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Xinhua Headlines: Steady Chinese economy making difference in rapidly changing world – Xinhua | English.news.cn – Xinhua

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China has been a major growth engine for the world economy and its economic health has global significance. China’s growth rate, though slowing, is still within the target range. A closer relationship would mean more opportunities and benefits for China and the rest of the world.

by Xinhua writers Zheng Xin, Xu Xiaoqing and Hu Wenjia

SHANGHAI, Dec. 27 (Xinhua) — The world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, with people lamenting the uncertainties and the difficulty to fathom what the future has in store.

The Chinese leadership, having incorporated the concept of “unseen changes” into its decision-making, is sober-minded about the undercurrents: the global economy continues to slow down, the world is still undergoing in-depth adjustments due to the global financial crisis, profound changes are accelerating, and sources of turbulence have substantially increased.

The year-end tone-setting Central Economic Conference painted a clear picture of the challenges, prioritized economic stability, and pledged a stronger policy repertoire toward finishing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects in 2020 and beyond.

Experts said they believe it would be a mistake to ignore the profound changes, which are important for the Communist Party of China’s approaches to so many issues and understanding the opportunities the Party sees for the country.

Aerial photo taken on Oct. 16, 2019 shows the automated wharf of the fourth phase of the Yangshan Deep Water Port of east China’s Shanghai. (Xinhua/Ding Ting)

LULL IN THE CHINA BOOM?

Some profound changes have been felt globally in the sphere of economic activities. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has repeatedly downgraded its global growth forecast for 2020, citing a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity and global trade, with higher tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty damaging investment and demand for capital goods.

As the growth outlook became gloomier, emerging and developing economies are less well-positioned today to withstand a deeper global downturn, should it occur, than they were before the 2009 global recession, according to a new World Bank Group study.

Since the financial crisis a decade ago, emerging and developing economies have become “more vulnerable” to external shocks in an environment of “mounting debt and weakening long-term growth prospects,” the study found.

Rodrigo Zeidan, an associate professor of business and finance at New York University Shanghai, said one aspect of the profound changes is the process of de-globalization fueled by exacerbated nationalism and protectionist trade policies.

“This has profound implications for how China manages its economic relationships with the rest of the world,” he told Xinhua in an interview, noting that the profound changes could also make avoiding the middle-income trap to achieve high-income fully-developed status more challenging for China.

China is seeing a slower growth rate as it steps up economic restructuring. The country is transforming from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, no longer driven by manufacturing but by consumption and the service sector, with more investment into innovation and technology.

People watch welding robots operating at the equipment exhibition area during the second China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, east China, Nov. 6, 2019. (Xinhua/Fang Zhe)

“It’s crucial for China’s economy to move up in the technological chain and in the value chain, so we are focusing on economic restructuring, and China’s growth rate has slowed down in the process,” said Zhang Weiwei, director of the China Institute of Fudan University in Shanghai.

“Given the sheer size of China’s economy, a dip in growth rate is no cause for heightened worries over the stable economic trajectory,” Zhang said, adding that doomsayers targeting China’s economy should pay more attention to the quality of growth and how the nation stands at the forefront of the new round of technological revolution.

Voicing her confidence in China’s future growth amid low global economic growth, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the measures that the Chinese government had taken to prop up the economy, including tax and fee cuts, small trims in interest rates and supply-side structural reforms would be good for growth today and also competitiveness in the future.

Kristalina Georgieva, chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), delivers a speech in Washington D.C., the United States, Oct. 8, 2019. (Xinhua/Liu Jie)

SOURCE OF CERTAINTY

“The profound changes include positive changes, negative changes, and changes with uncertain prospects and uncertainties,” said Long Yongtu, China’s former chief negotiator for entry into the World Trade Organization. “The most positive change, in my view, is the rise of China.”

Commenting on how China will cope with the challenges ahead, Long said: “Facing the turbulent situation, our government and enterprises need to maintain their resolve, especially when it comes to opening up.”

He noted that the Chinese government remains committed to further opening up amid de-globalization, with the annual China International Import Expo and joint building of the Belt and Road Initiative enhancing the engagement between China and the world.

Zhu Xian, vice president of the New Development Bank, said: “China’s reform and opening-up have catapulted the country to a highly competitive manufacturing base in the global industrial chain, and further reform and opening-up will enable China to achieve long-term stable and sustainable development.”

