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17 Real Estate Forecasts That Have Tried to Predict the Impact of COVID – Toronto Storeys

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This weekend will mark two months since a state of emergency was first declared in Ontario.


Millions of jobs have been lost, tens of thousands of businesses have been affected, and thousands of people have died. And throughout all of it the lockdown measures, the daily updates, and the terrifying economic realities it seems everyone in the real estate industry has taken a shot at summing up both the current and coming housing climate. (Yes, we were not immune either.)

So, in an attempt to help you keep up with the dizzying level of real estate decrees that have been released in the last dozen or so weeks, we’ve compiled a timeline of forecasts, prognostications, pontifications, prophecies, exaggerations, and conjectures so you can form your own opinion of who’s looking at the present in the right light, and who’s best positioned to accurately predict the future.

Forecasts

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RBC April 1

Headline: Home Sales in Canada Could Drop as Much as 30% This Year: RBC

Summary: Canada’s housing market could see a 30% decline in home resales this year, hitting a 20-year low of 350,000 units due to both physical distancing restrictions and economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus outbreak.

Quotable: “We think the recovery will come in stages—taking buyers up to a year to regroup and rebuild confidence amid high unemployment.”

Read: The Full Article

RBC April 6

Headline: Experts Say “Low Risk” of Housing Market Collapse: RBC Report

Summary: While RBC economist Robert Hogue expects housing price support to wear down in the weeks ahead, RBC sees a “low risk” of a market collapse – at this point.

Quotable: “We believe the extraordinary policy response from all levels of government and the Bank of Canada, as well as accommodating measures offered by financial institutions, will soften the blow.”

Read: The Full Article

RE/MAX April 7

Headline: RE/MAX: Odds of Coronavirus-Related Housing Market Collapse are Low

Summary: “To burst, or for a real estate market collapse to take place, there would need to be a stagnant demand, with an influx of supply, leading to a sharp drop in prices.” And RE/MAX doesn’t think that’s very likely in the country’s hottest markets.

Quotable: “What is more likely to happen, as a result of this public health crisis, is more of a levelling off, rather than significant dips. The prices have been climbing at such a steep, unsustainable rate, that they were bound to be reined in at some point. However, with levels of housing inventory so low in so many of the country’s hottest markets, it’s unlikely that any price change will be jaw-dropping, or even noteworthy.”

Read: The Full Article

Royal LePage April 14

Headline: Royal LePage Releases Canadian Market Survey Forecast

Summary: If the measures currently in place across the country are lifted before the end of the second quarter, Royal LePage is forecasting that overall prices for Canadian homes will end 2020 relatively flat. If, however, COVID-19 restrictions remain in effect throughout the summer, this could drive home prices down by 3% year-over-year to $627,900.

Quotable: “From our experience with past recessions and real estate downturns, we are not expecting significant year-over-year price changes in 2020. Home price declines occur when the market experiences sustained low sales volume while inventory builds. Currently, the inventory of homes for sale in this country is very low, matching low sales volumes as people respect government mandates to stay at home.”

Read: The Full Article

Capital Economics April 20

Headline: Canadian Home Prices Could Drop as Much as 5% Due to Coronavirus

Summary: Despite the hot start to spring, COVID-19 disruptions are set to decrease prices in the coming months.

Quotable: “Capital Economics is “pencilling in a relatively modest fall” in house prices of 5% in the coming few months.”

Read: The Full Article

Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index (HPI) – April 21

Headline: Canadian Home Prices Expected to Lose Momentum

Summary: Teranet says it expects prices are going to start to cool after real estate boards reported a “clear break” in activity during the second half of March due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Quotable: “The loss of momentum is expected to be most prevalent in the metropolitan markets located in central and eastern Canada and in cities like Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, and Halifax.”

Read: The full article.

TD – April 29

Headline: TD Now Forecasting Toronto Home Prices to Increase By 7.8% in 2020

Summary: In light of the pandemic, TD economists expect home sales in Canada will remain below their pre-COVID-19 levels for the rest of 2020, with the numbers of transactions expected to plunge in April before gradually recovering in the months to come as the country reopens and social distancing measures ease and workers return to their jobs.

Quotable: “TD said its forecasts are subject to an “extremely high degree of uncertainty.”

Read: The full article.

CIBC – May 4

Headline: CIBC Forecasting Canadian Home Prices to Drop 5-10% Relative to 2019 Levels

Summary: CIBC economists Benjamin Tal and Katherine Judge suggests that the effects of COVID-19 on Canadian home prices won’t be fully felt until 2021, but that they will drop between 5-10%.

