The first debate is over, and President Biden’s faltering performance prompted much hand-wringing among Democrats. How likely is it that former President Donald J. Trump will win the November election?
As a citizen and as a voter, I care about this question. But as an investor, I’m indifferent — or at least I’m trying to be.
Fundamentally, the markets don’t care who wins. Stocks rose early Friday after a favorable inflation report only to give up a little ground later, while the odds of another Democratreplacing Mr. Biden jumped on PredictIt, an election prediction market. Even with this turmoil, financial markets seem utterly unruffled by political developments.
Momentous as this election may be, stocks did well under President Trump and they are doing well under President Biden — not necessarily because of any of their policies.
The harsh truth is that the market is amoral and largely apolitical. Most people have been better off financially if they disregarded politics entirely.
Staying in the Market
Consider three hypothetical investors with different views about politics and finance, in a study by Jeff DeMaso, editor of The Independent Vanguard Adviser, a newsletter focused on Vanguard funds.
Each investor started with $10,000 at the beginning of 1977. They were free to move their money between the Vanguard 500 stock index fund and the Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market fund.
One person held the Vanguard stock fund only when a Democrat was in the White House. Another trusted the stock fund only during Republican administrations. The third was apolitical in her investing life and held the Vanguard 500 fund at all times.
Here are the results for each portfolio from January 1977 through May 2024:
Note that during that period, Democrats and Republicans held the presidency almost the same number of years: 24 for Republicans vs. 23.5 years (and counting) for Democrats. So someone who invested only during Republican presidencies had a slight time advantage.
But the market has done better under Democratic presidents than Republicans — not just since 1976 but all the way back to 1900.
Don’t make too much of that. There haven’t been enough presidencies to make a statistically valid conclusion. What is clear is that stocks prospered under both political parties, and that by staying in the market through 12 presidential terms, the apolitical investor benefited from the marvelous effects of compound returns with reinvested dividends in a generally rising market.
But remaining in the market isn’t always easy. Despite the market’s upward tendency, big declines happen with disturbing regularity, but at unpredictable times. It doesn’t seem to matter who the president is.
For example, from Oct. 13, 2007, until March 13, 2009, during the financial crisis spanning the Bush and Obama administrations, the S&P 500 lost about half of its value. In February and March 2020, at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the last year of the Trump administration, the S&P 500 fund fell more than 30 percent. And in the nine months through September 2022, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation in the current, Biden administration, the S&P 500 fund lost about 24 percent.
Sometimes, the S&P 500 ended up lower during a presidential administration than when it started. That happened in the Nixon, George W. Bush and Hoover administrations. Avoiding stocks during those entire presidencies would have been a good move, but then you would also have had to know when to get back into the market. Alas, no one knows in advance when the market will rise or fall, especially not the Wall Street gurus who make predictions every year.
And Yet
There are many other valid ways of investing in an election year. I don’t recommend them, but I follow them.
I’d place most of them under the rubric of market timing — investing jargon for buying and selling at opportune moments — a practice that can be immensely profitable for those capable of doing it reliably. Most people, including market professionals, can’t manage that feat consistently, however. I certainly can’t.
Even so, there’s an enormous cottage industry on Wall Street devoted to predicting whether the overall market, or particular sectors, will rise or fall.
Here’s a thumbnail summary of the current wisdom, such as it is. It’s based on the assumption that the two current candidates continue their campaigns.
The consensus is that as long as there’s no landslide victory for either party — so neither controls the White House and both houses of Congress — the markets will be fine.
Still, under those circumstances, if there’s a Trump victory: Expect more and higher tariffs, which could disrupt trade and be inflationary, and hurt “the consumer discretionary, industrials, and information technology sectors,” in the view of UBS, the financial services company. Mr. Trump would probably manage to lower taxes and increase the budget deficit, stimulating the economy but, again, goosing inflation — which could lead to higher interest rates. There is likely to be less regulation, with sectors like fossil-fuel energy and financial services benefiting.
If Mr. Biden is re-elected but Democrats don’t control Congress, the status quo continues. Expect greater regulation (though the Supreme Court on Friday limited the executive branch’s regulatory powers) and higher taxes for wealthy people and companies than under Mr. Trump, along with executive orders aiding “companies within industrials, materials, and utilities focused on renewables and energy efficiency,” according to UBS.
A landslide giving control of both the White House and Congress for either party would be unexpected and could disrupt the markets. Mr. Biden might be able to achieve legislative feats that have been out of reach. The probability of tax increases on the rich and on corporations rises. The chance of positive outcomes for clean energy companies increases, while banks and fossil-fuel companies will have a tougher time, or so the Wall Street thinking goes.
A Trump landslide would be the most unsettling outcome from a purely financial standpoint because he could impose policies that might radically change the way business has been done, and life has been run, in the United States. The New York Times is covering the plans underway for a second Trump administration. I won’t get into details here.
