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Why this money manager has the confidence to recommend investors 'stay calm' – The Globe and Mail

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John Zechner.The Globe and Mail

John Zechner has seen his share of market downturns in his nearly 40 years managing money. It’s that experience that gives him the confidence to recommend investors “stay calm” during the latest market rout – and start buying if they have the stomach for more volatility.

“We’ve seen buying opportunities like this before, where stocks seem to discount the absolute worst-case scenario and, in the end, what we’ve ended up with are some pretty good buying opportunities,” says Mr. Zechner, chairman and lead equity manager at J. Zechner Associates, which oversees more than $1-billion in assets.

“It’s not like we don’t have some bad news in front of us,” adds Mr. Zechner, citing the trajectory of rising interest rates that threaten to push the U.S. and Canadian economies into a recession. Still, he says he believes the market has already priced in at least a moderate economic downturn and investors are pessimistic – a sentiment that has been associated with market bottoms in the past.

“We also don’t see the same type of excesses as in past economic downturns and therefore believe any recession will be short and shallow,” he says, adding that the job market is still strong, corporate balance sheets are in good shape and inventories of most major consumer goods are low by historical standards.

“Bottom line, the risk-reward trade-off in stocks has improved dramatically since the beginning of the year despite higher interest rates and increased economic risks.”

Investors in his firm’s Canadian balanced fund have been well positioned for the recent market swings. The fund, which includes about 50 per cent equities, 35 per cent bonds, 5 per cent preferred shares and 10 per cent cash, has seen total returns of 5.3 per cent over the past year, as of June 30, and an annualized return of 6 per cent over the past three years. The fund’s mix compares with an allocation of about 45 per cent equities, 35 per cent bonds, 5 per cent preferreds and 15 per cent cash at the start of this year.

The Globe and Mail recently spoke to Mr. Zechner about what he’s been buying and selling, and the smart stock tip he gave to his barber a few years back.

Describe your investing style.

Our core equity investment style has always been “top down” growth, meaning we first look at macro variables such as economic growth, profits and interest-rate trends before focusing on sector weights and individual stock picks. In terms of stock selection, we have a bias toward GARP (growth at a reasonable price) but will also add cyclical exposure such as energy, metals and industrials, depending on our outlook.

What have you been buying or adding in recent months?

We expect to see a peak in inflation soon and probably less “hawkish” behaviour from central banks than markets expect. With that in mind, we’ve been adding back to growth names in sectors such as technology (particularly semiconductors), communications services and health care, mostly in the U.S. We’ve also been buying depressed names in the consumer sector, including auto names such as Magna MG-T, Martinrea MRE-T and General Motors GM-N. Auto inventories are quite low, and manufacturers will need to ramp up again once the semiconductor shortage is resolved. Another name we’ve been adding to is Ski-Doo maker BRP DOO-T. The stock is acting as though we’re heading into a massive downturn and consumers won’t spend again. I’m finding lots of those types of opportunities. We’ve also been adding back some oil names on the recent weakness, including Crescent Point Energy CPG-T, Whitecap Resources WCP-T and Arc Resources ARX-T. Crescent Point is a stock we sold out of entirely at $13 in the spring and bought it back recently at $8.50.

What have you been selling/trimming in recent months?

We did lighten a bit on the natural gas, base metals and gold stocks recently, as investors began worrying about economic growth. Some copper names we trimmed included Teck Resources TECK-A-T, First Quantum Minerals FM-T and Hudbay Minerals HBM-T. We didn’t have a big position in the Canadian banks, but I did lighten a bit there too. I sold out of CIBC CM-T and trimmed Scotiabank BNS-T, which is the only name I hold in that sector right now. I just thought some of the tailwinds of the past two years for the banks are probably headwinds over the next couple of quarters.

What is the best stock tip you’ve given a friend or family member?

He’s not a family member, but in 2012 my barber asked me for my best stock idea, and I suggested Microsoft MSFT-Q. The company was out of favour at the time and trading at low multiples, but I felt it had longer-term potential. I’m not sure if he ever bought it – I didn’t ask, and I lost touch with him since the pandemic – but the stock has gone from about $25 then to about $250 today, which is a pretty good return if he did buy it.

This interview has been edited and condensed.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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