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Yost: Edmonton Oilers’ season has been a tale of two teams – TSN

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It would take a minor miracle for the Edmonton Oilers to not reach the postseason this year.

Playing at a 101-point pace (82-game adjusted) and with an eight-point lead over the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks entering play Monday, Dave Tippett’s team is well-positioned to play beyond the end of the regular season.

Reaching the postseason is not an insignificant milestone. In the six-year era of Connor McDavid in Edmonton, the Oilers have just two playoff berths – a disappointing showing for an organization icing the best hockey player on Earth.

One of those (2019-20) came during the pandemic-paused season, and the Oilers ended up losing in a 3-1 upset at the hands of the Chicago Blackhawks in the qualifying round.

It goes without saying that the organization and fan base alike are looking for a little bit more than qualifying for the round of 16.

But one of the points of concern with the Oilers so far this season is that they really have been a tale of two teams.

There is one that pummels lower-tier teams, especially ones that can’t contain the pace and speed of the Oilers’ attacking units.

There is a second that struggles when the competition stiffens. To be sure, it is not merely the fact that the Oilers have had a hard time accumulating wins against more talented clubs. It is more so how significant the splits in performance between the two are.

The North Division already has notable separation between playoff and non-playoff teams – Toronto, Edmonton, Montreal, and Winnipeg all have an 85 per cent or greater chance of qualifying. As such, we will bifurcate the division into two and measure results.

Edmonton is 7-9-1 against playoff-bound teams, and 13-5-0 against non-playoff teams. That’s well within reason. But consider the splits underpinning those games:

The Oilers have absolutely bludgeoned the weaker teams in the North, outscoring them 76 to 44 (+32) in the process. The opposite has been true against tougher competition, with the Oilers being outscored 57 to 43 (-14) there.

Expected goal rates indicate that Edmonton’s had a bit of poor luck against the playoff teams, but consider the splits there between playoff and non-playoff teams. On the offensive side, the Oilers have been about 15 per cent less effective at creating dangerous offence.

Some of this is percentage driven. The shooting and save percentage splits, as one would envision from the rate goal numbers above, are significantly variant:

– Against playoff teams: 13.3 per cent shooting for, 7.8 per cent shooting against

– Against non-playoff teams: 8.4 per cent shooting for, 11.0 per cent shooting against

Another important point: Edmonton seems to be trading these goals off everywhere when they have to step up against better competition.

The one area that has held, ironically enough, has been their defensive play at even strength. But scoring at even strength has been a nightmare for the Oilers against playoff-calibre clubs, and those failures so far this season carry over (significantly) to the man advantage.

Compounding the issue: a penalty kill that looks Jekyll and Hyde, depending on who they are playing:

If you aggregate just the special teams results here, you can explain why Edmonton is in the middle of the playoff pack instead of sitting atop the division.

Against playoff teams, the Oilers net special teams advantage is -7 goals, and we know that’s the result of a slowed power play and a leaky penalty kill. In nearly the same amount of minutes against non-playoff teams, the Oilers are +13 goals better than their opponents – a 20-goal swing between the two.

Outside of the superstars (and even they have had a relative step down in performance) in McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the entire team just hasn’t been good enough against tougher competition.

The good news? They have seven more opportunities against the Toronto, Montreal, and Winnipeg triumvirate, and a chance to position themselves for a run beyond postseason qualification.

Data via Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, NHL.com  

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Canada’s Marina Stakusic falls in Guadalajara Open quarterfinals

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GUADALAJARA, Mexico – Canada’s Marina Stakusic fell 6-4, 6-3 to Poland’s Magdalena Frech in the quarterfinals of the Guadalajara Open tennis tournament on Friday.

The 19-year-old from Mississauga, Ont., won 61 per cent of her first-serve points and broke on just one of her six opportunities.

Stakusic had upset top-seeded Jelena Ostapenko of Latvia 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (0) on Thursday night to advance.

In the opening round, Stakusic defeated Slovakia’s Anna Karolína Schmiedlová 6-2, 6-4 on Tuesday.

The fifth-seeded Frech won 62 per cent of her first-serve points and converted on three of her nine break point opportunities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Kirk’s walk-off single in 11th inning lifts Blue Jays past Cardinals 4-3

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TORONTO – Alejandro Kirk’s long single with the bases loaded provided the Toronto Blue Jays with a walk-off 4-3 win in the 11th inning of their series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday.

With the Cardinals outfield in, Kirk drove a shot off the base of the left-field wall to give the Blue Jays (70-78) their fourth win in 11 outings and halt the Cardinals’ (74-73) two-game win streak before 30,380 at Rogers Centre.

Kirk enjoyed a two-hit, two-RBI outing.

Erik Swanson (2-2) pitched a perfect 11th inning for the win, while Cardinals reliever Ryan Fernandez (1-5) took the loss.

Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman enjoyed a seven-inning, 104-pitch outing. He surrendered his two runs on nine hits and two walks and fanned only two Cardinals.

He gave way to reliever Genesis Cabrera, who gave up a one-out homer to Thomas Saggese, his first in 2024, that tied the game in the eighth.

