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Working from home could wipe $800 billion from office values globally

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Remote work risks wiping $800 billion from the value of office buildings in major cities worldwide by 2030 as the post-pandemic trend pushes up office vacancy rates and drives down rents, according to a new report.

Office attendance has stabilized at 30% below pre-Covid norms and only 37% of workers are going into the office every day, McKinsey Global Institute said in a report Thursday.

The research adds to a string of recent signs that lasting changes to working habits because of the pandemic are hurting the value of commercial real estate — a market also under strain from rising interest rates. Last month, HSBC

(HBCYF)
announced plans to halve the size of its global headquarters, giving up its imposing tower in London’s Canary Wharf business district for a much smaller building close to the city center.

HSBC is downsizing its headquarters and leaving London’s Canary Wharf

 

“Hybrid work is here to stay,” McKinsey said. “Urban real estate in superstar cities around the world faces substantial challenges. And those challenges could imperil the fiscal health of cities, many of which are already straining to address homelessness, transit needs, and other pressing issues.”

McKinsey looked most closely at nine “superstar” cities with a disproportionate share of the world’s urban gross domestic product, namely Beijing, Houston, London, New York, Paris, Munich, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

The estimated $800 billion in valuation losses in those cities represents a 26% decline from 2019 levels. In a more severe scenario, the value of office space could fall by as much as 42%, the consultancy said.

“The impact on value could be even stronger if rising interest rates compound it,” McKinsey added. “Similarly, the impact could be stronger if troubled financial institutions decide to more quickly reduce the price of property they finance or own.”

There are fears that a downturn in commercial real estate could cause losses at banks, which finance many of the industry’s deals. In the United States, where lending comes mostly from small and mid-sized banks, credit conditions have already tightened.

San Francisco mayor proposes tearing down Westfield Mall and other shuttered downtown retailers

 

Waning demand for office space has driven down landlords’ asking rents, with US cities suffering the sharpest falls, McKinsey found. In San Francisco and New York last year, asking rents fell 28% and 22% respectively, compared with 2019, once inflation is taken into account.

In a moderate scenario, demand for office space could be 13% lower by the end of the decade than it was in 2019.

While the rate at which people are moving out of cities has returned to its lower pre-pandemic trend, “few of the people who left will return” and “urban shopping will not fully recover,” the consultancy said.

Foot traffic near stores in urban areas remains 10-20% lower than it was before the pandemic, partly driven by growth in online shopping.

McKinsey said cities could adapt to the declining demand for office space by “taking a hybrid approach themselves,” developing multi-use office and retail space and constructing buildings that can be easily adapted to serve different purposes.

In an interview at Bloomberg’s Technology Summit last month, San Francisco Mayor London Breed proposed remaking the struggling city’s downtown by tearing down abandoned retail space, including Westfield mall. She suggested a laboratory or soccer stadium could be built in its place.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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