As Canadians close the door to 2022 and look ahead to the new year, many may be hopeful they can also look forward to good news when it comes to COVID-19.
But will 2023 be the year the emergency phase of the pandemic is declared over and that Canada recognizes the virus as endemic?
It turns out, declaring or deciding that a virus is endemic is not a straightforward or clearly-defined practice.
But if such a declaration is made in Canada in the coming year, some infectious diseases experts say they are concerned about how this could affect people’s attitudes and behaviours regarding the virus.
While the definition of COVID-19 endemicity may be unclear, SARS-CoV-2 has proven it is capable of presenting new surprises and challenges that can have significant impacts on the health of Canadians and the operation of health-care systems across the country, says Dr. Raywat Deonandan, epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Ottawa.
“I think we’ve learned that there’s still a lot more to learn.”
How does a country determine if a virus is endemic?
An endemic virus refers to the “constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area,” according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC).
But making the official designation of a virus as endemic is not necessarily a scientific endeavour, but rather is more “political” and can vary, says, an epidemiologist at the University of Ottawa.
“There is not a set of criteria that we can use to define endemicity,” she said.
“It is very different from defining a pandemic.”
Infectious diseases specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch agreed, saying the official designation of a virus as endemic in a country is “not all scientific.”
“A lot of it is based on politics, on perception, and different places might come up with different definitions,” he said.
“I don’t know how globally we’re going to define this, but I do know that it’s important that we not bury our head in the sand and ignore that it’s there.”
The last year has proven the most deadly for the disease in Canada, with over 19,000 deaths recorded to date, according to federal data.
2022 also saw a massive increase in the number of Canadians infected with the virus after the Omicron variant emerged in late 2021 and tore through communities and countries across the globe.
More than 70 per cent of Canadians have likely been infected with COVID-19 since Omicron arrived, compared to less than five per cent of the population who had contracted COVID-19 before Omicron, according to blood test studies funded by the federal government through the national COVID-19 Immunity Task Force.
In addition, Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, told Global News in a year-end interview new federal data also shows about 15 per cent of people in Canada who self-report contracting the virus can experience prolonged symptoms.
While the risks of contracting long COVID are still unknown, the high numbers of Canadians who have been infected with the virus coupled with the fact 83 per cent of Canadians have received at least two doses of the vaccine means many people have acquired so-called hybrid immunity, which some studies have shown provides enhanced protection, Tam said.
And while this is good news for Canada, the fact that COVID-19 immunity wanes over time means it’s still too early to declare the emergency over, Bogoch said.
“The virus continues to mutate as viruses do, and we aren’t entirely sure if another variant will emerge that might undo some of the good that we’ve seen happen through vaccination… and hybrid immunity,” he said.
“Is there going to be another variant that emerges that causes more widespread harm? The answer is maybe. And I think it’s unwise to be overconfident that the worst is behind us.”
What role does data play in determining if a virus is endemic?
Data and surveillance that provides information about how a virus is behaving and changing in a population is key to determining responses, including on decisions about whether it remains an emergency situation, Deonandan said.
But Canada is among many countries that have seen a significant reduction in testing for COVID-19, due to provinces and territories adopting testing policies that rely mainly on rapid tests to detect the virus, which are not tracked.
That means there is less data available to track and understand the impact of the virus, he said.
“It hobbles our ability to explain to the public the status of the disease.”
While some surveillance of the virus does remain, including wastewater testing and some official PCR testing, the only significant signal that a new wave of the virus is present is hospital admissions, Deonandan said.
“That reduces all of the arguments down to what we see in the hospital, which is unfortunate because the argument should be about what we see in the community, but we don’t have a sense of what’s happening in the community.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been raising concern about a global drop in surveillance of COVID-19, and has warned this could open the door to a new variant of concern that could cause “significant mortality.”
For the last several months, WHO officials have been urging countries to beef up tracking, testing and sequencing of COVID-19, following a marked decline in surveillance measures as public health restrictions have been relaxed worldwide.
WHO has even added caveats to its weekly epidemiological reports on global COVID-19 circulation and case numbers, noting that any trends “should be interpreted with due consideration of the limitations of the COVID-19 surveillance systems.”
