With a shortage of new listings and only a trickle of new home construction reaching the market, a report by the Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors released Monday is forecasting a competitive housing market this fall with prices expected to rise more quickly in the first part of 2024.
The local real estate market is now on par in terms of average sales price ($554,277 in July) and slightly ahead in the number of sales (438) compared to 2022.
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“We believe the last four months of the year are going to be really solid,” said Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors president Mark Lalovich. “We hit a soft spot in the summer, which is a seasonal thing.
“I think there’s a lot of interest out there and we’re going to be getting new traffic with the battery plant and the supplier plants.”
Lalovich said the biggest challenge in the market right now is demand is outstripping supply. Listings are still over 20 per cent below the number of homes on the market last summer.
There were 1,049 new homes listed in July, just under 300 fewer than a year ago.
New home construction has also slowed significantly with rising interest rates. In June, there were only eight homes completed in Windsor, well short of the province’s target number for 108 homes.
“I think we’ll starting to see the impact of all these investments in the fall, not just on the housing side, but on the rental side as well,” Lalovich said. “The rental market has been a bit soft as well, but those are starting to fill up.
“We will really start to see the impact gearing up next spring. The market is going to get increasingly competitive as we move into next year.”
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The Windsor census metropolitan area, which also includes Lakeshore, Tecumseh, LaSalle and Amherstburg, is already seeing accelerated population growth.
Statistics Canada’s July Labour Force Survey reported 1,000 people more people moved to the area last month. That brings the population growth in the Windsor CMA to 5,200 in the first seven months of 2023, with 4,100 people coming in just the last five months.
With the newly built home market not expected to provide much new inventory until at least next year, Lalovich said the resale market will have to be the source of increasing supply in the short term.
“The reason for fewer houses being on the market is the Boomers are not moving,” Lalovich said. “They were supposed to be downsizing, but that’s not happening.”
Lalovich said some people are waiting to see if the market recovers further closer to the peak levels of 2022. Others can’t find an affordable place to downsize to and some are put off by higher interest rates on mortgages.
Some still need the space as their children remain at home longer.
“If we can’t get new builds back on track turning out product next year, we could be facing a big surge of demand in the resale market again,” Lalovich said. “It could go back to the levels of the epidemic.
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“An economist in Ottawa warned us in the spring, if we didn’t get more listings in the Windsor area by fall, we faced a spike in prices this fall.”
However, Lalovich is optimistic listings will increase if the Bank of Canada doesn’t raise interest rates at its next meeting on Sept. 6.
“I think sellers are sitting in the weeds seeing what the Bank of Canada is going to do with interest rates,” Lalovich said.
“People want to see that the Bank of Canada is not becoming radical and pushing interest rates higher. I don’t think they have a lot of leverage on the market unless they’re willing to create problems.
“They have inflation more under control, so I don’t think they’ll want to do that.”
Dwaddell@postmedia.com
Twitter.com/winstarwaddell
TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.
The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.
“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.
“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”
The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.
New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.
In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.
The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.
“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.
“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”
He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.
“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.
“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”
All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.
Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.
“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.
“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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