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Would an NHL team really tank the Play-In round?

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On Friday, the NHL had it’s annual Draft Lottery to determine which team will get to draft the first overall pick in 2020. The consensus first overall pick, Alexis Lafreniere, was on the broadcast (via video call) and sat there for 30 minutes only to still not know which team is going to pick him!

The Ottawa Senators won the third overall pick (though it felt like a loss since they are picking third and fifth even though their pick odds were second- and third-best in the lottery).

The Los Angeles Kings moved up to take the second spot and the chance to draft sure-fire a franchise center in Quinton Byfield.

And then the first overall pick went to…

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SECAUCUS, NEW JERSEY – JUNE 26: National Hockey League Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly announces draft positions during Phase 1 of the 2020 NHL Draft Lottery on June 26, 2020 at the NHL Network’s studio in Secaucus, New Jersey.
Photo by Bruce Bennett/NHLI via Getty Images

 

THE NHL?!?! No, almost, kinda. It went to one of the Return to Play teams that has yet to be determined. Once the Play-In round happens, the eight losers will be thrown into a second lottery where they’ll all have equal chances at landing the first overall pick.

The Colorado Avalanche are not among these teams eligible as they finished high enough in the Conference to earn a bye through the Play-In, one of eight teams in the league to do so.

So when the NHL starts playing games and the middle 16 teams in the league are fighting for their playoff lives and a chance to play the top eight teams in the league, they’ll have in their head, “if we lose, we get a pretty good shot at a top-tier left winger.”

That seems like quite a conundrum for teams and is a pretty bad look for the NHL. You don’t want incentive for teams to lose.

And yet here it is. So what should teams do?

The Odds

Dom L. of The Athletic has a statistical model of the NHL and has created odds for each Play-In team to win the first overall pick. It’s their odds of losing to their Play-In opponent multiplied by their odds for the lottery, 12.5%. As you can see, the Blue Jackets and Leafs are on opposite ends of the chart because Dom has the Leafs as major favorites in their series.

Dom also has odds for who’s most likely to win the Stanley Cup. In this one, Tampa Bay is the heavy favorite and Colorado is down in ninth. Roughly speaking, the Avalanche have poor odds against who they’re most likely to play in the second and fourth rounds. He doesn’t think they match up well against the East. Again, you can see who the Avalanche are likely to play against in this article here.

Pros to Tanking

So for a team like the Leafs, the odds of winning the Cup or getting Lafreniere is about equal. 5% vs. 4.5%. For the Columbus Blue Jackets, it’s almost 0% to 8%. And during a pandemic, does a team even want to go through a long, unlikely, and potentially harmful slog through the playoffs if they can sit at home and improve their team massively with a few lottery balls? Every single team on that first list could use a star left winger (or Quinton Byfield if they’re getting wild).

  • Better odds of the first overall pick then of the Cup
  • Reduces COVID-19 health risks
  • Just need to win one lottery vs. four rounds of playoffs

Cons to Tanking

I don’t know the specific rules behind how the Host City system is going to work, and I don’t think the NHL knows either. I’ve tried to find out if eliminated teams will be allowed to go home or if they’ll be stuck in the bubble until the Stanley Cup is awarded. There are some pros to this, for example at least they’ll have someone in attendance. The Eastern Conference eliminated teams cheering on the Western Conference champion (the Avalanche). For that, I don’t completely know if teams would be allowed to go home and would therefore be safer than in a hockey bubble where hundreds, or maybe over a thousand people are interacting with each other.

As for the “integrity of the game,” every single hockey player has been hardwired to win, to not tank or intentionally lose. In the rare cases this has been done, it’s been a major scandal. I doubt any coach or player would be on board, even if the GM is salivating at the first overall pick. It would be hard to coerce players into losing on purpose.

  • No player would ever do it
  • GM would get flamed for proposing it
  • It’s possible teams would have to remain in the bubble even after eliminated

I think we’re going to get a lot of finger-pointing and chaos after the Play-In round when we find out the winners and losers. The lack of talent discrepancy among most of the teams in the Play-In plus the classic hockey randomness factor, there’s going to be a lot of interesting teams in the mix for the first overall pick. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), none of them will be the Avalanche.

