The noise before Game 4 was palpable for all four, and deservedly so after a no-show in Game 3. It was their third straight game without a goal, something that has literally never happened before.
Yes, they were creating chances and doing well defensively, but in the playoffs it’s execution over process. Time and time again this core has failed to execute at the worst times and Game 3 was looking like another chapter of the same story.
Sheldon Keefe was quick to defend his top players, saying they were the reason the team even made it this far. While he certainly had a point given their efforts in the first round, the reputation of the Core Four isn’t one made up out of thin air. The Core Four may be the reason the Leafs are an elite team year after year, but those results have also failed to transfer to the playoffs year after year. The three-game goal-less drought was merely an exclamation point to a five-year-long sentence.
Since 2018-19 the Core Four have averaged 5.5 goals per game every three games. Their dominance is fundamental to the Leafs success, but in the playoffs that number drops to 4.4 goals per game with significantly fewer stretches where the foursome takes over. In the regular season the Core Four scores six or more goals 46 percent of the time. In the playoffs that falls to 22 percent.
That’s their reputation: four players who wilt when it matters. It shows up on the scoresheet. It shows up in the data. It shows up when you watch. Collectively, the Core Four just don’t seem to have the “it factor” that so many other star players do.
But reputations can change. They aren’t written by those affected, but they can be rewritten with better performances. New evidence to the contrary of everything that preceded before it.
We started to see that in Round 1. Marner and Matthews dominated. Tavares scored the series-clinching goal. Nylander put up points. Reputations don’t change overnight, but it was a start. Those four were the difference.
Now, with their backs against the wall and the odds stacked against them those same four have a chance to continue rewriting their legacies. Game 4 was a big part of that. All four played extremely well in a must-win game — especially Marner who has rightfully faced the brunt of the blowback — but, again, it’s only the start. They still need to do it three more times.
The Core Four have the talent to do the unimaginable and come back from a 3-0 series deficit. Game 4 was a strong proof of concept of the defensive might and timely scoring that can get them there. Their odds of doing so climbed from nine percent to 20 percent in the process.
The stakes are sky-high — their reputations on the line due to their ineffective past. But they control their own destiny here with the power to alter the narrative and change their reputation. It’s time to deliver.
16 Stats
1. For the folks who don’t believe in playoff “it factor” and believe the Leafs core has just been dogged by really bad luck in small samples — especially in this series — here’s some ammo to that effect.
I mentioned the foursome’s goal rate over three-game stretches since 2018-19 above, but that doesn’t factor in the chances the quartet creates. There, the difference between regular season and playoffs is far less stark: they average five expected goals every three games during the season and 4.75 during the playoffs. The biggest difference is finishing where they score 0.45 more than expected during the season, but 0.38 less than expected during the playoffs.
As it pertains to the first three games of the Florida series, the Core Four collectively fired 7.1 expected goals on net, only the second time in their playoff career they’ve been above seven (the other being the previous three-game stretch). That’s a rarity even during the season, but when they do that they average 6.9 goals.
That they managed zero feels almost impossible and is by far their lowest goals scored below expected in a three-game stretch ever. Their previous worse was minus-5.3 in April and their previous playoff worst before the Florida series was minus-1.8 in the first three games against Columbus in 2020.
2. Ryan O’Reilly and Jake McCabe were the big trade deadline splashes, but it’s Luke Schenn who is surprisingly delivering the most value so far for Toronto among the newcomers.
Schenn only has a single point in 10 games, but putting up points isn’t in his job description. He’s there to be a calming, steady presence with an emphasis on defense and so far he’s well exceeded expectations. In these playoffs the Leafs have allowed just 2.1 expected goals against per 60 with Schenn on the ice and even fewer goals against at 0.7 per 60. The former is first among the team’s defenders and the latter is first on the team, period. In fact, Jaccob Slavin is the only defenseman still playing who has been on for fewer goals against per 60.
