Chicago, IL – December 15, 2023 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Tesla TSLA, Apple AAPL and Rivian RIVN.
Why Tesla’s Cheap (2024 Outlook)
An Up and Down Year for Tesla
Tesla is the undisputed market leader in battery-powered electric car sales in the United States, enjoying roughly a 70% market share. Over the years, Tesla has shifted from developing niche products for affluent buyers to more affordable EVs for the masses. The firm’s three-pronged business model approach of direct sales, servicing, and charging sets it apart from other carmakers. Year-to-date, shares are higher by 128%. However, investor concerns are mounting, including:
· Valuation: The EV king’s market capitalization is more than the combined value of all legacy automakers.
· Underperformance: Though Tesla has more than doubled this year, it has underperformed the market and “Magnificent 7” recently.
· Recall: This week, news broke that Tesla must recall more than 2 million vehicles.
Below, I will debunk the most common investor concerns and lay out my bull case for the stock:
Don’t Judge a Book By its Cover: Tesla Valuation is Cheap
The price-to-book ratio (P/B ratio) is a financial metric that compares a company’s market value (its stock price) to its book value (the net value of its assets minus liabilities). P/B is calculated by dividing the market price per share by the book value per share.
A low P/B ratio may suggest that a stock is undervalued, while a high ratio may indicate overvaluation. Investors use this ratio to assess a company’s relative worth in the market compared to its accounting value. Tesla currently has a book value of 14.03. Compare that to another mainstream stock like Apple, whose book value is 49.54, and Tesla suddenly looks cheap.
Furthermore, it is essential to remember that Wall Street is a discounting device. Over the past twelve years, Tesla has achieved a stunning compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 72%, earning its premium above slower-growing legacy automakers.
Rallying on Negative Recall News
Earlier this week, Tesla was forced to recall over two million vehicles over autopilot safety concerns. As I always like to remind investors, the reaction to negative news supersedes the news itself. In the case of TSLA, the stock shook off the bad news and is green for the week.
Technical “Shakeout” and Price Rotation Higher
Savvy investors understand that price movement is the ultimate arbiter of decisions, because after all, price is the only thing that pays. TSLA shares sliced below the 50-day moving average on the recall news and then ripped higher. Such price action indicates a shakeout, where weak hands get stopped out of their positions, clearing the way for the next move higher. Now, TSLA is triggering a bullish swing trade signal by clearing last week’s highs.
Cybertruck Hype Real
Many Tesla bears suggest that the hype around Tesla’s Cybertruck is unfounded. However, Google Trends data suggests the opposite is true. As Tesla investor and enthusiast Sawyer Merritt points out, “Tesla has surpassed Ford to become the most searched auto brand in the US. Tesla’s gone from not making the rankings at all in 2022 to second place in 2023, with 29 of 155 countries listing Tesla as their #1 car brand in Google Trends.”
Competition Not a Threat
Thus far, all of the fully-EV focused automakers like Rivian have yet to achieve a quarterly profit. As Elon Musk points out, it’s one thing to create a prototype and a whole other thing to manufacture at scale. Meanwhile, Ford, the only other profitable EV maker in the US, announced that it would cut F-150 Lightning production in half next year. (the Lightning is seen by the market as the biggest threat to the Cybertruck)
China Sales Growing Despite Weak Economy
Despite a floundering Chinese economy, recent registration numbers suggest that Tesla is on pace to break its quarterly record for deliveries in China (156.7k).
Exponential EV Growth is on the Horizon
A recent study suggests that by 2030, two-thirds of all global car sales will be EVs.
Bottom Line
Investors using traditional valuation metrics to value Tesla are likely to be wrong. Tesla’s price-to-book ratio reveals an undervalued position compared to other mainstream stocks. Meanwhile, the Cybertruck’s rising popularity and Tesla’s sustained growth in China further underscore its market strength. As the automotive landscape continues to evolve towards electric vehicles, Tesla’s innovative approach and global expansion prospects make it a must-own.
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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.
“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”
Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.
Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.
Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.
In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.
The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.
And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.
The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.
