Yellen Sees Soft Landing as ‘Possible’ Outcome for US Economy | Canada News Media
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Yellen Sees Soft Landing as ‘Possible’ Outcome for US Economy

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(Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said a soft landing is possible for the US economy thanks to its strong labor market and the absence of balance sheet problems like the ones that preceded the global financial crisis.

Her comments, delivered Friday to reporters at a briefing on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Bengaluru, India, echo her more positive tone on the global economic outlook outlined a day earlier.

“I see a soft landing as being a possible outcome and the one that I hope we will be able to achieve,” Yellen said. “The economy is fundamentally in good shape, and inflation is coming down if you measure it on a 12-month basis.”

She cautioned that labor markets remained tight and core inflation, the measure that excludes food and energy, remains higher than is consistent with the 2% target, adding that “there’s still work to do to get it down.”

Recent indicators have shown a strong start for the economy in 2023, with job growth, retail sales and service-sector activity all accelerating in January. The monthly pace of consumer-price gains also picked up.

Meanwhile, US economic growth in the fourth quarter was weaker than previously estimated, Commerce Department data showed, reflecting a downward revision to consumer spending as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation figures were revised higher.

Yellen also sounded optimistic that a way forward could be found to address concerns raised by allies including the European Union over access to raw materials used in batteries, saying that trade treaties between the US and partners focused on so-called critical minerals probably won’t require Congressional approval.

President Joe Biden’s administration has focused on such deals to lessen China’s role in supply chains for green energy technology, particularly those needed in electric vehicle batteries such as lithium and cobalt. More narrowly, they would allow partner countries to tap some benefits for automakers in the recent Inflation Reduction Act.

The US climate package includes about $500 billion in new spending and tax breaks over a decade to promote US manufacturing and services and gives certain exceptions for countries that have free-trade agreements with the US like Canada, Mexico and Australia.

Its focus on boosting American industry has angered trade partners from Asia and Europe who said it discriminated against their companies, particularly carmakers. The EU has been pushing for an agreement that would grant it equivalent status as a trade-accord partner of the US, while some of the bloc’s top officials are heading to Washington next month hoping to smooth over tensions tied to the plan.

–With assistance from Ramsey Al-Rikabi.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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