Slavin just so happens to be the only player whose Defensive Rating is higher than Schenn’s plus-1.8 during these playoffs. Schenn looked like a run-of-the-mill third-pairing option that the Leafs wouldn’t have much use for when he was acquired. Now? He’s become a truly indispensable shutdown defender in the top four, one who has helped fully unlock the potential of the team’s best defenseman, Morgan Rielly. They’ve been Toronto’s best pair and Schenn has been a big part of that.
3. No games featured more penalties per minute this year than Florida’s. The Panthers led the league with 4.3 penalties per 60 and 4.1 penalties drawn per 60. That’s 8.4 total penalties per 60 which would be double the amount being called in Florida’s second-round series against Toronto.
That drop-off is unusual enough, but what makes the difference even more striking is that at the current rate of calls, the series is on track to be the least penalized series since Chicago and Minnesota in 2015 where 3.8 penalties per 60 were called. It would also be the second-least penalized, period, since at least 2008. In all, it would only be the sixth time a series had fewer than 4.5 penalties per 60. The playoff average over the time frame is 8.2 and 7.6 over the last five seasons.
Florida is an excellent five-on-five team, but part of the reason the Panthers were a wild-card team was that so many of their games were being played on special teams. That’s where Florida struggles in comparison, ranking 15th in power-play goals per 60 and 22nd in power-play goals against per 60. The Leafs, in contrast, were top five in both.
A “clean” series is a big advantage for Florida and while the Panthers are in the driver’s seat up 3-1, keeping it clean is imperative to closing the series out.
4. Meanwhile in Edmonton it’s the complete opposite with 12 penalties per 60 which would be the highest since 2016 and ninth highest since 2008. In an era where fewer and fewer penalties are being called in the playoffs, that’s practically unheard of — although it’s not far off from last year’s second-round date between Edmonton and Calgary.
As Calgary learned last year, that’s a dangerous game for Vegas to play, especially if the Oilers can figure things out at five-on-five the way they did in Game 4 to tie the series. Going into the game, that was Vegas’ only advantage, as the special teams battle was decisively in Edmonton’s favour. With the man advantage the Oilers have terrorized the Golden Knights, scoring 15.1 goals per 60. Vegas, in contrast, has only mustered 2.3. That’s a huge mismatch and if the penalty rate stays high it’s hard not to like the Oilers to pull through.
5. This isn’t the best Sergei Bobrovsky has ever looked, but it’s certainly up there. Through four games Bobrovsky has already saved 6.7 goals above expected which ranks as the 13th-best four-game segment of his career out of 699 distinct segments.
Interestingly enough, two of his better segments actually came earlier this season while the Panthers were fighting for their playoff lives. Right after the All-Star break Bobrovsky had a four-game stretch where he saved 8.2 goals above expected and two weeks later he added another where he saved 7.7.
When he’s on he’s on, but since signing with Florida it’s been a question of consistency. He’s the biggest reason the team is currently up 3-1, but it’ll be interesting to see if he can keep it up to finish off the Leafs. Following a strong four-game segment (one goal saved per game or higher) Bobrovsky averages minus-0.26 goals allowed above expected over his next four since joining the Panthers.
6. Aaron Ekblad’s expected goals against per 60 during the regular was 3.1, worst among the team’s defensemen. His actual goals against per 60 was also 3.1 and also worst on the team. It was a rough defensive season that called into question whether he was still an elite No. 1 option (and whether MacKenzie Weegar deserved a lot more credit than he got over the last few years).
During the playoffs he’s put those questions to rest by being the rock Florida expects him to be. His 1.1 goals against per 60 is lowest on the team while his 2.4 expected goals against ranks second lowest. Both are marked improvements and he’s done that while seeing a steady dose of both Boston’s and Toronto’s top lines. Impressive.
