Will Nvidia Be Worth More Than Microsoft by 2025? - The Motley Fool | Canada News Media
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Will Nvidia Be Worth More Than Microsoft by 2025? – The Motley Fool

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Nvidia‘s (NVDA 0.35%) stock surged 16% to a new all-time high on Feb. 22 after the chipmaker’s latest earnings report crushed Wall Street’s expectations. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, which ended on Jan. 28, its revenue surged 265% year over year to $22.1 billion and surpassed analysts’ expectations by $1.6 billion. Its adjusted earnings soared 486% to $5.16 per share and cleared the consensus forecast by $0.52.

For the full year, Nvidia’s revenue jumped 126% to $60.9 billion as its adjusted EPS climbed 288%. That represented a stunning acceleration from its flat revenue growth and 25% decline in adjusted earnings in fiscal 2023.

Image source: Getty Images.

Nvidia’s 280% rally over the past 12 months has propelled its market cap to $1.96 trillion, making it the world’s third-most-valuable company after Microsoft (MSFT -0.32%), which is worth $3.06 trillion, and Apple, which is worth $2.85 trillion. So does Nvidia have a realistic shot at surpassing Apple and stealing the crown from Microsoft by 2025?

Why is Nvidia growing like a weed?

Nvidia’s recent growth spurt was entirely driven by the explosive growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) market. Nvidia’s top-tier data center GPUs are used to process complex AI tasks more efficiently than stand-alone CPUs, and companies scrambled to purchase those chips to keep pace with the growth of generative AI platforms like OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

All of the world’s leading AI-oriented companies — including OpenAI, its top backer Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet‘s Google, and Meta Platforms — use Nvidia’s GPUs. Its GPU sales to China were throttled by export curbs over the past year, but the market’s demand is still outstripping its supply by a significant margin.

Nvidia generated 78% of its revenue from its data center chips in fiscal 2024, compared to just 56% of its revenue in fiscal 2023. That rapid expansion curbed its dependence on gaming GPUs, which previously generated most of its revenue but were highly exposed to the PC market’s post-pandemic slowdown and the volatile crypto mining market.

How much could Nvidia be worth in 2025?

The bulls believe Nvidia will continue to dominate the AI market, even as its rival AMD enters the ring with its cheaper data center GPUs, and cloud giants like Meta and Google start developing their own first-party AI GPUs. Based on those rosy expectations, analysts expect Nvidia’s revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% from fiscal 2024 to fiscal 2027 as its EPS rises at a CAGR of 37%.

Nvidia’s stock isn’t cheap at 35 times forward earnings and 18 times this year’s sales, but it seems reasonably valued relative to its growth rates. If it maintains those valuations, meets analysts’ expectations, and still trades at 35 times forward earnings by the beginning of fiscal 2027 (which starts in Jan. 2026), its stock might be worth $1,085 per share with a market cap of about $2.7 trillion by late 2025. That would represent a near-40% gain from its current levels.

But will it be more valuable than Microsoft?

We should take those hazy long-term estimates with a grain of salt, since Nvidia repeatedly beat analysts’ expectations over the past year, but they imply the chipmaker probably won’t be more valuable than Microsoft by 2025.

Microsoft has also tapped into the AI market’s explosive growth via its big investment in OpenAI and the integration of its generative AI tools into its own cloud-based services. Analysts expect its revenue and earnings to rise at a CAGR of 15% and 17%, respectively, from fiscal 2023 (which ended last June) to fiscal 2026.

Like Nvidia, Microsoft also trades at 35 times forward earnings. If it maintains that premium multiple and matches Wall Street’s expectations, it could trade at about $550 with a market cap of $4.1 trillion by early 2026.

Look beyond Nvidia’s market cap

Simply put, Nvidia won’t catch up to Microsoft unless the bulls abruptly bid its valuations to unsustainable levels or Microsoft drops the ball and gets revalued as a slower-growth company.

Instead of wondering if either of those scenarios will happen, investors should focus on Nvidia’s growth potential instead of its market capitalization. It’s still selling picks and shovels for the AI gold rush, and it could still have plenty of room to run before longer-term headwinds like AMD’s GPUs or first-party chips meaningfully affect its growth.

Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Leo Sun has positions in Amazon, Apple, and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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