Quotable: “Overall, as the fog clears, we expect to see average prices 5-10% lower relative to 2019 levels, with high-cost units in the high-rise segment of the market seeing the most notable price declines.”

Read: The full article.

Altus Group – May 5

Headline: Housing Sector in Canada Expected to Rebound By End of 2020: Altus Group

Summary: Peter Norman, Vice President and Chief Economist at Altus Group, acknowledges that the second and third quarters of 2020 are going to be “disaster zones” for the housing market, but believes that as safety measures begin to lift in the months to come and consumers return to spending and investing as they usually would, he expects to see sectors to start come back very quickly – including housing.

Quotable: “We shouldn’t “underestimate how fast things come back.”

Read: The full article.

DBRS Morningstar – May 8

Headline: Home Prices in Toronto Could Drop More Than 14% By 2023

Summary: Regardless of the various income support programs from the federal government and mortgage deferral options from the banks, the rise in unemployment could lead to the inevitably of more households falling behind and potentially defaulting on mortgage payments, which could, in turn, lead to home prices falling in the coming years.

Quotable: “In the moderate scenario, mortgage arrears nationwide increase to approximately 65 basis points in 2020 and then gradually decline, while home prices fall by 10% cumulatively through 2022. The adverse scenario features mortgage arrears rising to 100 basis points and a 15% correction in housing prices by 2022.”

Read: The full article.

Home Prices and Sales Updates

MPAC toronto home sales
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Zoocasa April 1

Headline: Coronavirus Has Pushed the GTA into a Balanced Housing Market

Summary: When the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR), which is described as “a measure of market competition calculated by dividing the number of sales by the number of new listings”, is between 40%-60% it indicates a balanced market, anything above and below that threshold reveals sellers’ and buyers’ markets, respectively.

Quotable: “The numbers recorded in March demonstrate there has been a noticeable shift in market conditions in a very short period of time.”

Read: The Full Article

CREA – April 15

Headline: Home Sales in the GTA Down Over 20% Month-Over-Month in March

Summary: According to CREA, home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems dropped by 14.3% in March 2020 compared to February. The GTA was one of the hardest-hit markets, seeing a 20.8% decline.

Quotable: “Canadian home sales and listings were increasing heading into what was expected to be a busy spring for Canadian REALTORS®,” said Jason Stephen, president of CREA. “After Friday the 13th, everything went sideways.”

Read: The full article.

Rental Market Insights

St. Lawrence Neighbourhood

Padmapper April 15

Our Headline: Average Rent for Toronto 1-Bedroom Stays Highest in Canada

Summary: The average price to rent a 1-bedroom apartment in Toronto remains the highest in Canada, despite the disrupting presence of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Quotable: “With the strict social distancing measures currently in place and more residents without work as a result of the pandemic, a decline in rental market activity is to be expected.”

Read: The full article.

Urbanation April 20

Our Headline: Toronto Renters Could See Some Relief in the Post-COVID Market

Summary: The outlook for rents will largely depend on the severity and duration of the economic downturn — which remains highly uncertain at this point — and the resulting impact the pandemic has on vacancies.

Quotable: “As rental demand declines as job losses mount, incomes are reduced, and immigration shrinks, the slowing in the GTA rental market that appeared in the last half of March will progress for at least the next few quarters given the current economic outlook. The impact on rents will be something to watch, which will also be influenced by the timing of the record number of units that were expected to complete this year.”

Read: The full article.

TRREB May 7

Our Headline: Average Rent for Toronto 1-Bedroom Drops Nearly 3% in April Year-Over-Year

Summary: The average rent for a 1-bedroom reached $2,107, down 2.7% compared to April 2019. The average two-bedroom rent was ‘just’ $2,705, down 4.1% during the same time period year-over-year.

Quotable: “With the strict social distancing measures currently in place and more residents without work as a result of the pandemic, a decline in rental market activity is to be expected.”

Read: The full article.

Rentals.ca May 8

Our Headline: Apartment Rents in Canada Could Drop Following Pandemic: Report

Summary: As a result of COVID-19, Canada is seeing less immigration, fewer international students, and with the border now closed, there won’t be nearly as many seasonal and part-time workers, who are all typically renters. This coupled with Rentals.ca’s prediction that some short-term rentals convert to long-term rentals, could lead to rents declining.

Quotable: “Renters who put off moving when the pandemic hit are now starting to resume their apartment search in the hopes that Canada’s lockdown will end in the coming weeks.”

Read: The full article.

Rentals.ca May 13

Our Headline: Average Rent for 1-Bedroom Apartment in Toronto Drops 6% Year-Over-Year: Report

Summary: At the beginning of the COVID-19 lockdown, there wasn’t a noticeable decline in rental rates for condominium and rental apartments… however, that changed dramatically in April as landlords responded to this lower-demand market by adjusting their asking rents.

