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With COVID-19 on the rise in Alberta, what constitutes a fourth wave in a nation filled with vaccines? – CTV News

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TORONTO —
The R-value has climbed to peak COVID-19 levels in Alberta, even as daily case numbers remain fairly low, prompting the question: What constitutes a fourth wave of the pandemic in a country that has enough vaccines to inoculate everyone?

The R-value of COVID-19, or the “effective reproduction number,” is a way of measuring an infectious disease’s capacity to spread. It represents the number of people who will become infected by one infected person.

Alberta’s value was logged around 1.48 over the weekend according to provincial data, whereas at the peak of the third wave of the pandemic in the province when daily cases were around 1,500, the R-value fluctuated around 1.15.

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“If your ‘R’ is greater than one, you’re obviously growing. If the ‘R’ is less than one, you have a shrinking epidemic,” explained infectious disease expert Dr. Isaac Bogoch in a telephone interview with CTVNews.ca Wednesday. “A growing epidemic’s values are greater than one – a shrinking epidemic’s value are less than one.”

Alberta Health reported 194 new COVID-19 cases Wednesday, making the active case count stand at 1,334, the highest it has been in weeks. Eighty-four people are getting treated for COVID-19 in the hospital including 18 that were admitted to the ICU.

On Wednesday, in her first COVID-19 update in nearly a month, chief medical officer of health for Alberta Dr. Deena Hinshaw said “cases have risen recently, almost entirely in those who have not been fully vaccinated, as we expected would likely happen, as people come in close contact with each other again… I am pleased that overall hospitalizations continue to decline. And we will keep watching these closely.”

Hinshaw also reported that since July 1, people who were not fully immunized made up 95 per cent of all cases of COVID-19 in the province, 94 per cent of all those who have needed hospital care for COVID-19, and 95 per cent of all COVID-19 deaths.

Adjunct professor at the School of Public Health at the University of Alberta and former chief medical officer of health for the province Dr. James Talbot says the numbers are cause for concern.

“The numbers are going in the wrong direction,” Talbot said in an interview with CTV National News. “We were down to 30 to 50 cases a day…[it’s] a significant increase, and as predicted the Delta variant is now dominant.”

Talbot said the highly transmissible variant is “causing 90 per cent of the cases” and could cause an “exponential growth” of daily cases especially amongst those who are unvaccinated.

“It’s bad news for the province,” he said, adding that in light of Alberta lifting most public health restrictions on July 1, “the absence of any kind of control measures in place except immunisation, what you’re left with is 25 per cent of people over the age of 12 who can serve as fuel for this fire – and then you have all the kids under 12 who, of course, haven’t been immunised, who will also be transmitting the virus.”

In an emailed statement on Wednesday, the Alberta provincial government stated that “nearly 75.6 per cent of eligible Albertans have now received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, and 64.3 per cent are fully immunized.”

“Vaccines dramatically reduce the risk of severe outcomes and the risk of infection. While COVID-19 cases may rise in the coming months, a surge of hospitalizations and other severe outcomes is much less likely thanks to vaccines,” the statement continues.

Canada now has enough COVID-19 vaccines to fully inoculate every eligible person over the age of 12, with more than 66 million doses received as of Tuesday, but despite the glut of vaccines and Alberta’s vaccination rate, Talbot said the province’s vaccine number announcement leave out a crucial piece of context.

“The key thing here is that 25 per cent are unimmunised; they have no protection,” he said, adding that that number has not budged in six weeks. “In the past, they were protected by the fact that there were people who were wearing masks, social distancing, et cetera, that they have no protection now.”

Alberta has the second-lowest vaccination rate in the country after Saskatchewan.

Talbot said with the Delta variant, unvaccinated Albertans and a rising R-value, the exponential growth of cases or “doubling time” could conservatively be between “a week to two weeks.”

“Take 10 days. So if we’re at 100 [cases]… 10 days from now, 200, 10 days after that, 400, 10 days after that… by the end of the month, 800 cases per day,” he said.

“I mean, we were hoping to really get back to normal for schools and workplaces in September, and this is potentially going to put that in jeopardy,” Talbot said.

A FOURTH WAVE OR ‘AN EXPECTED RISE IN CASES’?

But where Talbot sees a potential fourth wave, Bogoch said it’s important to “change the narrative.”

“You know, I know everyone’s trying to focus on Alberta, but I think the important point here is that it’s not just Alberta, it’s Canada,” he said. “As you open up, which everybody is doing, to some extent, you’re going to see a rise in cases — we know that’s going to happen.”

