A woman wears a mask at a subway station in Shanghai. Photo: Reuters
The coronavirus that emerged late last year in central China has taken a terrible toll of human lives, but as efforts to contain it gather momentum, attention is turning to the health of the Chinese, Asian and global economies. How sick are they and how long might a full recovery take?
As of last Friday there were nearly 65,000 confirmed cases of illness from the virus, now officially known as Covid-19, in China and 27 other countries including Thailand. It is not yet clear whether the infection rate is slowing down, as China just last week changed its reporting criteria, resulting in a spike in the numbers.
News of viral infections and deaths has been spreading since mid-January, sowing panic across the globe and leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare a global health emergency. Nervous consumers are queuing to buy face masks and hand sanitiser, and thinking twice whenever they go out in public.
Concern about the spread of the virus has led to massive cuts in air travel, especially to and from China, and cancellations of major public events. Among the highest-profile casualties last week was the Mobile World Congress, which normally attracts 100,000 people to Barcelona for one of the tech world’s grandest gatherings.
Reports of quarantined cruise ships — including one that spent days cruising aimlessly around the Gulf of Thailand before being allowed into Cambodia — further illustrate the high degree of anxiety.
Against this backdrop, economists are trying to gauge the impact the sharp contraction in activity in China will ultimately have. The Chinese economy, which grew by a disappointing 6.1% last year, could slow to 4.5% growth in the first quarter, according to a Reuters poll, and 5% for the full year.
The concern is acute in Southeast Asia, where many economies are heavily interconnected with the world’s second largest economy. Export and import activity and tourism are the areas being hit the hardest.
Piti Srisangnam, an economics professor at Chulalongkorn University, said the ripple effects are being felt throughout global supply chains.
For example, Hyundai had to suspend production for several days this month at its Ulsan complex in South Korea, which has an annual capacity of 1.4 million vehicles, because it had run out of parts made by suppliers in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. Nissan had to close a plant in Japan for two days for the same reason.
Some factories in China that normally would have reopened on Feb 3 after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday remained closed to ensure the safety of workers, and are only expected to resume production this week.
“The global economy will experience shrinkage in the wake of the outbreak because the slowdown will occur worldwide,” said Mr Piti. “Also, China has many megaprojects that contribute to the world economy. Now, due to the virus, the momentum will slow down.
“Factory closures in China will disrupt supply chains that are dependent on orders from those factories. Whoever depends on China, they will experience a shortage of supply.”
TRAVEL TUMBLES
The prospects for the global travel industry, he noted, were already dim prior to the outbreak as economic conditions overall were weak. That was partly the legacy of the trade war between the United States and China, who have now reached a truce of sorts.
Mr Piti said the fallout from Covid-19 would be profound in the travel and tourism industry and on private consumption in Asia and around the world.
The airline industry is already bracing for loses of up to US$5 billion this year, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) said last week. It said 70 airlines had cancelled all international flights in and out of China and 50 others had reduced operations since the virus first emerged.
Moody’s Investors Service notes that the outbreak occurred at a time when passenger growth was already slowing in Asia Pacific, excluding Malaysia, as a result of softening economic conditions. A greater concentration of Chinese travellers in Asia Pacific has rendered airports in the region, and the companies that operate them such as the highly profitable Airports of Thailand Plc, more vulnerable.
In Southeast Asia, the number of travellers from China and other regional countries, the main drivers of the tourism industry, has been dwindling fast.
“The virus impacts the tourism sector immensely, especially in Thailand where half a million Chinese tourists visit monthly. This month and next month that number will dwindle profoundly, maybe down to zero,” the professor said, noting that everyone will take a hit, from airlines and hotel chains to restaurants, ground transport services, retailers, guides and souvenir shops.
Nearly 11 million Chinese holidaymakers — about 40% of them on group tours, which China banned on Jan 27 — spent some 570 billion baht in Thailand last year, more than a quarter of all foreign tourism receipts. The tourism industry as a whole contributes 21% directly and indirectly to the country’s gross domestic product, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand is now resigned to a drop of at least 2 million Chinese arrivals this year, while overall arrivals could fall by 5 million from 39.8 million in 2019.
The Tourism and Sports Ministry has estimated that reduced travel from China alone could result in 50 billion baht in lost tourism revenue.
Not only does fear of getting sick deter international travellers, local people are also avoiding going out to public places, which will hurt the economy further.
Mr Piti recommends that governments in affected countries adopt stimulus measures to cope with the situation, such as incentives that encourage businesses to offer discounts and promotions to win visitors back.
Agriculture is another sector facing trouble, as if reduced harvests of key commodities because of drought conditions was not bad enough. In the short term, though, there could be an oversupply of products that normally would be shipped from Thailand to China, and ways need to be found to cope with this reality, he said.