Poll

Which would you rather win this year if you were a Play-In team?

  • 74%
    Stanley Cup

    (119 votes)

  • 25%
    First Overall Pick

    (40 votes)



159 votes total

Vote Now

Poll

Would you try to tank if you were a GM/Coach/Player?

  • 20%
    Yes

    (27 votes)

  • 79%
    No

    (104 votes)



131 votes total

Vote Now

Poll

Which team do you think will pick first this year?

  • 5%
    Columbus (aka Flavortown)

    (8 votes)

  • 24%
    Montreal

    (34 votes)

  • 13%
    Arizona

    (18 votes)

  • 7%
    Winnipeg

    (11 votes)

  • 7%
    NY Rangers

    (11 votes)

  • 2%
    Florida

    (4 votes)

  • 10%
    Chicago

    (14 votes)

  • 1%
    Minnesota

    (2 votes)

  • 1%
    Vancouver

    (2 votes)

  • 8%
    Edmonton

    (12 votes)

  • 2%
    NY Islanders

    (3 votes)

  • 0%
    Carolina

    (1 vote)

  • 1%
    Calgary

    (2 votes)

  • 1%
    Nashville

    (2 votes)

  • 5%
    Pittsburgh

    (7 votes)

  • 5%
    Toronto

    (7 votes)



138 votes total

Vote Now

Source:- Mile High Hockey

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Allen on trade to Devils from Habs: 'Sometimes you've got to be a little bit selfish' – Yahoo Canada Sports

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Jake Allen loved being a member of the Montreal Canadiens.

The hockey-mad market, the crackling Bell Centre on a Saturday night, the Original Six franchise’s iconic logo.

The 33-year-old goaltender is also realistic.

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With the Canadiens still in full rebuild mode — and two young netminders in Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau ready for more playing time — Allen could see the writing on the wall.

Desperate for help in their own crease, the New Jersey Devils asked Montreal about the veteran’s availability. But the team, general manager Tom Fitzgerald told reporters earlier this month, was initially on Allen’s no-trade list.

There wasn’t anything the Fredericton product disliked about the organization or city. The Devils simply appeared to have their crease set for years to come.

But when the club that finished with 112 points and made the second round of the playoffs in 2022-23 was badly hampered by poor play from Vitek Vanecek, Nico Daws and Akira Schmid — each netminder owned save percentages below .900 — the Devils circled back.

And Allen had changed his tune.

“Loved my time as a Hab,” he said of pulling on Montreal’s red, white and blue threads. “I always will cherish that. Put on probably the most special jersey in hockey, in my books. But you realize in your career, it doesn’t last forever.

“You’ve got to make decisions sometimes.”

Allen, who is signed through next season, eventually agreed to a deal that sent him to New Jersey ahead of the NHL’s March 8 trade deadline for a conditional third-round pick at the 2025 draft.

Apart from playing meaningful hockey on a team trying to claw its way back into the Eastern Conference playoff race, the swap gave him more runway to get his family settled in a new city instead of waiting to see what this summer’s crowded goalie market might bring.

“Sometimes you’ve got to be a little bit selfish,” said Allen, a Stanley Cup champion with the St. Louis Blues in 2019. “Look yourself in the mirror and wonder what’s best for you and your family.”

He’s been really good for his new team.

Allen was lights out in Tuesday’s first period against the Toronto Maple Leafs, making an eye-popping 25 saves in what would turn into New Jersey’s 6-3 victory.

So far he’s 4-2-0 with a .925 save percentage and a 2.51 goals against average in six starts for the Devils, who sit five points back of the East’s second wild-card spot.

“A real pro,” said interim head coach Travis Green.

Allen is a combined 10-14-3 in 2023-24 with a .900 save percentage and a 3.39 GAA. Across his 11 seasons with St. Louis, Montreal and now New Jersey, he’s 193-164-41 with a .908 save percentage and 2.75 GAA.

“Makes the saves we need to get some momentum back,” Devils captain Nico Hischier said. “If you have a solid goalie in the net, that makes your work easier.”

Allen is also 11-12 with a .924 and a 2.06 GAA all-time in the playoffs — a good sign for his new club should New Jersey manage to make the cut.

For now, though, he’s just enjoying being back in a post-season race.