Neither a Trump landslide — or a Democratic one — has “been priced into the markets,” Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist for Ameriprise Financial, said in a briefing for journalists. “If we wake up on Nov. 6 and it looks like we have a one-party kind of control of Congress, I would expect volatility to increase.” But, he added, the markets are likely to recover rapidly. History tells us, Mr. Saglimbene said, that the market will refocus on interest rates and corporate profits “once it moves past the election cycle.”
What if another Democrat runs and wins? The same logic holds. Some policies will change, the markets may initially be flustered, but the search for profits will triumph in the end.
A Caveat
“This time is different” is rarely true in investing. But every so often, things really are different.
My assumptions about the markets and investing are based on a central premise: that the legal, economic, social and political system that has prevailed until now will continue, with some evolution but without a major break, well into the future. Mr. Trump has promised to “undo foundations of American democracy and to rule as authoritarians in other countries have,” as my colleague David Leonhardt has written.
Hedging against that possibility isn’t merely a financial issue, of course. Holding some gold, which I don’t do now, might be wise if the foundations of American democracy are shaken. Holding stocks and bonds from other countries in low-cost index funds, which I always do to further diversify my portfolio, might be urgent in a U.S. crisis. Holding extra cash might be a smart move.
But, oddly, because the United States is so important globally, past crises here have shaken up foreign markets, too, and in times of trouble, where are you going to go for safety? Invariably, since World War II, it’s been the United States, strengthening U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, not weakening them.
Up to a point, that dynamic can be expected again. But only up to a point. I’m hoping we won’t find out where that point is.
So I’m not claiming that it makes no difference who wins. It matters a great deal. Vote, by all means.
But tune out politics when you turn to investing. You are likely to end up wealthier than if you base your financial decisions on political convictions.
With increased adoption of cryptocurrencies and proliferation in the online gaming industry, Bitcoin casinos are becoming increasingly common. Bitcoin, being one of the alternative currencies, may offer immense advantages in security, anonymity, and speed of every transaction, from appealing to new and seasoned players. The following article will outline the main benefits of using Bitcoin for online casino betting and will describe in detail how this cryptocurrency enhances gaming.
For those interested in exploring the benefits of Bitcoin gaming, theonlinecasinos offers a carefully curated list of reliable Bitcoin casinos. Their guide helps players find the best options available, ensuring a seamless, secure, and rewarding gaming experience.
1. Speed of Transaction
The main benefit linked to the use of Bitcoin in online casino betting is that it possesses high transaction speed. Unlike the bank transfers and card payments, which take several hours or even days, Bitcoin transactions take just minutes.
Why does this matter?
Fast transactions equal the ability for players to fund their accounts straight away with no need for confirmation. Since some gamers just want to get started immediately, or just simply cash out and go, this can come pretty in handy. While most bank transfers involve verification by means of a financial intermediary that is likely to be slow, Bitcoin involves a decentralized network of computers handling processing without any interference from an intermediary.
2. Savings on Fees
Deposits and withdrawals have made it possible for players to cut down or totally eliminate fees imposed by financial institutions through Bitcoin. Banks, credit organizations, and networks of all kinds impose a fee on any transaction, but especially international ones. Due to the fact that this is a network where users make transactions directly, the network fees for Bitcoin are minimal.
How Does This Affect Players?
The lower fees translate to savings that the player will make every time a transfer is made. There are some online casinos that absorb even this negligible Bitcoin network fee; thus, this makes deposits and withdrawals absolutely free for players. To players usually performing lots of transactions or large quantities, this difference in fees may prove critical.
3. Improved Security and Data Protection
Bitcoin uses blockchain technology, one of the most secure and transparent systems in the world. All the transactions involved in blockchain are encrypted; hence, fraud and hacking have almost nil chances of being performed. Furthermore, there is no necessity for sharing personal data while using Bitcoin for online betting as your card number or bank details will not come into play.
Anonymity and Privacy Protection
In the case of Bitcoin, players can preserve anonymity, since for a transaction, one needs only a Bitcoin address. Hence, Bitcoin casinos are true Catch-22 for those who value privacy in financial operations and want to avoid unnecessary checks from banks and other institutions.
4. Fewer Restrictions and Regulations
A lot of countries ban gambling or strictly regulate any operations including online casino transactions. This may raise serious barriers for players to access their favorite platforms or even to get accounts suspended. Bitcoin transactions do not go through the banking system and therefore are not regulated like traditional money. This means greater freedom for users.
Benefits to International Players
For players whose countries have restricted gambling, Bitcoin is an easy way around any legal restrictions. For people in countries with unfinished developed banking or those, due to which one can’t access every type of payment, Bitcoin casinos are a great way to access different kinds of bets.
5. Bonuses and Special Offers for Bitcoin Users
Most online casinos welcome the use of Bitcoin by giving bonuses for cryptocurrency choices. In many cases, higher welcome bonuses, cashback on deposits, free spins within the slot machines, and others are common.
How Does This Benefit Players?