7. Yes, Leon Draisaitl has a lot of goals in these playoffs and has the highest Offensive Rating of any player for that reason. But the highest Net Rating? That actually belongs to the aforementioned Jaccob Slavin. He may only have five points in 10 games, but no player has a larger 200-foot impact than Slavin who has been Carolina’s rock this postseason. With Slavin on the ice, the Hurricanes have earned 64 percent of the expected goals while outscoring teams 13-2 at five-on-five. The Hurricanes generate the second-most chances with him on the ice and allow the fourth-fewest goals against. In 27 short-handed minutes, the Hurricanes have outscored teams 2-1 with Slavin on the ice.
Slavin may not be the flashiest player, but his value to Carolina is immense. He’s the team’s MVP so far as the Hurricanes sit one win away from an appearance in the final four.
In 48 minutes the Hurricanes have scored 3.8 goals per 60 with Aho on the ice in the second round, but without him they’ve scored 4.7 goals per 60 in 151 minutes. That’s night and day from Round 1. Thank Jordan Martinook for that first and foremost — he somehow has nine points against New Jersey with six coming at even strength.
9. One of New Jersey’s biggest issues in these playoffs has been its power play. A team with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier and Dougie Hamilton should not be this bad with the man advantage. To wit, they’ve scored just 4.3 goals per 60 on the power play in these playoffs which ranks 14th and have only generated 6.9 expected goals per 60 which ranks 12th.
Part of that obviously stems from who they’re facing — consistently one of the best penalty-killing teams in the league — and the Hurricanes in particular seem to have the Devils’ number in that regard. In four games this series Carolina has a 2-1 goal edge while penalty killing, adding to the 4-0 edge the Hurricanes had during the regular season. That’s a 6-1 scoreline for Carolina while down a man in just 42 minutes.
That means that while down a man the Hurricanes have scored 8.6 goals per 60 against the Devils while allowing just 1.4 against. The former would rank better than all but six power plays this season — including both Carolina’s and New Jersey’s. The latter is lower than Boston’s league-leading 1.8 goals against per 60 at five-on-five.
10.Seattle didn’t win Game 4, but getting Jared McCann back is a big deal — even if the team’s leading scorer is one of just two players without a goal for the team.
In the meantime, it’s been nice getting to know Tye Kartye, who has been a playoff revelation for the team. At five-on-five he’s scored 2.32 points per 60 but most importantly has dominated the competition, leading the Kraken with 60 percent of the expected goals and 76 percent of the actual goals. It’s Peak Kraken that the team’s literal next man up is the player leading the charge at tilting the ice. Seattle’s strength all season has been its depth and Kartye is further proof of that.
11. Depth is the name of the game for Seattle and that’s especially evident when the team’s third pair is on the ice. The team’s top two pairs are collectively below breakeven in expected and actual goals, but the third pair has helped pick up the slack. With Justin Schultz and Carson Soucy on the ice the Kraken have earned 55 percent of the expected goals but more importantly have outscored the opposition 9-3.
It’s been an especially strong playoff run for Schultz, who has turned back the clock to 2017 and sits tied for third in playoff scoring among all defensemen with nine points in 11 games. Three of those points have come on the man advantage where he’s taken over as the No. 1 option on the top unit.
The power play has been a major sore spot for the Kraken in these playoffs and that’s mostly due to the major differences in performance between the first and second units. With Schultz on the ice, Seattle has scored 9.2 goals per 60 and has earned 6.1 expected goals per 60. With Vince Dunn on the ice, the team has zero goals and just 3.5 expected goals per 60.
12. We talk a lot about the importance of star power and “oomph per 60” when it comes to the playoffs. Championship teams are built upon championship-caliber players and it’s part of the reason the Stars were touted as a dark horse going into the playoffs. Miro Heiskanen? Jason Robertson? Roope Hintz? Jake Oettinger? That’s a damn good core with an elite player at each position.
Going into the playoffs here’s where that top four rated compared to what other teams had at each position (ie: one center, winger, defenseman and goalie) in terms of Net Rating.