Quotable: “With the gradual opening of the economy, this may be the low point for rental rates in some time if tenants feel comfortable enough to move.’

Read: The full article.

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PC Urban, KingSett acquire Richmond industrial property – Real Estate News EXchange

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The Viking Way Business Centre has been acquired by PC Urban and KingSett Capital. The firms plan to redevelop the 9.7-acre property. (Courtesy PC Urban/Kingsett)

PC Urban Properties and KingSett Capital have partnered to purchase the multi-building light industrial Viking Way Business Centre in Richmond, B.C.

In an announcement Monday, the companies said current buildings on the 9.7-acre property, which include 160,000 square feet of leasable space, are 100 per cent occupied. PC Urban and KingSett plan to announce redevelopment and repositioning plans for the property this fall.

“This is our largest acquisition to date and it’s a well-positioned, well-known industrial property in a desired sub-market of Richmond where there is currently less than one per cent vacancy,” said Brent Sawchyn, CEO of PC Urban Properties, in the release. “For us, this acquisition is a natural progression of our growth and we are excited to be working with KingSett on reimagining and repositioning this property.”

Financial details have not been disclosed.

The property is located in Crestwood, the largest and most active sub-market in Richmond for industrial properties. The new owners say Viking Way Business Centre boasts a highly functional design, extensive frontage, an attractive look and design, and offers proximity to highways and transit.

Viking Way Business Centre

The single-storey, small-bay buildings are home to numerous light industrial businesses in biotech, electronics, aerospace, building products distribution, media, technology, textile and service businesses.

Demand for Viking Way Business Centre remains strong due to the park’s maintenance and appearance, along with its mix of unit sizes and dock/grade loading options.

“This partnership was attractive to us for a number of reasons,” said Andrew Kirkham, the Western Canada vice-president for KingSett Capital.

“Working with PC Urban Properties allows us to leverage local area knowledge and they have a strong track record for redeveloping industrial assets across Western Canada.”

Market rents have grown rapidly in North Richmond during the past three years, with strong demand for light industrial space, extremely limited options for tenants and a competitive atmosphere that includes multiple offers for most available spaces.

The average net rental rate in North Richmond increased more than 40 per cent from 2017 to 2019.

South Richmond has lagged behind due to the delayed George Massey Tunnel replacement and associated highway congestion. With no relief in sight for businesses located in South Richmond, PC Urban and KingSett believe demand will further increase for space in North Richmond.

PC Urban, KingSett partnership

IMAGE: Aerial view of the Viking Way Business Centre in Richmond, B.C. (Google Maps)

Aerial view of the Viking Way Business Centre in Richmond, B.C. (Google Maps)

In creating their partnership, PC Urban and KingSett are part of an emerging trend in the Metro Vancouver region, where local developers partner with institutional investors.

As noted in the CBRE 2020 Canada Market Outlook report, strong commercial real estate fundamentals attracted more investment capital to Vancouver in Q1 of 2020. CBRE is projecting that institutional investors, including Blackstone, Crestpoint and KingSett, will increasingly partner with local firms to gain a foothold in the market.

“Investors are still drawn to Vancouver in a big way and we’re seeing a growing number of institutional investors partnering with local operators in Vancouver,” said CBRE Vancouver managing director Jason Kiselbach, in the release.

“They’re looking at our fundamental lease rates and growth and buying as much as they can in office, industrial and multifamily, driving further construction of new projects.”

RELATED ARTICLES

* PC Urban moves into multiresidential development

* PC Urban to build office, commercial strata in Kelowna

* PC Urban launches new IntraUrban build, mulls spinoff firm

* Starlight, KingSett bid $4.8B for Northview Apt. REIT

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Oakville Real Estate Holding Its Own Amidst COVID-19 – RE/MAX News

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Oakville real estate is continuing to attract buyers, despite COVID-19. The housing market in Oakville started 2020 strong, as was the case in many housing markets across Canada. Balanced market conditions and an average price of five per cent were the expectation by year’s end, according to the RE/MAX 2020 Housing market Outlook Report. A few months into the year, the global pandemic sent many industries into a tailspin, however Oakville real estate values did not decline due to the public health crisis. If current conditions continue, Oakville housing prices are expected to hold steady.

This is in stark contrast to a recent prediction from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., warning that housing prices in Canada could drop between nine and 18 per cent over the next year. However, based on reports from RE/MAX brokers in many of Canada’s largest housing markets, consumer inquiries are on the upswing, inventory is low and the demand for homes is there. Here’s a closer look at Oakville real estate activity over the past few months, and some insight as to what may lie ahead.

