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You now need to make an extra $18000 to pass the mortgage stress test – The Globe and Mail

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A home for sale in Toronto’s Annex neighbourhood is photographed on July 18.Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

The housing market appears to have cooled in recent weeks, but that doesn’t mean it’s now more affordable to enter the market. In fact, owing to rising interest rates, the opposite is true.

Within the past four months, the average yearly income needed to buy a home on a fixed mortgage with 20 per cent down has climbed by $18,000, according to new data from Ratehub, a loan-comparison website. It determined these numbers by contrasting real estate data from March with June, using the average mortgage rates of Canada’s five largest banks.

In Vancouver, would-be homebuyers must now take home a minimum of $232,000 a year to afford a home, an increase of almost $32,000 since March. To purchase a home in Toronto, Ratehub.ca says people need to make roughly $226,000 a year, an additional $16,000 in four months time.

Monthly payments on variable-rate mortgages could increase as borrowers near their ‘trigger rate’

What is your mortgage trigger rate? This calculator helps you estimate it

The greatest increase since March occurred in Victoria, where the minimum annual income to afford a home, on average, is pegged at $188,000 – ballooning by 23 per cent, or about $36,000.

The mortgage stress test is to blame for these large jumps. As concerns over inflation have pushed mortgage rates up in recent weeks, the threshold required to pass the government-mandated mortgage stress test has also risen, making homeownership even less attainable to many Canadians.

The stress test was first introduced during the 2016-2017 housing boom to ensure that homebuyers could afford their mortgage payments if interest rates rose, as well as to slow the frenetic markets in Toronto and Vancouver.

Interestingly, despite the notion that home prices have declined in markets across the country in the wake of rising interest rates, Ratehub found that among the 10 cities it assessed, only half saw their average home prices shrink between March and June.

”Home prices will need to drop significantly in order to neutralize the effects that higher mortgage rates have on the stress test,” said James Laird, co-CEO of Ratehub. “Unless this happens, home affordability will continue to be impacted significantly by the current rising rate environment.”


Change in annual income required

to buy a home in Canada

New analysis from Ratehub.ca, a loan-comparison website, shows it’s now more expensive to buy a home in Canada than it was a few months ago, despite the fact that the housing market has significantly slowed in many parts of the country. Rising mortgage rates – which have, in turn, caused stress-test rates to tick up – are to blame.

Select cities, June, 2022

Income req.

Increase from March, 2022

% increase

Data are based on: 20 per cent down payment, 25-year amortization, $4,000

annual property taxes and $150 monthly heating; mortgage rates average of

the Big Five banks’ five-year fixed rates in March and June; average home

prices from CREA MLS home price index.

the globe and mail, Source: ratehub.ca

Change in annual income required

to buy a home in Canada

New analysis from Ratehub.ca, a loan-comparison website, shows it’s now more expensive to buy a home in Canada than it was a few months ago, despite the fact that the housing market has significantly slowed in many parts of the country. Rising mortgage rates – which have, in turn, caused stress-test rates to tick up – are to blame.

Select cities, June, 2022

Income req.

Increase from March, 2022

% increase

Data are based on: 20 per cent down payment, 25-year amortization, $4,000

annual property taxes and $150 monthly heating; mortgage rates average of

the Big Five banks’ five-year fixed rates in March and June; average home

prices from CREA MLS home price index.

the globe and mail, Source: ratehub.ca

Change in annual income required to buy a home in Canada

New analysis from Ratehub.ca, a loan-comparison website, shows it’s now more expensive to buy a home in Canada than it was a few months ago, despite the fact that the housing market has significantly slowed in many parts of the country. Rising mortgage rates – which have, in turn, caused stress-test rates to tick up – are to blame.

Select cities, June, 2022

Income required

Increase from March, 2022

% increase

Data are based on: 20 per cent down payment, 25-year amortization, $4,000 annual property taxes and

$150 monthly heating; mortgage rates average of the Big Five banks’ five-year fixed rates in March and

June; average home prices from CREA MLS home price index.

the globe and mail, Source: ratehub.ca

As of last June, the stress test requires potential buyers to prove that they can keep up with mortgage payments at either a minimum rate of 5.25 per cent or their individual mortgage rate plus 2 per cent –whichever is higher.

With historically low interest rates, that meant the stress-test rate was almost universally set at 5.25 per cent for people seeking both variable and fixed-rate mortgages, which appear, by far, to be the most popular option in Canada.

But now that fixed-mortgage rates have increased by two-thirds in only four months, according to Ratehub, many hoping to buy with a fixed rate are facing stress-test rates around 7.21 per cent, on average.

John Pasalis, president of a Toronto-based real estate brokerage called Realosophy Realty, played down the significance of these changes. Most buyers, he said, are now opting for variable-rate mortgages because their stress-test rates are now closer to 6 per cent.

Rising mortgage rates add layers of stress to home ownership

Dave Larock strongly disagrees. The president of Integrated Mortgage Planners Inc., a Toronto firm, told The Globe and Mail these numbers highlight a major regulatory misstep by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), the independent federal agency that oversees the mortgage stress test.

“There should never be a point where a borrower can borrow more if they take a variable rate versus a fixed rate,” Mr. Larock said. “That’s a flaw in the design of the stress test.”

It’s now easier for the most stretched borrowers to qualify for variable-rate mortgages, according to Mr. Larock. OSFI should have addressed this problem at its previous meeting in late June, he added.

“As a banking regulator whose stated goal is to preserve the stability of the market, that was a glaring mistake,” he said.

Mr. Larock, who said he firmly supported the implementation of a stress test, went on to question whether it’s still necessary with rates as high as they are now. If it’s to remain, he said OSFI should set a single stress-test rate for all would-be homebuyers.

With a report from Rachelle Younglai

Are you a young Canadian with money on your mind? To set yourself up for success and steer clear of costly mistakes, listen to our award-winning Stress Test podcast.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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