The Bitcoin bonus can increase the player’s budget very much and bring extra value to players. Online casinos are happy to see this cryptocurrency, as it cuts some transaction processing costs for them, either. Because of that, promotion activities targeting depositors and withdrawers of Bitcoins can be regularly found.
6. Bitcoin for Gaming Bankroll Management
Being a cryptocurrency, Bitcoin allows players to have flexible banking of their bankroll. Many users keep their winnings in the form of Bitcoins, since it can surge in price. This adds the opportunity to earn extra income from its volatility when Bitcoin prices surge upwards.
Example of Bankroll Management
Using Bitcoin Many players keep their winnings in Bitcoin, due to the fact that its price might go up. In this case, casino winnings create passive income. But one should keep in mind that Bitcoin’s price also goes down, so this strategy is to be used with care.
Financial independence is an important component of success. To avoid wasting everything, you need to be able to save and invest. Thanks to this, it will be possible to create a financial cushion. You can get additional income with the help of brokers. Every adult can register on the Trade-X website and start trading activity. The latter is based on the conclusion of transactions for the purchase and sale of material values, currency, contacts and shares of well-known companies. As reviews show, the broker sets a minimum commission and charges the trader a certain amount after a successful profit. With the right approach and the ability to analyze data, the trader receives a tangible profit from his deals.
Let’s consider what the trader’s work is and read the real comments of Trade-X clients.
Recommendations and reviews about Trade-X
Choosing a source of income, many people monitor websites and look for what they write about the broker in reviews. After all, safety on the Internet, especially when entering your personal data and bank cards is very important. Newcomers who are just entering the market are especially concerned. It is known that the Trade-X company is officially registered in London and acts according to the legislation. It carries out work with an exchange expert and a hedge fund, has more than 200 assets. Trading conditions, including commissions and spreads, are transparent, which does not allow the broker to change them in its favor.
Participants of Medium, Linkedin, Reddit platforms often write good reviews that no fraudulent schemes were observed on the sites, and the support service always responded quickly to questions and any difficulties, if they arose. The broker company has an arsenal of trading tools, signals and training materials, where everyone can understand the nuances of the profession for free. The reviews also say that the terminals work well without delays, price movements are displayed on the charts. By the way, you can monitor the status of the launched order both from your computer and from your phone by installing the Trade-X broker application.
Features of cooperation with the provider of trading platforms
The provider offers trading platforms with access to many financial instruments. It is a kind of analytical center with access points to currencies.
The following are the features of operations:
Ease of management of the personal account and the site as a whole for novice depositors and professionals.
Analysis tools: different timeframes, indicators and analytical tools, which simplifies predicting and planning transactions.
Minimal costs. Trade-X brokers provide competitive spreads on major assets, as well as no commissions for certain types of accounts, which can be beneficial for traders with frequent trades.
24/7 market access: support for 24/7 trading, especially for cryptocurrencies and some international markets.
Margin trading and leverage: Trade-X offers leverage to help increase trade volume, although it also increases risk.
Automation and trading robots: integration with trading robots and algorithmic systems is supported, allowing for automated trades.
Security: state-of-the-art technology to protect funds and data, such as encryption and two-factor authentication.
Training and support: video tutorials, personalized mentoring, group webinars, literature.
Access to the platforms is open to adults who have completed the registration and document verification process. The minimum deposit is 500 dollars. After depositing this amount, you can start investing in any asset. You can follow the course of events by connecting to mobile Internet from anywhere in the city and even in the country. They write in the reviews that it is very convenient. The international resource Trade-X operates in 197 countries, so entry is free for those wishing to invest in the most popular resources. In case of difficulties with authorization, you can use the site mirror or connect VPN services.
What to trade on Trade-X site
More than 200 assets are presented on the site. It is easy to get confused when choosing from such an arsenal. However, experienced participants of the investment market recommend choosing currency pairs. In any case, it is necessary to be aware of possible rate drops or growth. You can learn this from the news, the current chart and your observations.
The most common trading options on the Trade-X website:
Currency pairs, which are the ratio of the prices of two currencies.
Resources: gas, oil, ores, metals.
Stocks: a share of ownership in a company.
Futures: a contract on future purchase.
Trading on the stock exchange for beginners most often starts with currency pairs – they seem more familiar, clear and predictable. It is not difficult to calculate the dynamics of quotations with the large availability of tools and comprehensive assistance from the administration. Visual representation of price movements is significant for a trader, and the latest news in the world economy provides an additional stimulus for correct calculation of ask and bid.
Trade-X services have long been considered the gold standard of the industry. Since its foundation, the online broker has not stopped its development even for a day or an hour. Its services are becoming more and more technological and interesting for users. This allows to get a significant increase in the client base. Positive reviews allowed the company to stand out among other trading platforms, and assigning a personal manager to you will allow you to feel more confident if you are just at the start of trading.
NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.
“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”
Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.
Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.
Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.
In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.
The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.
And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.