China has been a major growth engine for the world economy and its economic health has global significance. China’s growth rate, though slowing, is still within the target range. A closer relationship would mean more opportunities and benefits for China and the rest of the world.

Aerial photo taken on Oct. 16, 2019 shows the Yangshan Deep Water Port of east China’s Shanghai. (Xinhua/Ding Ting)

According to a research report by McKinsey Global Institute, China has achieved a global scale in many sectors, and a great deal of value could be at stake depending on whether there is more or less engagement.

China’s rapidly expanding consumer market — confident, increasingly rich and sophisticated, and willing to experiment — offers a strong link between China and the world. It is not only the prime engine for economic growth but is a huge opportunity for international businesses, according to the report.

“More engagement could see China importing more from the rest of the world, greater two-way flows of technology, and a more competitive Chinese services sector,” the report said, adding that better integration will also increase the possibility of reaching a consensus in addressing key global issues.

The year ahead will see China implement a slew of new measures to bolster opening up. The reduction of import tariffs on more than 850 products is set to take effect from Jan. 1, 2020, and the foreign investment law will take effect on the same day to provide a more business-friendly environment.

“We believe that economic globalization is irreversible. The more you keep opening up and embrace this trend, the better,” said Zhang Weiwei. ■

(Video reporters: Di Chun, Hu Wenjia; Video editor: Chen Sihong)

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Soft landing hopes for U.S. economy brighten outlook on stocks – The Globe and Mail

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Optimism is seeping back into the U.S. stock market, as some investors grow more convinced that the economy may avoid a severe downturn even as it copes with high inflation.

The benchmark S&P 500 has rebounded about 15% since mid-June, halving its year-to-date loss, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up 20% over that time. Many of the so-called meme stocks that had been pummeled in the first half of the year have come screaming back, while the Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, stands near a four-month low.

In the past week, bullish sentiment reached its highest level since March, according to a survey from the American Association of Individual Investors. Earlier this year, that gauge tumbled to its lowest in nearly 30 years, when stocks swooned on worries over how the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening would hit the economy.

“We have experienced a fair amount of pain, but the perspective in how people are trading has turned violently towards a glass half full versus a glass half empty,” said Mark Hackett, Nationwide’s chief of investment research.

Data over the last two weeks bolstered hopes that the Fed can achieve a soft landing for the economy. While last week’s strong jobs report allayed fears of recession, inflation numbers this week showed the largest month-on-month deceleration of consumer price increases since 1973.

The shift in market mood was reflected in data released by BoFA Global Research on Friday: tech stocks saw their largest inflows in around two months over the past week, while Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, which are used to hedge against inflation, notched their fifth straight week of outflows.

“If in fact a soft landing is possible, then you’d want to see the kind of data inputs that we have seen thus far,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. “Strong jobs number and declining inflation would both be important inputs into that theory.”

Through Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 1.5% for the week, on track for its fourth straight week of gains.

Until recently, optimism was hard to come by. Equity positioning last month stood in the 12th percentile of its range since January 2010, a July 29 note by Deutsche Bank analysts said, and some market participants have attributed the big jump in stocks to investors rapidly unwinding their bearish bets.

With stock market gyrations dropping to multi-month lows, further support for equities could come from funds that track volatility and turn bullish when market swings subside.

Volatility targeting funds could soak up about $100 billion of equity exposure in the coming months if gyrations remain muted, said Anand Omprakash, head of derivatives quantitative strategy at Elevation Securities.

“Should their allocation increase, this would provide a tailwind for equity prices,” Omprakash said.

Investors next week will be watching retail sales and housing data. Earnings reports are also due from a number of top retailers, including Walmart and Home Depot, that will give fresh insight into the health of the consumer.

Plenty of trepidation remains in markets, with many investors still bruised from the S&P 500′s 20.6% tumble in the first six months of the year.

Fed officials have pushed back on expectations that the central bank will end its rate hikes sooner than anticipated, and economists have warned that inflation could return in coming months.

Some investors have grown alarmed at how quickly risk appetite has rebounded. The Ark Innovation ETF, a prominent casualty of this year’s bear market, has soared around 35% since mid-June, while shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings , one of the original “meme stocks,” have doubled over that time.