The Cardinals started swiftly with four straight singles to open the game. But they exited the first inning with only two runs on an RBI single to centre from Nolan Arendao and a fielder’s choice from Saggese.

Gausman required 28 pitches to escape the first inning but settled down to allow his teammates to snatch the lead in the fourth.

He also deftly pitched out of threats from the visitors in the fifth, sixth and seventh thanks to some solid defence, including Will Wagner’s diving stop, which led to a double play to end the fifth inning.

George Springer led off with a walk and stole second base. He advanced to third on Nathan Lukes’s single and scored when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. knocked in his 95th run with a double off the left-field wall.

Lukes scored on a sacrifice fly to left field from Spencer Horwitz. Guerrero touched home on Kirk’s two-out single to right.

In the ninth, Guerrero made a critical diving catch on an Arenado grounder to throw out the Cardinals’ infielder, with reliever Tommy Nance covering first. The defensive gem ended the inning with a runner on second base.

St. Louis starter Erick Fedde faced the minimum night batters in the first three innings thanks to a pair of double plays. He lasted five innings, giving up three runs on six hits and a walk with three strikeouts.

ON DECK

Toronto ace Jose Berrios (15-9) will start the second of the three-game series on Saturday. He has a six-game win streak.

The Cardinals will counter with righty Kyle Gibson (8-6).

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Stampeders return to Maier at QB eyeing chance to get on track against Alouettes

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CALGARY – Mired in their first four-game losing skid in 20 years, the Calgary Stampeders are going back to Jake Maier at quarterback on Saturday after he was benched for a game.

It won’t be an easy assignment.

Visiting McMahon Stadium are the Eastern Conference-leading Montreal Alouettes (10-2) who own the CFL’s best record. The Stampeders (4-8) have fallen to last in the Western Conference.

“Six games is plenty of time, but also it is just six games,” said Maier. “We’ve got to be able to get on the right track.”

Calgary is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

“I do still believe in this team,” said Stampeders’ head coach and general manager Dave Dickenson. “I want to see improvement, though. I want to see guys on a weekly basis elevating their game, and we haven’t been doing that.”

Maier is one of the guys under the microscope. Two weeks ago, the second-year starter threw four interceptions in a 35-20 home loss to the Edmonton Elks.

After his replacement, rookie Logan Bonner, threw five picks in last week’s 37-16 loss to the Elks in Edmonton, the football is back in Maier’s hands.

“Any time you fail or something doesn’t go your way in life, does it stink in the moment? Yeah. But then the days go on and you learn things about yourself and you learn how to prepare a little bit better,” said Maier. “It makes you mentally tougher.”

Dickenson wants to see his quarterback making better decisions with the football.

“Things are going to happen, interceptions will happen, but try to take calculated risks, rather than just putting the ball up there and hoping that we catch it,” said Dickenson.

A former quarterback himself, he knows the importance of that vital position.

“You cannot win without good quarterback play,” Dickenson said. “You’ve got to be able to make some plays — off-schedule plays, move-around plays, plays that break down, plays that aren’t designed perfectly, but somehow you found the right guy, and then those big throws where you’re taking that hit.”

But it’s going to take a team effort, and that includes the club’s receiving corp.

“We always have to band together because we need everything to go right for our receivers to get the ball,” said Nik Lewis, the Stampeders’ receivers coach. “The running back has to pick up the blitz, the o-line has to block, the quarterback has to make the right reads, and then give us a catchable ball.”

Lewis brings a unique perspective to this season’s frustrations as he was a 22-year-old rookie in Calgary in 2004 when the Stamps went 4-14 under coach Matt Dunigan. They turned it around the next season and haven’t missed the playoffs since.”

“Thinking back and just looking at it, there’s just got to be an ultimate belief that you can get it done. Look at Montreal, they were 6-7 last year and they’ve gone 18-2 since then,” said Lewis.

Montreal is also looking to rebound from a 37-23 loss to the B.C. Lions last week. But for head coach Jason Maas, he says his team’s mindset doesn’t change, regardless of what happened the previous week.

“Last year when we went through a four-game losing streak, you couldn’t tell if we were on a four-game winning streak or a four-game losing streak by the way the guys were in the building, the way we prepared, the type of work ethic we have,” said Maas. “All our standards are set, so that’s all we focus on.”

While they may have already clinched a playoff spot, Alouettes’ quarterback Cody Fajardo says this closing stretch remains critical because they want to finish the season strong, just like last year when they won their final five regular-season games before ultimately winning the Grey Cup.

“It doesn’t matter about what you do at the beginning of the year,” said Fajardo. “All that matters is how you end the year and how well you’re playing going into the playoffs so that’s what these games are about.”

The Alouettes’ are kicking off a three-game road stretch, one Fajardo looks forward to.

“You understand what kind of team you have when you play on the road because it’s us versus the world mentality and you can feel everybody against you,” said Fajardo. “Plus, I always tend to find more joy in silencing thousands of people than bringing thousands of people to their feet.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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