To help alleviate the impact, Mr Piti said he would like to see broader-based stimulus policies that could generate shared benefits for the world economy. This is no time for trade protectionism, he added.
In any case, he predicts that the situation will be improve in the coming months. And while it is hard to give a timeline, the world economy will likely take a severe blow in the first quarter while a recovery will start to occur in the third.
During the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) outbreak in 2002-03, the Chinese economy slowed sharply in the first quarter of 2003 but growth returned to normal by the third quarter. Commentators note, however, that China’s economy today is much larger and more closely interlinked with the economies of countries all over the world. As well, the scale of the Covid-19 outbreak has grown beyond that of Sars, although the response of Chinese and global health authorities has been much better.
SHORT-TERM PAIN
While policymakers and planners worry about the macroeconomic impact of the virus, the outlook on the ground is grim, especially in Thai destinations such as Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Phuket, which normally are thronged with Chinese visitors at this time of year.
“From my estimation based on revenue, the number of tourists, not just Chinese, has dropped by 30-40%,” said Namfon Nooplod, a 29-year-old restaurant owner in Phuket. Thankfully, she said, there are still some tourists from other countries.
Ms Namfon’s seafood restaurant is one of the most popular spots on Karon Beach, where travellers usually stroll on the long Beachwalk filled with dining, shopping and nightlife spots.
“My restaurant is located on the main street; it usually has more tourists,” she said last week. “We are open from 10 am to 1 am and it is usually crowded all day long.”
Even though tourists are still frequenting her restaurant, none spend like the Chinese, she said.
“Chinese tourists usually come in groups, and when it comes to food, they have no limit — a group of Chinese tourists would order eight thousand to twenty thousand baht worth of food and drinks per table.”
Meanwhile, bookings in restaurants and hotels are being cancelled and people are scared to go out, Ms Namfon observed. Even though businesses located on main streets are able to carry on, in other streets, shops and restaurants do not fare well due to the lack of pedestrians.
“I want to encourage people to travel,” she said. “The virus is not worrisome”.
PREVENTIVE MEASURES
Meanwhile, health professionals from around the world are continuing their efforts to slow the spread of Covid-19, while researchers try to come up with treatments that could still be months away.
Dr Daniel Kertesz, the WHO representative in Thailand, told a recent conference that the priority for member states right now is “limiting human-to-human transmission”.
The work includes identifying cases, isolating them so that they will not infect others, and tracing their contacts. “The second thing is really about addressing the crucial unknowns,” he added.
Dr Kertesz emphasised the importance of global sharing of information and data that allows the international community to get a better sense of questions that haven’t yet been answered.
Discussing whether it is necessary for countries to impose travel bans on Chinese visitors, Dr Kertesz said the WHO understands that different countries’ decisions were made based on their national considerations, but the organisation does not suggest the international community employ such an approach.
“Our experience is that they (travel bans) are not particularly effective,” he said.
He explained that a travel ban merely contributes to deferring the expansion of the infection, and it also creates difficulties for the international community to provide technical support to infected areas.
In Thailand, where 33 cases have been reported to date, the government and public health professionals are confident they can deal with whatever arises. That helps to explain why the country has not imposed a ban on Chinese visitors.
The Global Health Security Index (GHS Index), created by Johns Hopkins University, ranks Thailand sixth in the world, notes Dr Thanarak Plipat, deputy director of the Bureau of Epidemiology in the Department of Disease Control at the Ministry of Public Health.
The survey of 195 countries examines their capabilities of handling infectious disease in areas ranging from prevention, detection, reporting and rapid response to the health system, compliance with international norms and the risk environment.
Thailand was ranked sixth overall, the best in Asean, where Malaysia was ranked 18th and Singapore 24th. Far behind were Vietnam (50th), Myanmar (72nd), Laos (73rd), and Cambodia (146th).
Dr Thanarak believes that with cooperation between the public and private sectors, the capacity of the healthcare system in Thailand can be greatly improved, increasing the chances of the situation being contained.
Dealing with the prospect of an epidemic, he explained, is divided into four phases. In phase one, the focus is on early detection of cases in travellers.
“The measures taken include setting up entry screening at airports and establishing surveillance in the health sector as well as the public.”
Phase two begins when local transmission starts to materialise, possibly from the travellers to local residents. This began after the first case of local transmission was reported in a Thai taxi driver who had never travelled to China but possibly contracted the virus from a Chinese passenger.
Phase three is the phase of acceleration if infections spread throughout the country. The focus would be on slowing the spread of the virus and elevating the capacity of the domestic healthcare system.
“It may not happen at all. But if it happens, we know what our government needs to prepare for,” said Dr Thanarak. “Of course, we prepare for the worst and work to be the best so that it won’t happen.
“If the worst case happens, I think we might suffer a little bit, but I think we can handle it.”
