A new report predicts food products in Canada will have an average inflation rate increase between 2.5 and 4.5 per cent next year, down from the average five to seven per cent in 2023.
The report aims to review the year in food policy and costs and predict the rate of inflation for the next year.
One expert says 2024 will be important because it is the first full year where prices are expected to “normalize” since the COVID-19 pandemic.
“This is a good news report,” Sylvain Charlebois, one of the authors of the publication and director of Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab, told CTVNews.ca in an interview. “I think people should feel positive about 2024.”
In the latest edition of the annual report, the authors believe the overall rate of inflation will be lower in 2024, falling to somewhere between 2.5 and 4.5 per cent.
According to Charlebois, things are “much calmer now,” which could result in more deals and potentially some price wars between the big grocers.
“Margins are going to be everything,” he said. “And because consumers don’t have any money now, grocers will be fighting for our business.”
Over the next year, Charlebois believes grocery stores will be offering more incentives to consumers like loyalty programs and deals to entice people.
One of the tactics used is selling items at a loss, which brings the customer through the grocer’s doors, but then the store would increase the prices for other items, hoping the consumer will buy those as well, he explained.
“For example, I can tell you that some turkeys are sold at a loss right now, but they want you in there so you can buy the overpriced cranberries, the overpriced stuffing, the overpriced carrots and things like that,” Charlebois said.
YEAR IN REVIEW
This year was marked by soaring food inflation that burned a hole in the pockets of Canadians.
Researchers use prediction analytics models, including machine learning, to project future food prices, the report notes.
Prices for all food categories could rise by as much as 4.5 per cent in 2024, with the most significant increases of five to seven per cent in bakery products, meat and vegetables.
“Produce has always been volatile, that’s not going to change,” Charlebois said. “While we are expecting bakery to continue to rise, I’d say pork has been a good deal this year in 2023, but it’s not going to be the case in 2024.”
Dairy and fruit are expected to have rates between one and three per cent, whereas seafood and restaurant food is expected to be between three and five per cent.
The report also broke down how much this would cost for different Canadian families.
Feeding a family consisting of a man (aged 31 to 50), a woman (aged 31 to 50), a boy (aged 14 to 18) and a girl (aged nine to 13) per year is expected to cost around $16,297.20.
Cost breakdown of food to feed different families in Canada.
A family consisting of two women (31 to 50), a girl (14 to 18) and a boy (nine to 13) is estimated to spend $15,323.44 on food in 2024.
A family of six, with two parents, a grandparent and three children under the age of 13 will spend around $21,704.64, the report predicts.
FACTORS THAT INCREASE FOOD COSTS
Socio-economic, environmental and political issues all impact food costs, the researchers say.
According to the report, climate change is “very likely” to play a factor in cost increases and will have a “very significant” impact on the price of food in 2024.
It is “likely” geopolitical risks and input costs will both have “significant” impacts on some foods, the report notes.
In 2023, the war in Ukraine impacted several items like wheat, sunflower oil and fertilizers. The report notes the recent conflict in the Middle East could increase oil prices, which could result in the inflation of food prices.
Energy costs and inflation are “very likely” to continue to increase food costs as well.
By province, overall food cost increases are expected for Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Saskatchewan in 2024.
Decreases in food inflation are expected for Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island and Quebec.
British Columbia’s food inflation rate is forecast to stay relatively the same.
“In 2023, some markets were more affected than others, especially the Atlantic,” Charlebois said. “We are expecting a bit of a break for 2024 … I do believe that Ontario and Quebec are going to be battlegrounds for loyalty.”
Nova Scotia RCMP say their investigation into two suspicious deaths earlier this month has concluded that one man died by homicide and the other by suicide.
The bodies of two men, aged 40 and 73, were found in a home in Windsor, N.S., on Sept. 3.
Police say the province’s medical examiner determined the 40-year-old man was killed and the 73-year-old man killed himself.
They say the two men were members of the same family.
No arrests or charges are anticipated, and the names of the deceased will not be released.
RCMP say they will not be releasing any further details out of respect for the family.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
For the first time in their history, members of the Cree community of Nemaska received a visit from a sitting Quebec premier on Sunday and were able to share first-hand the story of how they were displaced by a hydroelectric project in the 1970s.
François Legault was greeted in Nemaska by men and women who arrived by canoe to re-enact the founding of their new village in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region, in northern Quebec, 47 years ago. The community was forced in the early 1970s to move from its original location because members were told it would be flooded as part of the Nottaway-Broadback-Rupert hydro project.
The reservoir was ultimately constructed elsewhere, but by then the members of the village had already left for other places, abandoning their homes and many of their belongings in the process.
George Wapachee, co-author of the book “Going Home,” said community members were “relocated for nothing.”
“We didn’t know what the rights were, or who to turn to,” he said in an interview. “That turned us into refugees and we were forced to abandon the life we knew.”
Nemaska’s story illustrates the challenges Legault’s government faces as it looks to build new dams to meet the province’s power needs, which are anticipated to double by 2050. Legault has promised that any new projects will be developed in partnership with Indigenous people and have “social acceptability,” but experts say that’s easier said than done.
