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Will Canadian Real Estate Prices Decline? Not Likely – RE/MAX News

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The strength of the Canadian real estate market has continued to prove itself time and time again during the pandemic. While we’re not out of the woods yet, we are expecting continued growth for the duration of 2020, with an active market for the foreseeable future and balanced conditions at the national level into 2021. This is great news for Canadians.

So why all the fear mongering by the CMHC?

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s Chief Economist Bob Dugan, told reporters at a press conference recently that the agency stands by its previous forecast in May that warned of a decline in Canadian house prices between nine and 18%.

“I’m not convinced that we have a sustainable basis for housing demand in the economic disturbance that’s going on related to COVID-19,” Dugan said. “That’s why I say I stand by the forecasts.”

We expressed our concerns over CMHC’s predictions in the spring, and Dugan’s latest statement continues to raise eyebrows – ours, and other industry insiders as well, as the Canadian housing market stays on its upward course.

While I can appreciate some of the reasoning that went into CMHC’s prediction, especially in the spring when so much was still unknown,  . The market data doesn’t support such a steep price decline, especially with the two largest real estate markets of Toronto and Vancouver continuing their upward momentum. The Prairies are facing different circumstances and challenges due to the resources sector, however Ontario and BC are expected to offset slower activity in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Have Remained Resilient

Nobody could have predicted the success of the Canadian real estate market in the wake of COVID-19. At the height of the pandemic, March and April 2020 experienced dramatic declines in activity, but transactions quickly resumed across the country as real estate professionals and consumers alike adapted to social distancing measures and embraced technology to continue transacting, despite disruptions to the economy and every facet of daily life.

Last month we at RE/MAX Canada revised our forecast for national average house price in 2020, increasing it to +4.6% from our original expectation of +3.6% at the end of last year.

In terms of declining prices, “the impact was on rent as opposed to home ownership,” said Benjamin Tal, Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets. His optimism in the Canadian housing market was due to continued low interest rates and strong pent-up demand. “Eighty per cent of jobs lost were in the service sector. Many of them were low-income and many of them were renters. So, the impact was on rent as opposed to home ownership,” he noted.

Economists Aligned in Strength of Housing Market

RBC Economics recently reported that a large-scale decline was unlikely. “The pandemic completely disrupted normal seasonal patterns by shifting activity from the spring to summer. With pent-up demand now largely exhausted, we see activity cooling later this fall. This should let some of the steam out of prices though not to the point of causing outright declines on a large scale.”

TD’s Beata Caranci also commented on Canada’s “swoosh” economic recovery and the housing market. The level of unemployment suggests the housing market should not be as active as it is. However, when you look at income levels, it all makes sense. Incomes today aren’t behaving like we’re in a recession, Caranci explained, and incomes are being supported at the same or at higher levels than in previous recessions. So, there’s a complete disconnect between the employment rate and income levels, which is adding fuel to the housing market.

So, if the real estate industry disagrees and economists disagree, just where is the CMHC getting its insight to support such a steep decrease?

Recently the Ontario Real Estate Association surveyed Ontarians, finding a strong majority think housing is an important (60%) or somewhat important (32%) contributor to the provincial economy recovery. They are now pushing on governments to help stimulate the market with incentives like a “Land Transfer Tax Holiday” to help get more homes on the market and address some of the supply issues the province in currently facing.

I do think we may see a “hangover” from the busy market we’re experiencing right now, but overall as we head into 2021, I think a prediction of more balanced conditions across the Canadian housing market is warranted. But an 18% decline in prices is highly unlikely.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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