Skinstitut Holiday Gift Kits take the stress out of gifting
Toronto, October 31, 2024 – Beauty gifts are at the top of holiday wish lists this year, and Laser Clinics Canada, a leader in advanced beauty treatments and skincare, is taking the pressure out of seasonal shopping. Today, Laser Clincs Canada announces the arrival of its 2024 Holiday Gift Kits, courtesy of Skinstitut, the exclusive skincare line of Laser Clinics Group.
In time for the busy shopping season, the limited-edition Holiday Gifts Kits are available in Laser Clinics locations in the GTA and Ottawa. Clinics are conveniently located in popular shopping centers, including Hillcrest Mall, Square One, CF Sherway Gardens, Scarborough Town Centre, Rideau Centre, Union Station and CF Markville. These limited-edition Kits are available on a first come, first served basis.
“These kits combine our best-selling products, bundled to address the most relevant skin concerns we’re seeing among our clients,” says Christina Ho, Senior Brand & LAM Manager at Laser Clinics Canada. “With several price points available, the kits offer excellent value and suit a variety of gift-giving needs, from those new to cosmeceuticals to those looking to level up their skincare routine. What’s more, these kits are priced with a savings of up to 33 per cent so gift givers can save during the holiday season.
There are two kits to select from, each designed to address key skin concerns and each with a unique theme — Brightening Basics and Hydration Heroes.
Brightening Basics is a mix of everyday essentials for glowing skin for all skin types. The bundle comes in a sleek pink, reusable case and includes three full-sized products: 200ml gentle cleanser, 50ml Moisture Defence (normal skin) and 30ml1% Hyaluronic Complex Serum. The Brightening Basics kit is available at $129, a saving of 33 per cent.
Hydration Heroes is a mix of hydration essentials and active heroes that cater to a wide variety of clients. A perfect stocking stuffer, this bundle includes four deluxe products: Moisture 15 15 ml Defence for normal skin, 10 ml 1% Hyaluronic Complex Serum, 10 ml Retinol Serum and 50 ml Expert Squalane Cleansing Oil. The kit retails at $59.
In addition to the 2024 Holiday Gifts Kits, gift givers can easily add a Laser Clinic Canada gift card to the mix. Offering flexibility, recipients can choose from a wide range of treatments offered by Laser Clinics Canada, or they can expand their collection of exclusive Skinstitut products.
Brightening Basics 2024 Holiday Gift Kit by Skinstitut, available exclusively at Laser Clincs Canada clinics and online at skinstitut.ca.
Hydration Heroes 2024 Holiday Gift Kit by Skinstitut – available exclusively at Laser Clincs Canada clinics and online at skinstitut.ca.
LONDON (AP) — Most people have accumulated a pile of data — selfies, emails, videos and more — on their social media and digital accounts over their lifetimes. What happens to it when we die?
It’s wise to draft a will spelling out who inherits your physical assets after you’re gone, but don’t forget to take care of your digital estate too. Friends and family might treasure files and posts you’ve left behind, but they could get lost in digital purgatory after you pass away unless you take some simple steps.
Here’s how you can prepare your digital life for your survivors:
Apple
The iPhone maker lets you nominate a “ legacy contact ” who can access your Apple account’s data after you die. The company says it’s a secure way to give trusted people access to photos, files and messages. To set it up you’ll need an Apple device with a fairly recent operating system — iPhones and iPads need iOS or iPadOS 15.2 and MacBooks needs macOS Monterey 12.1.
For iPhones, go to settings, tap Sign-in & Security and then Legacy Contact. You can name one or more people, and they don’t need an Apple ID or device.
You’ll have to share an access key with your contact. It can be a digital version sent electronically, or you can print a copy or save it as a screenshot or PDF.
Take note that there are some types of files you won’t be able to pass on — including digital rights-protected music, movies and passwords stored in Apple’s password manager. Legacy contacts can only access a deceased user’s account for three years before Apple deletes the account.
Google
Google takes a different approach with its Inactive Account Manager, which allows you to share your data with someone if it notices that you’ve stopped using your account.
When setting it up, you need to decide how long Google should wait — from three to 18 months — before considering your account inactive. Once that time is up, Google can notify up to 10 people.
You can write a message informing them you’ve stopped using the account, and, optionally, include a link to download your data. You can choose what types of data they can access — including emails, photos, calendar entries and YouTube videos.
There’s also an option to automatically delete your account after three months of inactivity, so your contacts will have to download any data before that deadline.
Facebook and Instagram
Some social media platforms can preserve accounts for people who have died so that friends and family can honor their memories.
When users of Facebook or Instagram die, parent company Meta says it can memorialize the account if it gets a “valid request” from a friend or family member. Requests can be submitted through an online form.