FEBRUARY 2020

According to market data from the Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board (OMDREB), February 2020 saw a dramatic spike in sales activity year over year, with a total of 639 home sales compared to just 485 transactions in February 2019. Properties hitting the market also saw a significant increase, with 925 new listings in February 2020 compared to 847 in 2019.

By all accounts, Milton and Oakville real estate was primed for a busy spring market. Homebuyers emerged earlier than usual with strong sales activity, with luxury infill and detached homes sales in Oakville leading the charge in the $1M+ to $2.5M sale price range, according to OMDREB.

MARCH 2020

Despite the social distancing mandates and business closures that took effect on March 13, March 2020 actually reported an increase in transactions across Oakville and Milton. OMDREB reported 670 home sales in the region, compared to March 2019 when 650 sales were recorded. The month experienced a slight decline in the number of properties for sale, with 1,118 new listings in March 2020 compared to 1,220 in March 2019.

APRIL 2020

April marked the first month that the impact of the global pandemic was truly felt in local housing markets across Canada, and Oakville real estate followed suit.

OMDREB reported a dramatic dip in transactions in April 2020, with 289 homes sold across the region, compared to 761 home sales in April 2019. The number of new homes hitting the market also took a hit, with 559 new listings in April 2020 compared to 1,347 in April 2019.

“With social distancing measures still in place for the foreseeable future, we can expect the coming months to see a decline in home sales and listings compared to last year as well. However, while sales activity has seen a significant drop, the numbers also show us that real estate has not experienced a total shut down. Ultimately, some areas along with certain home types have been more impacted than others,” said OMDREB President Richard Weima.

What’s in store for Oakville real estate?

The Oakville real estate market has been surprisingly active during the pandemic. With the exception of the first two weeks of the lockdown – the second half of March – there has been a steady pace of buyers and sellers active in the housing market, according to Oakville-based RE/MAX Aboutowne Realty Corp. In the past few weeks, the brokerage reports a steady increase in call volume, appointments booked, and units sold.

And contrary to some widespread predictions, Oakville real estate prices did not adjust down based on the pandemic. In fact, the average home price increased 9.76 per cent year-over-year, reaching $1,251,124 in April 2020, compared to April 2019, when the average price was $1,129,093.

Some multiple-offer scenarios continue, with some properties selling for over asking. Based on these factors, RE/MAX expects that Oakville real estate will continue to be in high demand.

Luxury real estate in Oakville

The luxury housing market in Oakville starts at around $3 million. This property segment did experience some slight softening over the last 60 days, which is tied to COVID-19. These buyers may be temporarily sitting on the sidelines as the economy gradually returns to activity.

A return to “the new normal”

Are Canadians ready to return to some semblance of normalcy? According to a weekly consumer survey by Leger published on May 20, 60 per cent of Canadians think their provincial government should maintain the pace at which it is relaxing social distancing/self-isolation measures. Furthermore, 53 per cent of Canadians are afraid of contracting COVID-19; however, this proportion continues to trend downward.

Here in Ontario, while social distancing measures continue to be in effect, some businesses have been allowed to re-open their doors in an effort to reignite the local economy. They will join many businesses including real estate offices, which were classified as an essential service and continued to operate under strict guidelines throughout the pandemic. The economic, employment and general comfort level will continue to impact home-buying and selling decisions. Click here to find out what Canadian real estate might look like in the coming weeks and months.

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Asset management: Pandemic forces major changes – Real Estate News EXchange

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Bill Logar, KingSett Capital executive vice-president of asset management. (Courtesy KingSett)

Shutdowns imposed to curtail the spread of COVID-19 have changed the way real estate assets have been managed over the past two months, a trend which will continue as more people return to work.

Cushman & Wakefield executive managing director of asset services Molly Westbrook moderated a three-person panel discussion in a recent Real Estate Forums webinar exploring some of the issues property managers have been dealing with.

Topics included: differences between the four major asset classes; rent collection; technology and innovation; and what to expect in the future.

Retail has been the poorest-performing of the four major real estate asset classes for the past few years and it’s also been the hardest hit by the pandemic.

KingSett Capital executive vice-president of asset management Bill Logar believes some retailers may have to recreate themselves. He thinks the asset class will take longer to recover than others and it will be slightly different in the future.

“The poorly located and merchandised retail is going to suffer a lot,” said Crestpoint Real Estate Investment Ltd. vice-president of acquisitions and asset management Max Rosenfeld. “I think good retail’s going to continue to be strong.

