If abortion is about to transform American politics, it’s only barely registering so far in the initial public reaction to a draft decision of the U.S. Supreme Court.
The early numbers don’t speak to a seismic shift in opinion. A faint rumble, perhaps.
We now have several polls to judge public reaction to last week’s bombshell news of an unpublished ruling by the country’s top court.
That leaked draft suggests the court is set to overturn a five-decade precedent that abortion access is a constitutional right and would instead let states set their own policy.
Democrats have quickly pivoted to abortion as a potential winning message in this fall’s state and congressional midterm elections.
The issue is seen as one way to galvanize young voters, whose recent disenchantment puts the majority party at risk of a severe wipeout.
Making abortion the ballot-box question would also allow Democrats to side with the majority of Americans who consistently tell pollsters they want Roe v. Wade to remain intact.
That strategy was on display this week as Democrats held a no-hope vote in Congress to pass a law on abortion rights, then turned it into a midterm message.
Vice-President Kamala Harris stood outside the Senate chamber and said abortion is now an issue for the voters to decide — the argument being that holding the Senate would allow Democrats to confirm more pro-choice judges and perhaps even pass a law if they win extra seats.
After Democrats were unable to pass a vote in the Senate this week on abortion rights, Vice-President Kamala Harris told reporters that the issue will now have to be decided by voters in this fall’s midterm elections. (Julia Nikhinson/Reuters)
Harris walked up to the cameras after her party fell short of a majority, as West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin opposed the abortion measure.
“[This] makes clear that a priority for all who care about this issue — the priority should be to elect pro-choice leaders,” the vice-president said.
“At the local, the state and the federal level.”
What the headline numbers say
U.S. President Joe Biden tweeted a similar message — as have numerous other Democrats who argue that only midterm election voters can prevent abortion rights from disappearing across an estimated two-dozen states if the Supreme Court draft decision holds when the ruling is ultimately handed down.
But those voters aren’t budging. At least not yet.
What several new polls say in a nutshell is that Biden remains unpopular; his party remains in peril; and those numbers haven’t changed at all.
WATCH | U.S. legal scholar says polls don’t back reversing Roe v. Wade:
Polls don’t support reversing Roe v. Wade, says U.S. legal scholar
9 days ago
Duration 3:29
U.S. law professor Kimberly Wehle says she wasn’t surprised by the draft opinion that the Supreme Court could overturn Roe v. Wade.
“The early results suggest this is not going to be some panacea for Democrats,” said Cameron Easley, a senior editor at the Morning Consult polling firm.
“Based on the data we’re seeing right now, I think the answer to that question is no.”
Presidential job approval is considered an indicator of the electorate’s mood — and Biden’s score remains weak and stagnant.
His 42 per cent approval rating is consistent across several large weekly surveys from two weeks earlier: by Morning Consult, Ipsos and YouGov.
There’s been a similar lack of movement in the congressional preference: The polling firms show no statistically significant change, with Democrats clinging to a tiny popular vote lead that would not likely be enough to retain control of Congress.
Now for the fine print
But a closer reading of the fine print of those surveys might give Democrats at least some miniature seedlings of hope.
There are signs of increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters. And that’s a fundamental factor in midterm elections, as voter participation tends to be low, and little shifts in turnout can trigger seismic differences.
The latest Morning Consult poll, from May 6 to 9, found a sudden tightening of the so-called enthusiasm gap after months of Republicans expressing far greater eagerness to vote this year.
It showed that the percentage of Democrats describing themselves as “extremely enthusiastic” about voting this year jumped eight percentage points from two weeks ago.
17% of 18-24 year olds turned out in 2014. Democrats got pummeled. <br><br>32% of 18-24 year olds turned out in 2018. Democrats won.<br><br>If young people turn out, Democrats win. <a href=”https://t.co/LBNdpKPsLP”>pic.twitter.com/LBNdpKPsLP</a>
Younger voters are key: They’re especially supportive of abortion access, and their level of enthusiasm increased in the latest Morning Consult poll.
Last month, Republicans held a more daunting advantage, with their voters 12 percentage points more likely to call themselves extremely enthusiastic, compared with seven points now.
And respondents across different surveys were also more likely to describe abortion as a top issue for them in determining their vote this fall.
Top Senate Republicans, including leader Mitch McConnell, are shown in Washington on Tuesday. Republicans are heavily favoured to win the House of Representatives in U.S. midterm elections this November. What’s less clear is the state of the Senate, which has significant power in shaping the courts. (Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters)
‘Some inklings that things could be changing’
“It could be a leading indicator of something,” said Kathy Frankovic, a representative of the YouGov firm.
“There are some inklings that things could be changing. But we really need to wait.”
There are such inklings in different polls. The Monmouth University Polling Institute says abortion has surged to the top tier of issues voters find important, suddenly ranking alongside the economy and ahead of other topics. The same pollster says opinion of the Supreme Court has plunged.
WATCH | U.S. braces for fallout from abortion decision:
U.S. braces for fallout from Roe v. Wade decision
9 days ago
Duration 3:12
As activists hunker down outside the U.S. Supreme Court and lawmakers weighing next steps, many are bracing for a court decision poised to overturn Roe v. Wade, which has protected the right to abortion across the United States since 1973.
There are other data points telling a similar, albeit subtle, story.
YouGov finds abortion still ranking as far less important than the economy, but it’s climbed up the priority list, particularly for Democrats — going from the top priority of just two per cent of Democratic voters to 10 per cent.
“That’s [a] pretty big shift,” Frankovic said.
That’s why Easley offers three caveats to his broader takeaway that the current numbers don’t look promising for Democrats.
His first caveat is that sudden burst of passion. That’s a shift, with the wobbling economy and their party struggling to pass signature promises through Congress.
Of the looming abortion fight, Easley said: “It has revved up Democratic intensity a little bit.”
His second caveat? Even a small shift in public opinion could make a difference in one or two close Senate races, and that could decide who controls that powerful chamber
Then there’s his third and final caveat: that nothing has happened yet. All we’ve seen is a draft court opinion, leaked to Politico.
Sarah Elder of Baltimore is shown protesting outside the U.S. Supreme Court last week over the draft ruling on abortion. She believes the decision will affect the midterm elections. (CBC)
Crowds of protesters came to the Supreme Court last week to express anger over the leaked draft decision. They include Sarah Elder from Baltimore, who called the report devastating and a sign of backsliding toward oppression.
She said she believes it will influence the midterms. “Hopefully it will inspire a lot of people that were on the fence to come out and vote for our cause,” she said.
But the actual court decision is only due by July, and the reality of state crackdowns on abortion would only be seen afterward. And that’s why Frankovic is withholding judgment on the political fallout.
“We really need to wait until the decision comes,” she said. “This is not the last word on it.”
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