Bogoch said “it should come as no surprise” that if you give a virus like COVID-19 an “opportunity to be transmitted, it will be transmitted.”

B.C., which reported 185 new cases of COVID-19 Wednesday, has made masks mandatory again in indoor public places as parts of the interior see a spike in cases.

Ontario reported 158 new COVID-19 cases, as the seven-day rolling average of daily COVID-19 cases stands around at 160, up from 155 the previous week.

“It’s not just Alberta,” Bogoch said. “It’s actually a bigger issue. And the question is to what extent will we be able to mitigate that rise in cases? To what extent will we be able to keep the pressure off of our health care system amongst amidst an expected rise in cases?”

“Cases are going to go up. We know that’s going to happen. Alberta is just the first,” he said.

Bogoch also pointed out after well over a year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the country knows “how to keep this under control.”

“We can vaccinate, we can create safer indoor spaces like schools, places of work, restaurants, et cetera, so it’s not like we don’t know how,” he said, adding that “now, a lot of the decisions are really political decisions, not just medical and scientific and public health.”

Alberta announced Wednesday it will lift much of its remaining COVID-19 restrictions in the coming days, despite the rise in cases – for example, on Aug. 16, people who test positive for COVID-19 will not be mandated to quarantine anymore, but the province will recommend it.

“You know, the pandemic isn’t over, we’re doing really well and this is a great opportunity to strike while the iron is hot,” Bogoch said. “We’ve got enough vaccines to vaccinate every eligible Canadian, we’ve got health-care systems that are not overwhelmed at the moment, we’ve got a population that’s quite willing to be vaccinated, and we’ve got very low rates of community transmission at the moment. So this is this is an opportune time to really get everything in order to prepare for an expected rise in cases that we’re going to see later in the summer, probably in the fall.

“We can’t ignore that we’re way better off now than we were weeks and weeks and months ago.”

—–

With files from CTV National News’ Heather Butts

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New technology to advance women’s cancer care at Southlake

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NEWS RELEASE
SOUTHLAKE REGIONAL HEALTH CENTRE
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This Cancer Awareness Month, Southlake is adding advanced technologies to detect and treat breast cancer and other women’s cancers thanks to generous community donor support, most recently through the HERE is Where Cancer Meets its Match campaign. New cancer care technology, including new mammography machines, the MyoSure System and the MOLLI 2® System will make a measurable impact in diagnosing and treating women’s cancers in the communities Southlake serves.

Southlake is installing three new mammography machines to expand its breast cancer screening program to 1,500 more women each year. Two of these machines have new biopsy capabilities that will reduce the number of cancelled exams due to equipment failure, ensuring timely care for women. Women ages 40 to 49 years old will be able to self-refer for publicly funded mammograms through the Ontario Breast Screening Program starting this fall.

“Early detection is critical when treating breast cancer and other women’s cancers,” said Lorrie Reynolds, Director, Regional Cancer Program at Southlake. “We treat more than 1,700 breast cancer patients at Southlake every year. By adding advanced technology, like the new mammography machines, we’re ensuring women have the best experience at Southlake.”

Southlake is also introducing the MyoSure System, an innovative technology that can help detect female reproductive cancers. Damaged tissue in a woman’s uterus such as fibroids and polyps can now be removed in a precise, minimally invasive procedure that leaves the rest of the uterus intact. This will improve the overall patient experience by supporting faster recovery, reducing the risk of infection and giving more women the option to have children. An estimated 200 women per year will benefit from the MyoSure System.

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The new mammography machines and the MyoSure System build on Southlake’s recent investment in the MOLLI 2® System, a made-in-Canada wire-free breast localization technology.  This technology is considerably less invasive and more accurate when compared to wire-guided localization, resulting in a better patient experience and improved cosmetic outcomes.  More than 200 women each year will benefit from this innovative medical device as they are treated for breast cancer at Southlake.

“As a clinician caring for women with cancer in our community, I’m incredibly proud of the work Southlake is doing to advance women’s health and improve patient experiences,” said Sara Temple, MD, Surgical Oncologist and Chief of Surgery at Southlake. “Women who visit Southlake can be confident that they are receiving leading edge care, close to home when they need it most.”

The World Health Organization anticipates a 77 per cent increase in cancer diagnoses by 2050.  Southlake serves some of the fastest growing communities in Canada and anticipates that the number of patients requiring cancer care will grow. By investing in new technology, Southlake is ensuring that women in the communities it serves have access to leading edge cancer care. All of these investments were funded with support from community donors who generously gave to Southlake to support investments into women’s health at the hospital.

