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Will Canadian Banks Cut Dividends? The Pending Recession + Good Reads From The PF Community

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Hi everyone, I just realized that it’s been a while since I put together a good read from the personal finance community post, probably because it takes me a while to put together such articles. Anyway, it’s time to resurrect the good reads articles again.

People have been talking about the pending recession for over a year now. Some people believe that high inflation and high interest rates will trigger the global economy to slow down. Somehow, both the US and Canadian economy remain resilient so far in 2023.

As a reminder, some factors that can trigger a recession include:

  • high inflation
  • increasing interest rates
  • reduced consumer confidence
  • higher unemployment rate
  • reduced spending and investment activities

The biggest question is if the economy can continue to grow at a modest rate, instead of shrinking.

Despite the US and Canadian economies remaining quite resilient, we’re seeing some signs that a recession may be coming…

  • Companies are trimming forces – my company included
  • Overall economic outlook softness
  • A slowdown in consumer spending… many retailers have reported this in their earnings
  • A higher percentage of household income is going toward paying off debt

For people that are still in the accumulation phase, a recession may not necessarily be a bad thing – it will create buying opportunities; for people that are retired or close to retirement, a recession can be more problematic. This is why increasing your cash reserve, reducing equities exposure, and increasing bond exposure are recommended if you are retired or close to retirement.

Many dividend investors are curious whether or not Canadian banks will cut dividends. The Canadian banks have not been performing all that well the past year due to concerns over the Canadian real estate market and mortgages.

Canadian Big Five banks performance

In preparation for a potential economic slowdown, Canadian banks have been boosting provisions for bad loans. This is exactly what the Canadian banks did during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

If a recession does happen and people default on their mortgages, will the Canadian banks cut dividends?

Difficult to say.

My view? Canadian Big Five banks didn’t cut dividends during the financial crisis, they also didn’t cut dividends during the COVID-19 pandemic. Chances are, they will hold off on any dividend increases until the dust settles.

I believe the Canadian banks won’t cut dividends. Instead, I believe they’ll simply hold the payout steady.

But my prediction can only be 50% correct at best. I can be completely wrong!

So, what can dividend investors do? First, don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Make sure you are not over-exposed to Canadian banks. Diversification is important.

Since the Canadian economy is heavily tied to the financial and oil & gas sectors, it’s important to invest in other sectors like consumer staples, high tech, and consumer discretionary. Investing outside of Canada, therefore, is extremely important.

Good reads from the PF community

Here are some fantastic personal finance/investing related articles that I came across recently.

Mark at My Own Advisor wondered, Should you have 100% of your portfolio in stocks? – “DIY investors, readers and passionate investors know from my site that there is no universal answer for every investor, so it’s important to think through both the upsides and downsides when it comes to your investing plan… While a 100% equity investment portfolio could make sense for younger investors, decades away from retirement, keeping 100% of your portfolio in stocks as you enter retirement or remain in retirement could introduce unnecessary risk.

Joseph Carlson discussed things that you need to do before you sell a stock

GYM recently turned 40 and shared 40 Financial Lessons She has learned in 40 years – “Time IN the market is better than timing the markets. Stay invested, stick to your plan. This Visual Capitalist chart illustrates the pitfalls of timing the market. If your money wasn’t invested in the 10 best days of the market, you could lose more than half of your overall return on investment. From 2003 to 2022, $10,000 invested in the S&P500 would yield almost $65,000 but if you missed the 10 best days (which were mostly in 2008 and 2009), you would miss out on more than half of your investment returns than if you kept your money invested.” Congrats GYM on turning 40, you certainly shared similar 40 lessons that I’ve learned.

Mike at The Dividend Guy Blog came up with an interesting Retirement Withdrawal Strategy to avoid panic and enjoy life – “It’s no secret that utilities, REITs, and communications companies, especially telcos, are generous dividend providers. Utilities and telcos are usually mature businesses with stable streams of income, making wealth distribution logical. REITs are obligated to distribute most of their income. Add a few Canadian banks in the mix, you’d already have enough sectors to invest easily 60% of your portfolio, while complying with the “don’t exceed 20% in one sector” rule.

I really like the 17 Questions That Changed My Life from Tim Ferris – “The question I found most helpful was, “If I could only work two hours per week on my business, what would I do?” Honestly speaking, it was more like, “Yes, I know it’s impossible, but if I had a gun to my head or contracted some horrible disease, and I had to limit work to two hours per week, what would I do to keep things afloat?

I thoroughly enjoyed The paradox of the “perfect life” from Rad Reads – “Consider this thought experiment. You and I both aspire to lead rich and fulfilling lives. Good lives. Some might even say perfect lives. Let’s imagine that you worked assiduously to get that perfect life. You have the perfect job. Impactful, high-paying and the ability to be hybrid. You had the perfect home. Massive square footage, impeccably furnished and immaculately clean. You had the perfect spouse. Smart, sexy and a wonderful co-parent. You had the perfect body. Low BMI, 6-pack abs and a full head of hair. Things are perfect. Or are they? Just like the guy with $70 million who’s scared that he’ll have to fend off gold diggers – have you created a new set of worries?