The social media company strongly recommends Facebook users add a legacy contact to look after their memorial accounts. Legacy contacts can do things like respond to new friend requests and update pinned posts, but they can’t read private messages or remove or alter previous posts. You can only choose one person, who also has to have a Facebook account.
You can also ask Facebook or Instagram to delete a deceased user’s account if you’re a close family member or an executor. You’ll need to send in documents like a death certificate.
TikTok
The video-sharing platform says that if a user has died, people can submit a request to memorialize the account through the settings menu. Go to the Report a Problem section, then Account and profile, then Manage account, where you can report a deceased user.
Once an account has been memorialized, it will be labeled “Remembering.” No one will be able to log into the account, which prevents anyone from editing the profile or using the account to post new content or send messages.
X
It’s not possible to nominate a legacy contact on Elon Musk’s social media site. But family members or an authorized person can submit a request to deactivate a deceased user’s account.
Passwords
Besides the major online services, you’ll probably have dozens if not hundreds of other digital accounts that your survivors might need to access. You could just write all your login credentials down in a notebook and put it somewhere safe. But making a physical copy presents its own vulnerabilities. What if you lose track of it? What if someone finds it?
Instead, consider a password manager that has an emergency access feature. Password managers are digital vaults that you can use to store all your credentials. Some, like Keeper,Bitwarden and NordPass, allow users to nominate one or more trusted contacts who can access their keys in case of an emergency such as a death.
But there are a few catches: Those contacts also need to use the same password manager and you might have to pay for the service.
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Is there a tech challenge you need help figuring out? Write to us at onetechtip@ap.org with your questions.
The Canadian Paediatric Society says doctors should regularly screen children for reading difficulties and dyslexia, calling low literacy a “serious public health concern” that can increase the risk of other problems including anxiety, low self-esteem and behavioural issues, with lifelong consequences.
New guidance issued Wednesday says family doctors, nurses, pediatricians and other medical professionals who care for school-aged kids are in a unique position to help struggling readers access educational and specialty supports, noting that identifying problems early couldhelp kids sooner — when it’s more effective — as well as reveal other possible learning or developmental issues.
The 10 recommendations include regular screening for kids aged four to seven, especially if they belong to groups at higher risk of low literacy, including newcomers to Canada, racialized Canadians and Indigenous Peoples. The society says this can be done in a two-to-three-minute office-based assessment.
Other tips encourage doctors to look for conditions often seen among poor readers such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder; to advocate for early literacy training for pediatric and family medicine residents; to liaise with schools on behalf of families seeking help; and to push provincial and territorial education ministries to integrate evidence-based phonics instruction into curriculums, starting in kindergarten.
Dr. Scott McLeod, one of the authors and chair of the society’s mental health and developmental disabilities committee, said a key goal is to catch kids who may be falling through the cracks and to better connect families to resources, including quicker targeted help from schools.
“Collaboration in this area is so key because we need to move away from the silos of: everything educational must exist within the educational portfolio,” McLeod said in an interview from Calgary, where he is a developmental pediatrician at Alberta Children’s Hospital.
“Reading, yes, it’s education, but it’s also health because we know that literacy impacts health. So I think that a statement like this opens the window to say: Yes, parents can come to their health-care provider to get advice, get recommendations, hopefully start a collaboration with school teachers.”
McLeod noted that pediatricians already look for signs of low literacy in young children by way of a commonly used tool known as the Rourke Baby Record, which offers a checklist of key topics, such as nutrition and developmental benchmarks, to cover in a well-child appointment.
But he said questions about reading could be “a standing item” in checkups and he hoped the society’s statement to medical professionals who care for children “enhances their confidence in being a strong advocate for the child” while spurring partnerships with others involved in a child’s life such as teachers and psychologists.
The guidance said pediatricians also play a key role in detecting and monitoring conditions that often coexist with difficulty reading such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, but McLeod noted that getting such specific diagnoses typically involves a referral to a specialist, during which time a child continues to struggle.
He also acknowledged that some schools can be slow to act without a specific diagnosis from a specialist, and even then a child may end up on a wait list for school interventions.
“Evidence-based reading instruction shouldn’t have to wait for some of that access to specialized assessments to occur,” he said.
“My hope is that (by) having an existing statement or document written by the Canadian Paediatric Society … we’re able to skip a few steps or have some of the early interventions present,” he said.
McLeod added that obtaining specific assessments from medical specialists is “definitely beneficial and advantageous” to know where a child is at, “but having that sort of clear, thorough assessment shouldn’t be a barrier to intervention starting.”
McLeod said the society was partly spurred to act by 2022’s “Right to Read Inquiry Report” from the Ontario Human Rights Commission, which made 157 recommendations to address inequities related to reading instruction in that province.
He called the new guidelines “a big reminder” to pediatric providers, family doctors, school teachers and psychologists of the importance of literacy.
“Early identification of reading difficulty can truly change the trajectory of a child’s life.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.