“The generosity of our donor community and the impact they have made for women receiving cancer diagnosis and treatment at Southlake is something we can all take great pride in,” said Jennifer Ritter, President and CEO of Southlake Foundation. “From our Women’s Health Initiative donors supporting new mammography machines, to the Ladies in Philanthropy for Southlake funding the MOLLI 2 System, to our long-standing partners The Edge Benefits and Pheasant Run Golf Club enabling the introduction of MyoSure System through their joint annual charity golf tournament, we are incredibly lucky to share a vision of access to exceptional care for everyone who depends on Southlake when they need us most. Thank you, to every donor who contributed to these important upgrades to care for women.”

Southlake Foundation’s HERE is Where Cancer Meets its Match campaign supports the Stronach Regional Cancer Centre at Southlake. For more information or to make a donation, visit: southlake.ca/HERE.

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Pasteurized milk includes remnants of H5N1 bird flu, U.S. officials say

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The U.S. Food and Drug Administration says that samples of pasteurized milk have tested positive for remnants of the bird flu virus that has infected dairy cows.

The agency stressed that the material is inactivated and that the findings “do not represent actual virus that may be a risk to consumers.” Officials added that they’re continuing to study the issue.

“To date, we have seen nothing that would change our assessment that the commercial milk supply is safe,” the FDA said in a statement on Tuesday.

The announcement comes nearly a month after an avian influenza virus that has sickened millions of wild and commercial birds in recent years was detected in dairy cows in at least eight states. The Agriculture Department (USDA) says 33 herds have been affected to date.

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FDA officials didn’t indicate how many samples they tested or where they were obtained. The agency has been evaluating milk during processing and from grocery stores, officials said. Results of additional tests are expected in “the next few days to weeks.”

WATCH | Bird flu spread in U.S. cows:

 

Bird flu is spreading in cows. Are humans at risk? | About That

15 days ago

Duration 8:54

For the first time ever, avian influenza, or H5N1 bird flu, was detected in roughly a dozen dairy cow herds across the U.S. About That producer Lauren Bird explores why scientists and public health officials are concerned about the cross-species transmission and whether humans are now at higher risk.

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) lab test the FDA used would have detected viral genetic material even after live virus was killed by pasteurization, or heat treatment, said Lee-Ann Jaykus, an emeritus food microbiologist and virologist at North Carolina State University

“There is no evidence to date that this is infectious virus, and the FDA is following up on that,” Jaykus said.

Officials with the FDA and the USDA had previously said milk from affected cattle did not enter the commercial supply. Milk from sick animals is supposed to be diverted and destroyed. Federal regulations require milk that enters interstate commerce to be pasteurized.

Tests for viable virus underway, agency says

Because the detection of the bird flu virus known as Type A H5N1 in dairy cattle is new and the situation is evolving, no studies on the effects of pasteurization on the virus have been completed, FDA officials said. But past research shows that pasteurization is “very likely” to inactivate heat-sensitive viruses like H5N1, the agency added.

The agency said it has been evaluating milk from affected animals, in the processing system and on the shelves. It said it is completing a large, representative national sample to understand the extent of the findings.

The FDA said it is further assessing any positive findings through egg inoculation tests, which it described as a gold standard for determining viable virus.

Matt Herrick, a spokesperson for the International Dairy Foods Association, said that time and temperature regulations for pasteurization ensure that the commercial U.S. milk supply is safe. Remnants of the virus “have zero impact on human health,” he wrote in an email.

Scientists confirmed the H5N1 virus in dairy cows in March after weeks of reports that cows in Texas were suffering from a mysterious malady. The cows were lethargic and saw a dramatic reduction in milk production. Although the H5N1 virus is lethal to commercial poultry, most infected cattle seem to recover within two weeks, experts said.

To date, two people in the U.S. have been infected with bird flu. A Texas dairy worker who was in close contact with an infected cow recently developed a mild eye infection and has recovered. In 2022, a prison inmate in a work program caught it while killing infected birds at a Colorado poultry farm. His only symptom was fatigue, and he recovered.


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Remnants of bird flu virus found in pasteurized milk, FDA says – Hamilton Spectator

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The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said Tuesday that samples of pasteurized milk had tested positive for remnants of the bird flu virus that has infected dairy cows.

The agency stressed that the material is inactivated and that the findings “do not represent actual virus that may be a risk to consumers.” Officials added that they’re continuing to study the issue.

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