AstraZeneca’s (LON: AZN) Covid-19 vaccine was seen as key to fighting the pandemic globally, given its low cost and easy distribution, but its roll-out and uptake haven’t exactly been smooth. The shot was recently suspended from use in multiple countries including Germany, Denmark, Norway, and France due to cases of severe blood clotting following vaccinations. Separately, the shot’s lower reported efficacy figures, limited efficacy against some newer strains, and the company’s missteps during phase 3 trials have also hurt perception surrounding the vaccine. Although the AstraZeneca vaccine is likely to continue to play a role in vaccinating populations globally, the recent problems will give rival vaccines an edge. We think Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and German partner BioNTech’s vaccine could be a key beneficiary of AstraZeneca’s current setbacks for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the Pfizer shot is among the most effective Covid-19 vaccines (roughly 95% effective against original strain) Secondly, supply is scaling up nicely. The two companies intend to produce about two billion doses of their vaccine this year and have noted that they should have the capacity to produce as many as three billion doses in 2022, subject to demand. Moreover, Pfizer’s shot now appears to be a bit easier to store and distribute than before, with the FDA allowing it to be stored at more standard freezing temperatures, unlike the ultra-cold temperatures that were required at the time of U.S. approval. Now, unlike AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson who have pledged to not profit from their vaccines through the current pandemic, Pfizer’s shot is expected to have a positive EPS impact and this could help Pfizer stock if sales ramp-up further.
See our indicative theme on Covid-19 Vaccine stocks for more details on the performance of key U.S.-based companies working on Covid-19 vaccines.
[Updated 2/22/2021] Pfizer Vaccine Updates
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and its German partner BioNTech have indicated that they should have the capacity to produce as many as three billion doses of their Covid-19 vaccine in 2022, subject to demand. For perspective, Pfizer intends to produce about 2 billion doses of its shot this year and is projecting about $15 billion in Covid-19 vaccine revenues. That said, we don’t think there will be sufficient uptake for the additional capacity next year for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, the market for Covid-19 shots is becoming much more crowded. Besides Moderna and AstraZeneca who have been ramping up production of their shots, Johnson & Johnson recently received FDA clearance for its single-dose Covid-19 shot and the company is looking to produce as many as one billion doses this year. Vaccine specialist Novavax
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also appears to have a highly effective shot based on U.K. trials and is looking to produce about two billion doses annually. Even China’s Sinovac Biotech is looking to reach an annual capacity of 2 billion doses by June. Considering the strong planned supply of shots, there’s a good chance that a meaningful percentage of the global population will be inoculated against Covid-19 by the end of this year. In the U.S. for example, at the current rate that vaccines are being administered (2.15 million doses per day over the last week, per the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker), all adults who want a vaccine are likely to get one by the summer. Demand over 2022 could come from emerging markets, where pricing could be lower. Moreover, Pfizer’s vaccine, which needs to be stored at colder temperatures compared to rivals, could be less suitable for these markets. The Pfizer shot needs to be stored at freezing temperatures of -25 to -15 degrees Celsius, compared to the J&J
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shot which can be stored at a refrigerated temperature of 2 to 8 degrees Celsius.
See our indicative theme on Covid-19 Vaccine stocks for more details on the performance of key U.S.-based companies working on Covid-19 vaccines.
[Updated 2/22/2021] Pfizer Vaccine Updates
Last week, there were two positive developments relating to Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and its German partner BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine, and one possible negative development. Firstly, Pfizer says based on internal testing that its vaccine can tolerate warmer temperatures than initially specified, possibly making it easier to handle and distribute. Under current protocol, the vaccine is being stored and transported at ultra-cold temperatures of -80 to -60 degrees Celsius until five days before use, calling for specialized equipment and a longer thawing period. However, the company is now asking the FDA to allow the shot to be stored for up to two weeks at -25 to -15 degrees Celsius, enabling the use of more standard freezers. This could make the shot more accessible in rural areas and emerging markets that don’t have special freezers. That said, rival Moderna’s shot is still easier to handle, as it can be stored at standard freezer temperatures for as long as six months and remain refrigerated for up to 30 days.