François Bouffard, an associate professor of electrical engineering at McGill University, said the earlier era of hydro projects were developed without any consideration for the Indigenous inhabitants living nearby.
“We live in a much different world now,” he said. “Any kind of hydro development, no matter where in Quebec, will require true consent and partnership from Indigenous communities.” Those groups likely want to be treated as stakeholders, he added.
Securing wider social acceptability for projects that significantly change the landscape — as hydro dams often do — is also “a big ask,” he said. The government, Bouchard added, will likely focus on boosting capacity in its existing dams, or building installations that run off river flow and don’t require flooding large swaths of land to create reservoirs.
Louis Beaumier, executive director of the Trottier Energy Institute at Polytechnique Montreal, said Legault’s visit to Nemaska represents a desire for reconciliation with Indigenous people who were traumatized by the way earlier projects were carried about.
Any new projects will need the consent of local First Nations, Beaumier said, adding that its easier to get their blessing for wind power projects compared to dams, because they’re less destructive to the environment and easier around which to structure a partnership agreement.
Beaumier added that he believes it will be nearly impossible to get the public — Indigenous or not — to agree to “the destruction of a river” for a new dam, noting that in recent decades people have come to recognize rivers as the “unique, irreplaceable riches” that they are.
Legault’s visit to northern Quebec came on Sept. 15, when the community gathers every year to remember the founding of the “New Nemaska,” on the shores of Lake Champion in the heart of the boreal forest, some 1,500 kilometres from Montreal. Nemaska Chief Clarence Jolly said the community invited Legault to a traditional feast on Sunday, and planned to present him with Wapachee’s book and tell him their stories.
The book, published in 2022 along with Susan Marshall, is filled with stories of Nemaska community members. Leaving behind sewing machines and hunting dogs, they were initially sent to two different villages, Wapachee said.
In their new homes, several of them were forced to live in “deplorable conditions,” and some were physically and verbally abused, he said. The new village of Nemaska was only built a few years later, in 1977.
“At this time, families were losing their children to prison-schools,” he said, in reference to the residential school system. “Imagine the burden of losing your community as well.”
Thomas Jolly, a former chief, said he was 15 years old when he was forced to leave his village with all his belongings in a single bag.
Meeting Legault was important “because have to recognize what happened and we have to talk about the repercussions that the relocation had on people,” he said, adding that those effects are still felt today.
Earlier Sunday, Legault was in the Cree community of Eastmain, where he participated in the official renaming of a hydro complex in honour of former premier Bernard Landry. At the event, Legault said he would follow the example of his late predecessor, who oversaw the signing of the historic “Paix des Braves” agreement between the Quebec government and the Cree in 2002.
He said there is “significant potential” in Eeyou Istchee James Bay, both in increasing the capacity of its large dams and in developing wind power projects.
“Obviously, we will do that with the Cree,” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
NEMASKA – For the first time in their history, members of the Cree community of Nemaska received a visit from a sitting Quebec premier on Sunday and were able to share first-hand the story of how they were displaced by a hydroelectric project in the 1970s.
François Legault was greeted in Nemaska by men and women who arrived by canoe to re-enact the founding of their new village in the Eeyou Istchee James Bay region, in northern Quebec, 47 years ago. The community was forced in the early 1970s to move from their original location because they were told it would be flooded as part of the Nottaway-Broadback-Rupert hydro project.
The reservoir was ultimately constructed elsewhere, but by then the members of the village had already left for other places, abandoning their homes and many of their belongings in the process.
George Wapachee, co-author of the book “Going Home,” said community members were “relocated for nothing.”
“We didn’t know what the rights were, or who to turn to,” he said in an interview. “That turned us into refugees and we were forced to abandon the life we knew.”
The book, published in 2022 by Wapachee and Susan Marshall, is filled with stories of Cree community members. Leaving behind sewing machines and hunting dogs, they were initially sent to two different villages, 100 and 300 kilometres away, Wapachee said.
In their new homes, several of them were forced to live in “deplorable conditions,” and some were physically and verbally abused, he said. The new village of Nemaska was only built a few years later, in 1977.
“At this time, families were losing their children to prison-schools,” he said, in reference to the residential school system. “Imagine the burden of losing your community as well.”
Legault’s visit came on Sept. 15, when the community gathers every year to remember the founding of the “New Nemaska,” on the shores of Lake Champion in the heart of the boreal forest, some 1,500 kilometres from Montreal. Nemaska Chief Clarence Jolly said the community invited Legault to a traditional feast on Sunday, and planned to present him with Wapachee’s book and tell him their stories.
Thomas Jolly, a former chief, said he was 15 years old when he was forced to leave his village with all his belongings in a single bag.
Meeting Legault was important “because have to recognize what happened and we have to talk about the repercussions that the relocation had on people,” he said, adding that those effects are still felt today.
Earlier Sunday, Legault had been in the Cree community of Eastmain, where he participated in the official renaming of a hydro dam in honour of former premier Bernard Landry.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
