Yield Curve Gets Ugly, 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 1% for First Time Ever, 30-Year at Record Low, on Rising Inflation - WOLF STREET | Canada News Media
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Yield Curve Gets Ugly, 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 1% for First Time Ever, 30-Year at Record Low, on Rising Inflation – WOLF STREET

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Ready for another shock-and-awe panic-cut by the Fed? Last time the Fed panic-cut was in 2007/2008, and look what happened to stocks.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Spooked by the Fed’s shock-and-awe surprise 50-basis-point rate cut, the already frazzled markets did a job today. Gold surged nearly 3%. The three major stock indices all swooned nearly 3%. And Treasury yields plunged across the board.

The 10-year Treasury yield plunged from 1.13% pre-announcement to an intraday low of 0.935%, and closed officially at 1.02%. When the yield drops, it means that bond prices rise. In late trading the yield fell below 1% again, and is currently at 0.997% reflected in the chart (data via Investing.com):

The one-month yield – in a sign that this was a surprise act – plunged 34 basis points, most of it instantly, from 1.45% just before the shock-and-awe rate-cut announcement to 1.11% at the close, which put it in the middle of the Fed’s new federal-funds target range between 1.0% and 1.25%.

The three-month Treasury yield plunged from 1.20% just before the announcement to 0.95%, already pricing in another rate cut well before its maturity in 90 days.

The two-year yield plunged to 0.72%, the lowest point on today’s yield curve. The 30-year yield ticked down 2 basis points to 1.64%, a record low.

The chart below shows the increasingly ugly yield curve yesterday at the close (black line) and today at the close (red line), for each maturity, from the one-month yield on the left, to the 30-year yield on the right:

At this point, nearly the entire yield curve is below our most doctored and repressed US inflation gauge, the Fed’s preferred “core PCE,” which languishes at 1.6%. And the entire yield curve is far below the Cleveland Fed’s median CPI, which has surged to 2.9%.

The Median CPI is based on the data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) but removes the extremes of price increases and price decreases, that are often temporary, to reveal underlying inflation trends:

Generally speaking, plunging Treasury yields, while inflation is rising, are not a sign of confidence, other than confidence in yields falling even further due to fears of more mayhem coming at the markets which would make the Fed react even more vigorously by cutting rates even further.

Investors who bought Treasuries before the rate cut and sold afterwards made a very quick buck, especially if it was a leveraged bet.

But lower yields are bad news for fixed-income investors of all kinds that have to replace maturing securities with new low-yielding securities. These fixed-income products amount to over $40 trillion in the US, including Treasury securities, bank savings products, investment-grade corporate bonds, municipal bonds, asset-backed securities, and the like.

Much of this stuff now yields below the rate of inflation as measured by median CPI, meaning that interest income doesn’t even compensate investors for the loss of purchasing power of their principal due to inflation. New buyers of these securities get their cash flows from interest payments confiscated by the Fed’s monetary policy.

So they can invest in the still immensely overpriced stock market, and count on meager and fragile dividend yields, or they can stand on the edge of a cliff and look down and see if they have enough of a death wish to buy Ford shares for their 8% dividend yield. Dividends can get cut any time, no sweat. And those fixed-income investors chasing yield among dividends have a good chance of losing a lot of principal a lot more quickly than the damage inflation might do.

By the stock market’s reaction today to the Fed’s shock-and-awe surprise 50-basis point rate cut – it should have caused stocks to soar, but caused them to plunge nearly 3% instead – it would seem that another such shock-and-awe event signals even more panic inside the Fed, and who knows how the stock market might react when it sees the Fed panicking.

There is historic precedent: Most recently, the Fed started cutting its policy rates in late 2007 and was slashing them wholesale in big panic-cuts in 2008, seeing whatever it saw. Then Lehman blew up, and by then, all heck had broken lose in the stock market.

Were they disappointed the Fed didn’t print antibodies? Read….  Stocks Sag as Fed Cures Coronavirus by Cutting Rates ½ Percentage Point

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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