Secondly, per a study conducted on 9,000 medical staff in Israel, a single dose of the Pfizer shot alone was about 85% effective in preventing Covid-19 infection between two and four weeks after inoculation. This is not far off from the roughly 95% efficacy showed under the two-dose regimen. This could effectively help to vaccinate more people quickly if the second dose of the shot can potentially be delayed or perhaps even avoided altogether. For perspective, Pfizer is looking to produce as many as 2 billion doses of the shot this year.
Separately, based on a lab study, Pfizer says that the South African strain of the novel coronavirus could cut the protective antibodies produced by its vaccine by two-thirds. Although this doesn’t necessarily mean that the shot will not be effective against the new strain, it is concerning. Considering this, the company is exploring developing an updated version of its shot or a booster shot.
See our indicative theme on Covid-19 Vaccine stocks for more details on the performance of key U.S.-based companies working on Covid-19 vaccines.
[Updated 12/3/2020] Emergency Use in the United Kingdom
Pfizer’s (NYSE: PFE) Covid-19 vaccine has been approved for emergency use in the United Kingdom, with initial shots likely to be given as soon as next week. The U.K is the first western country to ratify the shot and the country is expected to be allotted between four million to five million doses of the vaccine this year. For a perspective, Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech intend to manufacture up to 50 million doses this year. The U.K. rollout will be a crucial test of the logistics and distribution of the vaccine – which needs to be stored at ultra-cold temperatures using custom-made vaccine freezer boxes – and should give a sense of how effectively the company can scale up deployment globally. Pfizer has applied for emergency use authorization with the U.S FDA, which is likely to conduct its review on December 10th, with the vaccine likely to be available in limited quantities post that.
See our indicative theme on Covid-19 Vaccine stocks for more details on the performance of key U.S.-based companies working on Covid-19 vaccines.
As we’ve noted previously, the Covid vaccine is unlikely to meaningfully move the needle for Pfizer stock (see our update below). However, Pfizer stock still looks attractive at current levels. The availability of Pfizer & other Covid vaccines could mark the beginning of the end of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has reduced doctors’ visits for other ailments and delayed patients from seeking care. As vaccines are deployed and the recovery gathers pace, it should help Pfizer’s Biopharma segment, which includes oncology drugs, such as Ibrance, vaccines, such as Prevnar, and Pfizer’s newly approved biosimilars for some of the blockbuster drugs, including Humira and Avastin, aiding the stock. Our dashboard ‘Buy Or Sell Pfizer Stock’ provides the key numbers behind our thinking. Also, see our analysis Here’s Why Pfizer Stock Looks Inviting At $39 Levels
[Updated 11/10/2020] Why Pfizer’s Vaccine Won’t Move The Needle For The Stock
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and its German partner BioNTech indicated that their Coronavirus vaccine, dubbed BNT162b2, was over 90% effective at preventing Covid-19 infections among volunteers, based on early data from phase 3 trials. The results are surprisingly strong, considering that the U.S. FDA had set a baseline efficacy of just 50% for the approval for Covid-19 vaccines. While there is a possibility that the efficacy rate of Pfizer’s vaccine could change as more data comes in, the numbers are no doubt encouraging. The companies are on track to file an emergency use application with the U.S. FDA later this month if pending data indicate that the vaccine is safe. [1] The companies intend to manufacture up to 50 million doses this year, and as much as 1.3 billion doses in 2021. Two shots of the vaccine will be required per person.
While Pfizer stock was up by almost 8% following the news, we think it’s unlikely that the vaccine will meaningfully move the needle for the company for multiple reasons. (Related: Are Covid Vaccine Stocks Worth Investing In?) For perspective, Pfizer has agreed to supply the U.S. government with the vaccine at about $19.50 per dose, and it’s possible that average prices could be well below this, considering that pricing might be lower in emerging markets. Also, vaccines traditionally have lower profitability versus prescription drugs. Combined with the large public interest in facilitating vaccine access, these margins may face even more downward pressure. Considering that the vaccine is co-developed with BioNTech, any profits will likely be shared.
Competition is also likely to mount as there are likely to be several more successful vaccine candidates from other companies in the coming quarters. For example, clinical-stage biotech Moderna (NASDAQ
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: MRNA), which also uses an mRNA-based technology like the Pfizer vaccine, is slated to report efficacy data in the coming weeks. (related: How Will The Covid-19 Vaccine Impact Moderna’s EPS?) Pfizer’s vaccine could also face logistical issues, considering that the vaccine needs to be stored at a temperature of minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit. On the other hand, vaccines being developed by the likes of Oxford- AstraZeneca, Novavax, and others can be held at regular refrigerated temperatures. This could potentially limit the use of Pfizer’s vaccine to clinics and hospitals that have the appropriate storage facilities.
