Economy
World economy at critical juncture in inflation fight, central-bank body warns
LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) – The world’s central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called on Sunday for more interest rate hikes, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation.
Despite the relentless rise in rates over the last 18 months, inflation in many top economies remains stubbornly high, while the jump in borrowing costs triggered the most serious banking collapses since the financial crisis 15 years ago.
“The global economy is at a critical juncture. Stern challenges must be addressed,” Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation’s annual report published on Sunday.
“The time to obsessively pursue short term growth is past. Monetary policy must now restore price stability. Fiscal policy must consolidate.”
Claudio Borio, the head of BIS’s monetary and economics unit, added there was a risk an “inflationary psychology” was now setting in, although the bigger-than-expected rate hikes in Britain and Norway last week showed central banks were pushing “to get the job done” in terms of tackling the problem.
Their challenges are unique by post-World War Two standards though. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities.
The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now “material”.
If interest rates get to mid-1990s levels the overall debt service burden for top economies would, all else being equal, be the highest in history, Borio said.
“I think central banks will get inflation under control. That is their job – to restore price stability,” he told Reuters. “The question is what will the cost be.”
BANKING CRISES
The Swiss-based BIS held its annual meeting in recent days, where top central bankers discussed the turbulent last few months.
March and April saw a failure of a number of U.S. regional banks including Silicon Valley Bank and then the emergency rescue of Credit Suisse in the BIS’s own backyard.
Historically, about 15% of rate hike cycles trigger severe stress in the banking system, the BIS report showed, although the frequency rises considerably if interest rates are going up, inflation is surging or house prices have been rising sharply.
It can even be as high as 40% if the private debt-to-GDP ratio is in the top quartile of the historical distribution at the time of the first rate hike.
“Very high debt levels, a remarkable global inflation surge, and the strong pandemic-era increase in house prices check all these boxes,” the BIS said.
It estimated too that the cost of supporting aging populations will grow by approximately 4% and 5% of GDP in advanced (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs) respectively over the next 20 years.
Absent belt-tightening by governments, that would push debt above 200% and 150% of GDP by 2050 in AEs and EMEs and could be even higher if economic growth rates wane.
Part of the report published already last week also laid out a “game changing” blueprint for an evolved financial system where central bank digital currencies and tokenised banking assets speed up and smarten up transactions and global trade.
Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico’s central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.
“Unrealistic expectations that have emerged since the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic about the degree and persistence of monetary and fiscal support need to be corrected,” he said.
The BIS thinks an economic “soft, or soft-ish” landing – where rates rise without triggering recessions or major banking crashes – is still possible, but accepts it is a difficult situation.
Analysts at Bank of America have calculated there have been a whopping 470 interest rate rises globally over the past 2 years compared with 1,202 cuts since the financial crash.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has lifted its rates 500 basis points from near zero, the European Central Bank has hiked the euro zone’s by 400 bps and many developing world economies have done far more.
The question remains what more will be needed, especially with signs that companies are taking the opportunity to boost profits and workers are now demanding higher wages to prevent a further erosion of their living standards.
“The easy gains have now been reaped and the last mile is going to be more difficult,” Borio said, referring to challenges central bankers now face reeling inflation back to safe levels. “I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more surprises”.
(This story has been corrected to change the combined rise ECB rate hikes to 400 basis points from 375 basis points in paragraph 22)
Economy
Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase
OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.
Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.
The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.
As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.
The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.
A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.
In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.
The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.
According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.
The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.
Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Economy
PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
Economy
Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.
In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.
The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.
Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.
In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.
It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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