13. Except — those four aren’t exactly the reason the Stars are two wins away from the conference final. Hintz has been fantastic, yes, but the other three have been mostly ordinary relative to their usual standards of greatness. Good — not great.
Heiskanen’s projected Net Rating was plus-17, but he’s pacing at plus-6 through 10 games. That’s thanks mostly to only earning 47 percent of the expected goals in these playoffs. Robertson’s projected Net Rating was plus-20, but he’s pacing at plus-8. Two goals and eight points in 10 games is well below his standard and while he has been on the right side of the puck, the results haven’t been there. Just one of his points has been at five-on-five — a lone secondary assist. And while Oettinger has had marvellous moments, on the whole he only has a .902 while allowing 0.6 goals above expected. Over 82 games he was projected to save 11.
Three Dallas superstars all capable of more are delivering 11 to 12 goals of value less than expected over a full season. That’s the bad news. The good news is the team’s depth has stepped up in the meantime, answering the biggest question mark plaguing the Stars going into the postseason. If the big guns can live up to their enormous expectations while the depth keeps it up, the Stars would be in a fantastic position to end a 24-year Stanley Cup drought.
14. The playoffs are generally known to be an environment where space is limited, checking is tighter and goals are harder to come by. That checks out from 2008 to 2021 where teams collectively averaged 5.56 goals per game in the regular season only to see that drop to 5.41 goals per game during the playoffs.
During those 14 seasons, there were only four years where scoring increased in the playoffs: 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2018. The three-year run immediately after the 2018 playoffs was especially sludge-filled, representing three of the four largest drop-offs since 2018. From 2019 to 2021 the league averaged 5.91 goals per game during the regular season, but only 5.52 during the playoffs.
All that has changed since though, especially in these playoffs so far as the scoring renaissance has only continued. Last year the league averaged 6.21 goals per game during the season and saw it jump up to 6.31 during the playoffs. This year the jump has been even bigger: 6.29 in the season to 6.48 during the playoffs.
The age of offense is here.
15. We haven’t seen 6.48 goals per game since the early ’90s when some would argue the league was at its peak. More offense generally means more excitement, but in these playoffs there’s been an unwanted side effect of more goals: more blowouts. Of the 66 games played so far only 25 have been decided by one goal (38 percent) while 19 have been decided by four or more (29 percent). That’s just one off last year’s total which was the highest since 2008.
16. The rise of blowout games isn’t exactly a new phenomenon, it’s one that started in 2017-18 when league-wide offense began to rise. Prior to that, 51 percent of playoff games were decided by one goal and just 11 percent by four or more. From 2018 to 2022, though, one-goal game rates have dropped to 42 percent with blowout games rising to 18 percent.
This year’s rate of 30 percent may be an anomaly as the highest in the analytics era — nearly triple the previous norm — but it looks to be part of a trend as scoring increases. Better start getting used to the new normal.
LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.
“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”
Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.
The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.
Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.
“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”
Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.
“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”
The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.
“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”
Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.
“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.
Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.
The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.
The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.
Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.
Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
Inter Milan winger Tajon Buchanan, recovered from a broken leg suffered in training at this summer’s Copa America, is back in Jesse Marsch’s Canada squad for the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal against Suriname.
The 25-year-old from Brampton, Ont., underwent surgery July 3 to repair a fractured tibia in Texas.
Canada, ranked 35th in the world, plays No. 136 Suriname on Nov. 15 in Paramaribo. The second leg of the aggregate series is four days later at Toronto’s BMO Field.
There is also a return for veteran winger Junior Hoilett, who last played for Canada in June in a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s debut at the Canadian helm. The 34-year-old from Brampton, now with Scotland’s Hibernian, has 15 goals in 63 senior appearances for Canada.
Midfielder Ismael Kone, recovered from an ankle injury sustained on club duty with France’s Marseille, also returns. He missed Canada’s last three matches since the fourth-place Copa America loss to Uruguay in July.
