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Toronto — Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) has allocated a staggering US$3 billion to settle ongoing criminal and civil investigations in the United States over alleged shortcomings in its anti-money laundering (AML) controls. This move has intensified speculation around the future leadership of the bank, as current CEO Bharat Masrani’s succession plan gains urgency.

National Bank Financial analyst Gabriel Dechaine noted that the bank’s U.S. regulatory challenges have accelerated the need for a clear succession plan. “Succession questions have become even more intense because of the bank’s U.S. regulatory issues,” Dechaine commented, pointing out that under typical circumstances, Masrani’s replacement process would already be in progress. Masrani, who has led the bank for a decade, is 67 years old, making the timing of a transition a critical focus.

TD’s latest financial provision includes setting aside US$2.6 billion in anticipation of fines related to the AML probe, adding to the US$450 million reserved in April. This significant financial hit has raised concerns about the bank’s leadership stability, especially as several top executives, once considered potential successors to Masrani, have departed.

Among those who left are Michael Rhodes, former head of TD’s personal banking business, and Teri Currie, his predecessor, both of whom were seen as strong candidates for the CEO position. Other notable exits include Katy Boshart, now the CEO of Manulife Bank, and Tim Hockey, who left TD Ameritrade in early 2020.

Riaz Ahmed, currently CEO of TD Securities and head of wholesale banking, remains a potential internal candidate for the CEO role. However, at 61, some analysts consider him a less likely choice compared to younger executives like Leo Salom, who currently leads TD’s U.S. retail operations. Salom’s role is considered pivotal, making a leadership transition potentially disruptive to the stability of the U.S. division.

Dechaine suggested that while the regulatory fine provision might “clear the deck” for CEO succession, it also opens the door for the possibility of an external candidate taking the helm. Despite the uncertainty, there is some optimism that the global settlement of the AML issues could trigger a “relief rally” among investors, who have been waiting for a resolution to the investigations that have weighed on TD’s performance for over a year.

However, TD faces additional challenges. The bank’s recent decision to sell shares in Charles Schwab Corp. to strengthen its capital position will impact earnings and reduce TD’s ownership in Schwab. Moreover, Dechaine warned of potential non-financial penalties, including the possibility of an asset cap on TD’s U.S. operations. Such restrictions could limit the bank’s growth, leading to sub-par earnings compared to its peers and a potential decline in its valuation.

In response to the ongoing scrutiny, Masrani emphasized TD’s commitment to addressing the deficiencies in its U.S. AML program. “We recognize the seriousness of our U.S. AML program deficiencies and the work required to meet our obligations and responsibilities is of paramount importance to me, our senior leaders, and our boards,” he stated.

As TD navigates these turbulent waters, the focus on leadership succession will only intensify, with both internal and external candidates likely being considered for the top job. How TD manages this transition, alongside resolving its regulatory challenges, will be crucial in determining its future direction and stability.