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Why the U.S. dollar doesn’t always act like a haven when geopolitical tensions rise – MarketWatch

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One of these things is not like the other: Treasurys, gold and the U.S. dollar.

Good for you if you picked the dollar. Unlike those other two assets, the U.S. currency didn’t seem to attract much buying interest as investors shunned global stocks at the end of last week and went looking for safety following a U.S. military strike that killed a top Iranian military commander and heightened Middle East tensions.

“Increased tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lift the dollar — at least against non-major currencies — although we tend to see these sorts of geopolitical rows favoring the yen and Swiss franc first and foremost,” wrote Steven Barrow, head of G-10 strategy at Standard Bank, in a Monday note.

On Friday, gold jumped and Treasury prices soared, yanking down yields, as global equities sold off in the wake of the strike. Gold

GC00, -0.11%

 continued to gain ground on Monday, though Treasury yields edged higher as U.S. stocks put in a mixed performance, signaling that Middle East jitters were fading. The S&P 500

SPX, -0.28%

 edged up 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average

DJIA, -0.42%

 was little-changed after both indexes booked losses on Friday.

Read: What stock-market investors need to know about intensifying U.S.-Iran tensions

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index

DXY, +0.23%,

a gauge of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was off 0.2% Monday at 96.665 after ending 2019 on a soft note. The index saw little movement overall on Friday as stocks stumbled, with a modest gain by the U.S. currency against the euro

EURUSD, -0.3318%,

which has a nearly 58% weight in the index, offset partly by a sharp gain for the Japanese yen

USDJPY, +0.27%,

which is weighted at around 14%.

The dollar rose 0.1% versus the euro on Friday but tumbled 0.4% versus the yen. The dollar was virtually unchanged versus the franc

USDCHF, +0.0206%

 on Friday after setting a 15-month low versus the Swiss currency on New Year’s Eve, according to FactSet data.

The dollar was up 0.3% on Monday after earlier slipping to a 2 ½-month low below ¥108. The dollar was off 0.5% versus the Swissie, however, fetching 0.968 franc.

The yen and the Swiss franc have long enjoyed reputations as havens during periods of geopolitical stress. Analysts have attributed the strength in part to the large current-account surpluses, measures of excess savings in the economy, carried by both countries. That translates into large holdings of foreign assets by investors in Japan and Switzerland and, the expectation goes, that those investors are quick to repatriate some funds when the going gets rough, lifting their respective currencies.

That doesn’t mean the U.S. dollar, the world’s reserve currency, doesn’t have appeal of its own.

Its haven-like properties, however, seem to “really come to the fore when there’s a global liquidity crunch, as we saw back in 2008, and traders/investors scramble to secure dollars,” Barrow wrote.

“When, instead, geopolitical tensions arise that do not tighten liquidity conditions, the dollar is more likely to fall against other major havens, such as the yen and Swiss franc, and will probably trade sideways against the euro,” said Barrow, who expects the dollar to lose around 5% to 10% in broad trade-weighted terms in 2020.

A weaker buck appears to be the consensus call heading into 2020, though skeptics contend that factors that have previously frustrated dollar bears continue to underpin the currency. These include a domestic economy that still outshines its international peers as well as higher U.S. yields, despite the Federal Reserve’s series of three rate cuts last year.

Related: Why U.S. dollar bears could be thwarted in 2020

The “initial setting” coming into 2020 “is that U.S. yields and interest rates are high enough to support the dollar,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, in a Sunday note. But he worried that the advantage could be offset by a “decaying” U.S. trade position that goes beyond concerns over the U.S.-China relationship.

A decline in world exports and falling U.S. sales abroad means less demand for dollars to finance transactions, he said, arguing that in the big picture, “dollar atmospherics” are unclear. More questions than answers surround President Donald Trump’s pending impeachment trial, deepening conflict with Iraq and other factors on the U.S. dollar.

“Our best guess is for a directionless dollar early on as the various storylines sort themselves out,” Weinberg said. “The drop in world trade seemingly is not over. That points to downside risks for the greenback.”


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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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