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Will Canadian Real Estate Prices Cool This Winter? – RE/MAX News

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The COVID-19 pandemic shook the Canadian (and global) economy, causing business closures and job losses across many industries. But the public health crisis has failed to drive a stake through the Canadian real estate market – so far. Despite a slowdown at the height of the pandemic earlier this year, the nation’s housing sector has enjoyed a record-setting recovery from coast to coast, thanks in part to a combination of tech-savvy real estate agents, low interest rates and high demand. Although homebuyer trends are evolving, major urban centres and small towns are experiencing booming sales activity and rising prices.

With winter on the horizon, can the housing market maintain its upward trajectory? Some believe that pent-up demand has likely been exhausted, but that real estate prices will continue to edge higher across the country. What does the data say? Let’s explore some of the latest analysis and numbers to see what has been occurring in the broader Canadian real estate market, and what trends may emerge as we approach 2021.

Will Canadian Real Estate Prices Cool This Winter?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently published a report analyzing the real estate markets in the Group of Seven countries during the second quarter. Researchers revealed that Canadian residential real estate prices reported the biggest jump in the G7, rising 2.42 per cent from the previous quarter. The next closest in G7 is France, rising 1.71 per cent. This occurred despite soaring vacancy rates and very little immigration during the April-to-June period.

It is remarkable to see how much home valuations have increased and how sales have popped during an unprecedented public health crisis. Here are just some of the August 2020 average sales prices and the year-over-year growth based on Canadian housing market data:

  • Greater Toronto Area: $890,400 (+11.1%)
  • Greater Vancouver Area: $1,038,700 (+5.3%)
  • Ottawa: $517,800 (+19.9%)
  • Greater Montreal Area: $408,200 (+16.4%)
  • Halifax: $372,982 (+18.1%)

The unforeseen developments of 2020 may have stumped market watchers, but the upward trends make sense since a key factor helping in the recovery of the national real estate market has been an inventory shortage that surfaced long before COVID-19 reared its head in Canada. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), inventory levels fell to an all-time low of 2.6 months in August. This is the length of time it would take to liquidate the current stock of listings at the current sales rate.

Can Canada sustain this momentum heading into winter and 2021? RBC Economics recently published a report that suggested pent-up demand has been exhausted, which could mean the Canadian real estate market will lose some of this fierce momentum in the months to come. Despite the possibility of a slow down, the report suggests that prices will continue to climb.

“With pent-up demand now largely exhausted, we see activity cooling later this fall,” economist Robert Hogue wrote. “The pent-up demand created this spring proved a powerful driver of activity. Question is: how much longer can it be such a dominant factor? We think there’s probably little pent-up demand left to satisfy in most markets.”

The expectation for higher prices is in line with the RE/MAX Fall Market Outlook Report, which forecasted a continuation of growth in valuations and activity in most housing markets. But why? The Canadian real estate market has plenty of growth factors working in its favour:

  • Interest rates are at an all-time low.
  • Real estate agents are still utilizing virtual tools to facilitate transactions.
  • Some levels of pent-up demand continue to linger in the background.
  • The federal government has made it clear that it would not allow any substantial downturn in the industry.

Where to Buy in Canada

Whether homebuyers’ sights are set upon Atlantic Canada, the Greater Toronto Area, the Prairies of the West Coast, the Canadian real estate market is ripe with a wide range of opportunities for both new homebuyers and homeowners looking to upgrade. Now that more people are working remotely, many professionals are no longer confined to living within close proximity to their workplace, which is opening up a wave of growth everywhere – namely within small suburban or rural municipalities.

The Bank of Canada (BoC), which is anticipated to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for a few more years, projects that the road to recovery will be a long one. Despite the remaining roadblocks within the economy, including business closures and widespread job loss, the real estate sector is booming, suggesting that any significant price cooling activity is unlikely to correlate with Canada’s cooling temperatures. When it comes to the national real estate market, all signs point to a hot winter market ahead.  

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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