“You look across assets right now, and you don’t see a lot of risks priced in anymore to markets,” said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.

Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, believes technical resistance and ballooning stock valuations are likely to make it difficult for the S&P 500 to advance far beyond the 4200-4300 level. The index was recently at 4249 on Friday afternoon.

Seasonality may also play a role. September – when the Fed holds its next monetary policy meeting – has been the worst month for stocks, with the S&P 500 losing an average 1.04% since 1928, Refinitiv data showed.

Wall Streeters taking vacations throughout August could also drain volume and stir volatility, said Hogan, of B. Riley Wealth.

“Lighter liquidity tends to exaggerate or exacerbate moves,” he said.

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Malaysian economy smashes forecasts, growing 8.9 percent in Q2 – Al Jazeera English

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Southeast Asian country continues strong pandemic recovery after reopening its borders in April.

Malaysia’s economy grew at its fastest annual pace in a year in the second quarter, boosted by an expansion in domestic demand and resilient exports, but a slowdown in global growth is expected to pose a risk to the outlook for the rest of 2022.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in April-June surged 8.9 percent from a year earlier, the central bank said. This was faster than the 6.7 percent growth forecast in a Reuters poll and was up from the 5 percent annual rise in the previous quarter.

It was also quicker than any annual rate seen since the second quarter of 2021, when GDP was 16.1 percent higher than a low year-earlier base.

Seasonally adjusted GDP for April-June was up 3.5 percent on the previous three months, when quarterly growth was 3.8 percent.

Malaysia’s economy has been on a strong recovery path since the country reopened its borders in April.

“Going forward, the economy is projected to continue to recover in the second half of 2022, albeit at a more moderate pace amid global headwinds,” Central Bank of Malaysia Governor Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus told a news conference.

Full-year growth for 2022 would likely be at the upper end of the previously forecast range of 5.3 percent to 6.3 percent, Nor Shamsiah said.

Headline and core inflation were expected to average higher in 2022, though Nor Shamsiah said any adjustments to the overnight policy rate would be measured and gradual to avoid stronger measures in the future.

The central bank lifted its benchmark interest rate for the second straight meeting in July.

Capital Economics said in a note it expected Malaysia’s economic growth to slow in coming quarters, as commodity prices dropped back and the boost from border reopening fades.

“That said, the slowdown is likely to be relatively mild, with the reopening of the international border set to provide decent support to activity,” said Gareth Leather, the group’s senior Asia economist.

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The UK Economy, and Sterling, Face Next Big Crisis This Winter – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Headwinds for the UK economy spell trouble for sterling, and the real test for the Bank of England and the currency may still be in store.

The cost-of-living crisis is about to intertwine with the energy crisis this winter, leaving the BOE in a bind. UK wholesale natural gas prices have more than tripled in the last year and are more than four times higher than the seasonal average over the previous five years. Household energy bills are forecast to rise while the government plans for organized blackouts in a worse-case scenario in January.

If the energy crisis gets out of hand, the market might expect the BOE to pivot because rates can only do so much in the face of supply-driven forces such as Russian gas supplies, inventories, and alternate energy sources that are being tested by climate change.

There is also the question of fiscal support and the uncertainty surrounding it. The BOE has forecast inflation topping 13% in coming months and a recession through 2023 as it raises rates. The central bank is an apolitical body that has no say over government fiscal policies, making whoever becomes the next prime minister that much more significant. Front-runner Liz Truss is pledging an emergency budget and more borrowing to stimulate the economy, while the competing former chancellor Rishi Sunak is advising caution while also vowing to offer more cost-of-living support.

Currency traders aren’t convinced that economic data Friday is enough to prove the economy’s resilience, which is why even as money markets are raising their BOE tightening bets, the pound is the second worst-performing G-10 currency against the dollar on the day.

But it’s fair not to read too much into the curious gross domestic product print. A small contraction was expected given the Jubilee bank holiday, but June’s drop is smaller than in comparable periods, as Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted. July data will likely offer a better picture. It’s possible that numbers would either be revised lower or show that the economy has indeed been more resilient than many expect. Looking ahead, however, there aren’t many other concessions that the pound can give way to.

NOTE: Nour Al Ali writes for Bloomberg’s Markets Live. The observations are her own and not intended as investment advice. For more markets commentary, see the MLIV blog.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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