With GIC rate at 5% or higher, is it a good idea to “invest” in GICs? Ben Felix explained why cash is a terrible long-term investment

Katie at Money With Katie explained How to avoid lifestyle creep, don’t live beyond your assets – “It wasn’t until I found myself in a peculiar economic position that a more helpful version of this rule emerged for me: Don’t live beyond your assets.Once I found myself graduating from a median income to a higher one, I straddled the line between two worlds: Do I maintain my exact same lifestyle and invest everything extra, or do I recognize that I can afford a little lifestyle creep?The hard part? There’s no rule of thumb for how to handle such a situation. I felt silly skimping on brand name orange juice, but I was also terrified of backsliding into the old, spend-y habits that used to drain my checking account every month.Just because I was making more money didn’t mean I was wealthy, and I struggled to find balance.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Amazon rejects plea to stop selling taxi roof signs as cab scam spreads across Canada

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After a long day at a work event in July, Kathryn Kozody was relieved when she spotted a car with a lit-up taxi sign.

She thought it was odd when the driver told her she’d have to pay her fare with a debit card. Still, a tired Kozody hopped in the car.

“I was like, ‘Fine, it’s kind of weird, but let’s go home,'” said Kozody, who lives in Calgary.

Nothing else seemed off — until the next day when she discovered that almost $2,000 was missing from her bank account. On top of that, her debit card had someone else’s name on it.

Kozody concluded that the taxi driver was a fraudster who, during the debit card transaction, recorded her PIN, stole her card and handed her back a fake.

“I started freaking out,” she said. “It’s terrifying when they have your debit card.”

It took Kozody about two weeks to get her money back from her bank, and she’s still rattled by the experience.

The day after taking what she thought was a ride in a taxi, Kathryn Kozody of Calgary found out someone had withdrawn almost $2,000 from her bank account. (James Young/CBC News)

“It really felt like an invasion of privacy and a violation to be a victim of this scam,” she said. “I really don’t want it to happen to anybody else.”

The taxi scam isn’t new; Toronto and Montreal have been seeing it for years. But the crime is becoming more widespread.

This summer, police in Calgary, Edmonton and at least five cities in southern Ontario, including Kingston and Ottawa, posted warnings online that they had received multiple reports of the scam.

Police and the Canadian Taxi Association say the fraudsters have a helping hand: with the click of a button, they can purchase a generic — but official looking — taxi roof sign on e-commerce sites like Amazon.

Edmonton Police posted this alert on Facebook in July, warning people about an ongoing taxi scam. The city’s police department says that it received about 10 reports of the scam that month. (Edmonton Police/Facebook )

The taxi association has asked Amazon, by far Canada’s most popular online shopping site, to stop making the roof signs so easily available.

“They do have a moral responsibility to at least sell the signs to individuals that are properly licensed,” said association president Marc André Way.

However, the U.S.-based company continues to sell the product to all customers.

“These lights are legal to sell in Canada,” Amazon told CBC News in an email.

‘Eye-popping’ numbers

The taxi scam has several variations but typically ends the same way: the victim pays with a debit card, then the scammer secretly steals it and hands the victim a similar but fake card. Shortly thereafter, money disappears from the victim’s account.

Ron Hansen, deputy chief of police in Sarnia, Ont., said his department received 12 reports of the scam in July, with one victim losing $9,900.

Toronto police report that since June 2023 the department has received 919 reports of the taxi scam, totalling $1.7 million in losses.

Jessica Chin King of Toronto said after a recent cab ride, she got a suspicious activity alert from her bank. She learned $600 had been withdrawn from her account. (Craig Chivers/CBC)

The numbers are “eye-popping,” said Toronto police detective David Coffey.

“When they do get a victim, they are quick to go right into the bank accounts. They’re quick to empty them out.”

Jessica Chin King of Toronto said just 15 minutes after a recent cab ride, she got a suspicious activity alert from her bank. Turns out, $600 had been withdrawn from her account.

“I was like, ‘Wow, I can’t believe that just happened.’ I was in shock,” said Chin King, whose bank later reimbursed the cash.

She said she too was fooled by the taxi sign atop the car.

“I was in the car with somebody who wasn’t a taxi driver. Anything could have happened,” she said. “I was thankful that it was only my bank [account] that was compromised.”

Taxi light for $35 on Amazon

CBC News bought a taxi sign from Amazon for $35. It has a magnetic strip on the bottom, so it easily sticks to the top of a car.

To power the light, an attached wire can be run through the driver’s window and plugged into the car’s auxiliary power outlet, also known as the cigarette lighter outlet.

The taxi association says licensed taxi drivers typically get their roof signs from speciality suppliers, and they are hardwired to the car — not powered via the cigarette lighter.

“When you see that … it’s obvious that it’s not a legitimate taxi,” said Way, the association president.

Last month, Way sent Amazon a letter on behalf of the Canadian Taxi Association, asking it to stop selling the product.

“This is not a safe, practical way to distribute the trusted ‘Taxi’ signs,” he wrote.

CBC News ordered this $35 taxi sign on Amazon. The attached wire can be run through the driver’s window and plugged into the car’s auxiliary power outlet, while the lights for licensed drivers are hardwired into the vehicle. (Sophia Harris/CBC News)

But Amazon told Way — and CBC News — the signs will remain on its site, because the company isn’t breaking any rules.

“It’s going to be quite difficult, I think, for anyone to stop Amazon from selling a product that is perfectly legal to sell,” said Toronto criminal lawyer, Daniel Goldbloom. “It’s true that these taxi signs can be used to commit scams, but kitchen knives can be used to commit murder — and we don’t stop retailers from selling those.”

But Way isn’t giving up hope.

He says the taxi association also plans to ask other online retailers, such as Temu and eBay, to stop selling the taxi signs and will lobby provincial governments for legislation that regulates the sale of the product.

However, Coffey said he believes the best way to fight the taxi scam is to educate people about it.

“Never, never give another person control of your debit card,” the detective said.

Victims Chin King and Kozody also want to spread the word.

“The more people know, the less likely it is to happen again to somebody else,” Kozody said.

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