“I thought this was a good opportunity to come in the rest of this year, play some games,” Allen said.

“It’s been a good start.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 28, 2024.

___

Follow @JClipperton_CP on X.

Joshua Clipperton, The Canadian Press

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Matthews game-time decision for Maple Leafs against Capitals with illness – NHL.com

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TORONTOAuston Matthews will be a game-time decision for the Toronto Maple Leafs against the Washington Capitals at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday (7 p.m. ET; SN1, MNMT) because of an illness.

“It’s going to be on how he feels throughout the day,” Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said.

The forward did not participate in Toronto’s morning skate. Max Domi took his place as the center on a line between Tyler Bertuzzi and Mitch Marner, a right wing recovering from a high-ankle sprain sustained March 7 and will be out the next two games.

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Matthews leads the NHL with 59 goals, one from becoming the ninth player in NHL history with at least two 60-goal seasons. He scored 60 in 73 games in 2021-22, when he won the Rocket Richard Trophy, Hart Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award. He had one goal and nine shots in 23:44 of a 6-3 loss to the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday, which extended his point streak to five games (four goals, seven assists).

He missed one game this season with illness, a 7-0 win against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Dec. 16.

“Of course, it’s an adjustment when your best player is out of the lineup,” Domi said, “when anybody is out of the lineup, but I think we’ve done a great job all year of guys stepping up when they have to, and we just have to continue to do that.”

Toronto defenseman Morgan Rielly will miss his second straight game with an upper-body injury.

“He just remains day to day,” Keefe said. “We’re hopeful he’s going to bounce back here. The one thing that is good is once he gets through this day or two here, it’s not going to be a lingering situation. It’s not going to be an injury that’s ongoing. Once he’s past it, he’s past it so we just need to give him some time.”

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Canucks place goalie Thatcher Demko on long-term injured list

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The Vancouver Canucks have placed all-star goalie Thatcher Demko on the long-term injured reserve list retroactively.

“It’s just cap related,” coach Rick Tocchet said after practice Wednesday. “We get some cap relief, that’s all it is.”

The 28-year-old netminder has been considered week to week since being sidelined with a lower-body injury midway through Vancouver’s 5-0 win over the Winnipeg Jets on March 9.

That injury designation hasn’t changed, Tocchet said.

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Demko boasts a 34-18-2 record this season, with a .917 save percentage, a 2.47 goals-against average and five shutouts.

Casey DeSmith has taken over the starting job for Vancouver, going 3-2-1 since Demko’s injury. He has a .899 save percentage on the season with a 2.73 goals-against average and one shutout.

The earliest Demko could be back in the Canucks’ lineup is April 6 against the Kings in Los Angeles.

He’s expected to be a key piece as Vancouver (45-19-8) prepares for its first playoff appearance since the COVID-shortened 2019-20 campaign.

Canucks general manager Patrik Allvin also announced Wednesday that the club has called up forward Arshdeep Bains from the Abbotsford Canucks of the American Hockey League.

“I’d like to see where [Bains is] at,” Tocchet said, noting he isn’t sure whether the 23-year-old winger will slot into the lineup when the Canucks host the Dallas Stars on Thursday.

WATCH | Bains makes NHL debut

 

Surrey, B.C.’s Arshdeep Bains makes Canucks debut

1 month ago

Duration 2:20

Arshdeep Bains from Surrey, B.C., has made his NHL debut with the Vancouver Canucks Tuesday night against the Colorado Avalanche. As CBC’s Joel Ballard reports, it’s been a hard-fought journey for the hometown kid to the big leagues.

Bains played five games for the NHL team in February before being sent back to Abbotsford.

“He went down, he’s done a couple of things that we like, and he’s got some speed,” Tocchet said.

Vancouver may get another forward back in the lineup Thursday.

Dakota Joshua practised in a full-contact jersey on Wednesday for the first time since suffering an upper-body injury in Vancouver’s 4-2 win over the Blackhawks in Chicago on Feb. 13.

The physical winger, who’s set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, has a career-high 26 points (13 goals, 13 assists) this season.

Sitting out injured “hasn’t been fun,” Joshua said.

“It feels like forever,” he said. “But at this point, that’s behind me and I’m moving forward.”

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