But Canada will be without centre back Derek Cornelius, who exited Marseille’s win Sunday over Nantes on a stretcher after suffering an apparent rib injury.
The Canadian men will prepare for Suriname next week at a camp in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
“We are looking forward to getting the group together again with the mindset that there is a trophy on the line,” Marsch said in a statement. “We want to end 2024 the right way with two excellent performances against a competitive Suriname squad and continue building on our tremendous growth this past summer.”
The quarterfinal winners advance to the Nations League Finals at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., with the two semifinals scheduled for March 20 and the final and third-place playoff March 23, and qualify for the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Thirteen of the 23 players on the Canadian roster are 25 or younger, with 19-year-old defender Jamie Knight-Lebel, currently playing for England’s Crewe Alexandra on loan from Bristol City, the youngest.
Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies captains the side with Stephen Eustaquio, Jonathan Osorio, Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston and Kamal Miller adding veteran support.
Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Theo Bair are joined in attack by Minnesota United’s Tani Oluwaseyi.
Niko Sigur, a 21-year-old midfielder with Croatia’s Hadjuk Split, continues in the squad after making his debut in the September friendly against Mexico.
Suriname made it to the Nations League quarterfinals by finishing second to Costa Rica in Group A of the Nations League, ahead of No. 104 Guatemala, No. 161 Guyana and unranked Martinique and Guadeloupe.
“A good team,” Osorio said of Suriname. “These games are always tricky and they’re not easy at all … Suriname is a (former) Dutch colony and they’ll have Dutch players playing at high levels.”
“They won’t be someone we overlook at all,” added the Toronto FC captain, who has 81 Canada caps to his credit.
Located on the northeast coast of South America between Guyana and French Guiana, Suriname was granted independence in 1975 by the Netherlands.
Canada has faced Suriname twice before, both in World Cup qualifying play, winning 4-0 in suburban Chicago in June 2021 and 2-1 in Mexico City in October 1977.
The Canadian men, along with Mexico, the United States and Panama, received a bye into the final eight of the CONCACAF Nations League.
Canada, No. 2 in the CONCACAF rankings, drew Suriname as the best-placed runner-up from League A play.
Canada lost to Jamaica in last year’s Nations League quarterfinal, ousted on the away-goals rule after the series ended in a 4-4 draw. The Canadians lost 2-0 to the U.S. in the final of the 2022-23 tournament and finished fifth in 2019-20.
Canada defeated Panama 2-1 last time out, in an Oct. 15 friendly in Toronto.
Goalkeepers Maxime Crepeau and Jonathan Sirois, defenders Joel Waterman, Laryea and Miller and Osorio took part in a pre-camp this week in Toronto for North America-based players.
Canada Roster
Goalkeepers: Maxime Crepeau, Portland Timbers (MLS); Jonathan Sirois, CF Montreal (MLS); Dayne St. Clair, Minnesota United FC (MLS).
Defenders: Moise Bombito, OGC Nice (France); Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich (Germany); Richie Laryea, Toronto FC (MLS); Alistair Johnston, Celtic (Scotland); Jamie Knight-Lebel. Crewe Alexandra, on loan from Bristol City (England); Kamal Miller, Portland Timbers (MLS); Joel Waterman, CF Montreal (MLS).
Midfielders: Ali Ahmed. Vancouver Whitecaps (MLS); Tajon Buchanan, Inter Milan (Italy); Mathieu Choiniere, Grasshopper Zurich (Switzerland); Stephen Eustaquio, FC Porto (Portugal); Junior Hoilett, Hibernian FC (Scotland); Ismael Kone, Olympique Marseille (France); Jonathan Osorio, Toronto FC (MLS); Jacob Shaffelburg, Nashville SC (MLS); Niko Sigur, Hadjuk Split (Croatia).
Forwards: Theo Bair, AJ Auxerre (France); Jonathan David, LOSC Lille (France); Cyle Larin, RCD Mallorca (Spain); Tani Oluwaseyi, Minnesota United (MLS).
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