See our indicative theme of Covid-19 Vaccine stocks – which includes U.S.-listed pharma and biotech companies. The theme is up by about 630% year-to-date versus about 12% for the S&P 500.
[Updated 11/4/2020] Covid-19 Vaccine stocks
Our indicative theme of Covid-19 Vaccine stocks – which includes a diverse set of U.S.-based pharma and biotech companies developing Covid vaccines – is up by about 560% year-to-date, on an equally weighted basis, compared to the S&P 500 which has gained just about 4% over the same period. While most vaccine stocks declined last week, amid a broader sell-off in the markets, they are likely to come back into the spotlight as efficacy data from late-stage trials is expected from frontrunners Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) in the coming weeks. Below is a bit more on the companies in our theme of Coronavirus Vaccine stocks and their relative performance.
Novavax, a vaccine development company, began late-stage trials of its Covid vaccine in the U.K in September, and large-scale phase 3 trials are due to begin in the U.S. and Mexico this month. While the company doesn’t have any other products on the market yet, its flu vaccine NanoFlu could be ready for potential FDA approval. The company has received about $1.6 billion in funding from the Federal government. The stock has soared 2,000% year-to-date.
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Moderna , a clinical-stage biotech company, is carrying out phase 3 trials of its Covid-19 vaccine, completing enrollment of 30,000 participants. The company is likely to have data on whether its vaccine works or not by this month, and has noted that it would seek emergency approval from the FDA if the vaccine is at least 70% effective. The stock is up 253% this year.
Johnson & Johnson: Unlike most other vaccine candidates, which are likely to require two shots, J&J is targeting a single-dose vaccine. While the company had to pause trials in mid-October after an illness was reported in a volunteer, the company is now preparing to resume trials. The stock is down by -5.1% this year.
Pfizer is working with German partner BioNTech on a Covid-19 vaccine. The company is likely to have efficacy data from late-stage trials available shortly. The company could supply about 40 million doses in the United States in 2020 if the data is positive and regulators approve the vaccine. The stock is down by about -7.6% this year.
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The Canadian government says it will donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to fight the mpox outbreak in Congo and other African countries.
It says the donated doses of Imvamune will come from Canada’s existing supply and will not affect the country’s preparedness for mpox cases in this country.
Minister of Health Mark Holland says the donation “will help to protect those in the most affected regions of Africa and will help prevent further spread of the virus.”
Dr. Madhukar Pai, Canada research chair in epidemiology and global health, says although the donation is welcome, it is a very small portion of the estimated 10 million vaccine doses needed to control the outbreak.
Vaccine donations from wealthier countries have only recently started arriving in Africa, almost a month after the World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
A few days after the declaration in August, Global Affairs Canada announced a contribution of $1 million for mpox surveillance, diagnostic tools, research and community awareness in Africa.
On Thursday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said mpox is still on the rise and that testing rates are “insufficient” across the continent.
Jason Kindrachuk, Canada research chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said donating vaccines, in addition to supporting surveillance and diagnostic tests, is “massively important.”
But Kindrachuk, who has worked on the ground in Congo during the epidemic, also said that the international response to the mpox outbreak is “better late than never (but) better never late.”
“It would have been fantastic for us globally to not be in this position by having provided doses a much, much longer time prior than when we are,” he said, noting that the outbreak of clade I mpox in Congo started in early 2023.
Clade II mpox, endemic in regions of West Africa, came to the world’s attention even earlier — in 2022 — as that strain of virus spread to other countries, including Canada.
Two doses are recommended for mpox vaccination, so the donation may only benefit 100,000 people, Pai said.
Pai questioned whether Canada is contributing enough, as the federal government hasn’t said what percentage of its mpox vaccine stockpile it is donating.
“Small donations are simply not going to help end this crisis. We need to show greater solidarity and support,” he said in an email.
“That is the biggest lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic — our collective safety is tied with that of other nations.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.
The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.
Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.
“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”
The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.
A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.
Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.
“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.
Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.
The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.
“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.
Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.
The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.
“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.
Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.
Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.
A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