Bogoch says this drop in surveillance and data collection is “problematic” and a “major issue” in Canada and around the world.
“The less data we have, we’re wandering blindly into who knows what, and that can only harm us,” he said.
How declaring COVID endemic could affect responses to the virus
Given that virtually all former public health restrictions have been lifted across Canada, an official declaration of COVID-19 being endemic is unlikely to change much, Sulis said.
But she is concerned about the message such a declaration could send to the public.
“It is important to understand that saying that a disease is endemic doesn’t mean it is no longer a public health problem, because it is,” she said.
Diseases like tuberculosis and malaria are considered endemic in parts of the world where they continue to infect and kill millions of people.
When people talk about Canada moving into an endemic phase of COVID-19, it implies a level of success over the virus, Sulis said.
“But it is not, because endemic diseases still require policies, still require a structured response,” she said.
“It doesn’t mean we can stop bothering about those responses.”
If governments decide to change their messaging to say the virus is endemic, she believes the result could be “problematic.”
Deonandan echoed these concerns, saying he worries about the way the word endemic is used and the implications it can evoke.
“It seems to be an excuse by policymakers to do nothing just because something is endemic… hands up, we can’t do anything about this,” he said.
“High levels of endemicity are not good, and there are things we can still do to push those numbers down if we want to.”
How COVID-19 might impact Canada and the world in 2023
Health Canada says surveillance indicators, including clinical and wastewater testing, show that SARS-CoV-2 is still circulating across the country, and while Canada is past the peak of the last COVID-19 resurgence, “it is too soon to let our guard down.”
The federal agency also said variations in population-level of immunity and current global trends suggest that an uptick in COVID-19 could occur in the new year.
Genetic sequencing data that is available shows continuing increases in immune evasive variants, notably BQ.1 and BQ1.1, while the previously dominant BA.5 lineage variants are declining, said Anna Maddison, a spokesperson for Health Canada and the Public Health Agency of Canada, in a statement to Global News.
“With the increased prominence of these variants in Canada, at a minimum we could see a slower decline and higher plateaus in the number of infections as well as hospital admissions in Canada, as this respiratory virus season plays out.”
The situation in China could also play a major role in the evolution of the virus, as millions of people are now suddenly being exposed to the virus following the decision by the Chinese government to abandon its zero-COVID policy.
Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease doctor and professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, says she is “very worried” about the situation in China, and how it could lead to new variants of concern that could pose a global threat.
“It’s true that variants do emerge when there’s rapid circulation among a lot of people, and as it is, it is very likely that there could be a new variant emerging from China,” she said.
Deonandan noted that the outbreak in China means about 10 per cent of the world’s population is about to become exposed to COVID-19 for the first time, due to low vaccination levels in that country.
This could have an impact on western countries like Canada that are now taking a “laissez-faire approach to COVID management,” he said.
“I think it’s likely that a new immune evasive variant will emerge, causing further waves,” he said.
“But the good news is that the vaccines continue to work against the worst outcomes. And if we continue to boost and we don’t see any bad effects from boosting, then the ability to curtail transmission should be maintained to some extent as well.”
Bogoch says the key message about the coming year when it comes to COVID-19 is that a lot of uncertainty remains, which means ongoing vigilance is necessary.
“Of course, we all hope that the worst is behind us, and we know that the vaccines have stood the test of time in terms of protecting us against hospitalization and death throughout the entire pandemic, regardless of what variant we’re dealing with,” he said.
“But I think we still have to communicate uncertainty as to what lies ahead, because the virus does continue to mutate as expected. And there may be other variants that emerge that are unfortunately more harmful than normal right now.”
TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?
It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.
Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.
And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.
Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.
Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.
Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.
“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.
Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.
“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.
“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”
Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.
“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.
“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”
Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.
In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.
“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.
Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.
“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.
Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.
Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.
“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.
“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”
Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.
A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.
“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.
Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.
“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.
“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.
Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.
Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.
Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.
Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.
“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”
The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.
Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.
“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.
Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.
The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.
Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.
Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.
But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.
Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.
“It’s literally incredible.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.
The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.
It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.
CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.
The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.
Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
