Will coronavirus get the better of OPEC and its allies? - Aljazeera.com | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Business

Will coronavirus get the better of OPEC and its allies? – Aljazeera.com

Published

 on


Russia is delivering a sobering lesson in patience and the limits of influence to OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia as the cartel and its allies gather in Vienna for a two-day meeting kicking off Thursday to agree – or not – on how to respond to the spreading coronavirus outbreak.

In the weeks leading up to the gathering of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, the Saudis have reportedly pushed for an extension of existing output curbs as well as additional cuts of more one million barrels per day (bpd).

So far though, Russia – OPEC’s most crucial ally – has remained cagey about its willingness to sign on to that strategy.

On Tuesday, the group’s technical panel recommended a cut of 600,000 bpd to one million bpd as well as an extension to the end of 2020 current 2.1 million bpd curbs.

“If the cartel surprises to the upside, we might see a bit of relief for oil producers,” Jim Krane, energy analyst at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told Al Jazeera. ” If the Saudis can’t bring Russia on board, expect the depredations to continue.”

Prices of benchmark Brent crude are down around 20 percent this year, as concerns mount over how the coronavirus could dent global energy demand and exacerbate an existing supply glut.

Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that he is open to extending current production curbs which OPEC agreed to in December and are set to end in March. But Putin also said Russia is in no rush and could withstand a drop in crude prices.

That is bound to frustrate the Saudis given that the International Monetary Fund reckons the kingdom needs oil to trade at $82 to balance its state budget. Meanwhile, Moscow needs crude to fetch around $42 a barrel to break even.

On Wednesday, Brent crude was trading at $52.08 a barrel.

Coronavirus fallout

Coronavirus has rattled global markets as fears of a recession in the US and international markets mount. The spread of COVID-19, as the disease is formally known, is slowing in China where the outbreak started late last year but is gaining momentum in other parts of Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas.

Coronavirus has spread to at least 80 countries with more than 93,000 confirmed cases – the majority of which are in China. The total death toll from the outbreak is more than 3,000.

The epidemic is having major impacts on economies- shuttering factories in China, disrupting global chain supplies, cancelling major conferences, and curtailing tourism and travel.

China is the world’s biggest oil importer of crude. Its refineries have slashed their intake of crude in recent weeks as the government locked down cities and implemented quarantine measures.

The International Energy Agency in February said that global oil demand in the first quarter of 2020 is expected to fall by 435,000 bpd from a year earlier – that would mark the first in-demand drop since 2009, when the globe was in the grips of a financial crisis.

Some analysts and traders fear that oil consumption may not grow at all this year. Should that happen, it would be only the fourth time in almost 40 years.

An underwhelming response

As forecasts are ratcheted down and expectations for a quick recovery evaporate, the Saudis have reportedly sounded the alarm with fellow oil producers.

“The Saudis were looking for a cut of 300,000 barrels a day. Now, they seem to be upping that to as much as a million,” said Krane. “Since traders are predicting a drop in demand of two-to-three million barrels a day, the Saudi proposal looks about right.” 

In an unexpected move, the US Federal Reserve on Tuesday implemented its first, and biggest, surprise interest rate cut since 2008, as policymakers warned that the “coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity”.

The move came after global stock markets took a battering last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing its biggest weekly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.

OPEC can only do so much to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus…[it] will not be able to significantly offset the impact of sharp declines in Chinese growth.

Tarik Yousef, Director at Brookings Doha

While stocks and oil prices spiked on news of the rate cut, the euphoria quickly faded, injecting more volatility into an already jittery market.

“The US Federal Reserve cut interests rates to increase liquidity, and it did stabilize oil prices, but it also worried many traders because it revealed a greater concern about the impact of the virus on the overall global economy,” Tarik Yousef, director at Brookings Doha Center, told Al Jazeera.

Russia’s ‘holding position’

While many of OPEC’s 23 members struggle to balance their national budgets as oil prices slide, on Sunday President Vladimir Putin said that Russia could withstand a lower price in oil but was open to discussions with its partners.

Russia’s position is in line with its history of withholding cooperation with OPEC, only to agree to a last-minute cut.

Last week, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman expressed confidence that OPEC+ would agree to further production cuts. 

The energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia reportedly held bilaterals in Vienna on Wednesday on proposed output cuts [File: Leonhard Foeger/Reuters]

“Russian-Saudi price management has been cordial but not necessarily smooth,” Laura James, senior Middle East analyst at Oxford Analytica told Al Jazeera.

“Cooperation is likely to continue, but cautiously. Moscow and Riyadh are likely in the end to agree, and press partners to fall into line,” said James. 

On Tuesday, the vice president of Russian oil giant Lukoil, Leonid Fedun, told Reuters that the proposal to cut one million bpd would be enough to prop up the oil market, adding, “We are ready to cut as much as we are told to. Better to sell less oil but at a higher price.”

Algeria’s energy minister and OPEC President Mohamed Arkab also gave a boost of confidence, telling state news agency APS that there was already “consensus between OPEC and non-OPEC, including Russia”.

Russia’s energy minister, Alexander Novak, met with his Saudi counterpart on Wednesday for bilateral talks as ministers arrived in Vienna to kick off the conference. There is no word yet on whether they found common ground. 

But even if they do, analysts warn coronavirus could still prove a formidable challenge to oil producers.

“OPEC can only do so much to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus,” Yousef of Brookings Doha said.

“OPEC will not be able to significantly offset the impact of sharp declines in Chinese growth, the impact on Asian and US markets, which has its worst week since 2008, as well as the impact on the airline industry and global manufacturing.” 

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Business

Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

Published

 on

 

Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

Published

 on

 

CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

Published

 on

 

BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version