“It’s not going to be a pretty next 12 to 24 months, but if you’ve got a good building in a good location, that retail’s going to be more valuable on the other side of this.”

Panelists agreed the industrial and multifamily asset classes have largely held their ground.

“I think the most uncertain asset class is office,” said Fiera Real Estate senior vice-president of investment operations Peter McFarlane. “There aren’t many people in office buildings (right now) and the future of office remains uncertain, given that we’ve all got used to not being in our offices.”

Rent collection

Fiera manages about 1,230 commercial tenants and 800 residential tenants at its properties, according to McFarlane. The company approved 177 two-month commercial deferrals, to buy time to figure out more about the crisis.

“Now we’re at a point where we’re all thinking about going back to work, but no one knows the duration of this event,” said McFarlane.

“In our minds, it doesn’t make sense to keep negotiating new agreements every month for an undetermined period of time. We have a duty to collect rents.”

More rent payments were collected from industrial and office properties than retail locations, where Fiera’s April collections were more than 70 per cent.

“A lot of our retail portfolio is open-air and that’s certainly faring better than the enclosed malls,” said McFarlane.

Fiera had almost no residential rent deferral requests and had collected 98 per cent of rents for both April and May. McFarlane expects that number to decrease the longer the crisis lasts if it eats further into people’s savings.

Logar said KingSett received just 30 rent deferral requests from its approximately 3,400 multiresidential units.

The company gave three-month deferrals to non-essential retailers forced to close by government order in March.

“In the office and industrial worlds, people have been resilient,” said Logar. “Rent collections have been pretty solid.”

Technology and innovation

While the real estate industry has been introduced to plenty of property technology over the past couple of years, the COVID-19 experience is accelerating the process.

Logar said his company will be evaluating technology uses while also looking at cyber-security risks to try to establish protocols.

With almost entire office workforces doing their jobs from home these days, Logar said companies have made increased use of communications tools including Skype, Zoom and Teams to keep in touch.

“There’s a list of a bunch of physical technologies that we’re looking at now, that we wouldn’t have been looking at three months ago in the same sort of serious way,” said McFarlane.

He cited innovations including touchless door openers, remote keys for doors and elevators, more effective filters for heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, temperature-reading cameras and remote mailboxes with cameras.

“Something that has been gaining momentum is technology revolving around monitoring of HVAC, elevators, water consumption and those types of things,” said Rosenfeld.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of emphasis on things that promote security, safety and health as opposed to comfort.”

Asset management in the future

Logar expects to see: restaurants reducing capacities; more curbside pick-ups of goods at shopping centres; changing manufacturing processes; more virtual building tours; and an increased use of online lease applications.

McFarlane said security and hygiene protocols will be enhanced and more people will be encouraged to work from home if they’re sick. Office layouts will also likely change to increase distances between desks.

“It will take a lot of careful and creative design in order to ensure that, if you’re going to make those changes, you don’t do them at the expense of making the office feel like a place that people will want to be,” said Rosenfeld.

Logar believes people are less productive working from home and the lack of face-to-face interaction reduces spontaneity and creativity.

On the other hand, he thinks the experience and knowledge gained from recent events could mean the home replaces suburban backup offices for large companies headquartered in downtown towers.

People have also become used to not wearing business attire from home, and Rosenfeld said more casual dress could become more acceptable for office workers.

Online shopping and deliveries will continue to grow, according to McFarlane.

“Once you get someone hooked who sees how easy it can be, that’s a very sticky customer base and you’ve just pushed a bunch of people further along that online ordering path.

“It may have taken five or 10 years to get there anyways, but now it’s been condensed into a couple of months.”

Embrace change, be ready to adapt

IMAGE: Max Rosenfeld, Crestpoint Real Estate Investment Ltd. vice-president of acquisitions and asset management. (Courtesy Crestpoint)

Max Rosenfeld, Crestpoint Real Estate Investment Ltd. vice-president of acquisitions and asset management. (Courtesy Crestpoint)

Businesses will need to become more open to change, according to Rosenfeld. He’s also unsure if distinctions between real estate asset classes will be as relevant in the future, especially with retail rents expected to flatten or go down and industrial rents anticipated to keep rising.

“I think you’ll get a bit more parity between rents and gross occupancy costs,” said Rosenfeld. “It becomes more about flexibility and how people are using space.”

Office employees will dictate when they want to return and what their workplaces should look like, according to Rosenfeld.

“I think our job as landlords is to make sure we’re listening and that we’re taking in opinions from across our portfolio and from outside our portfolio and from outside of Canada, and trying to incorporate best practices in a way where we are balancing, from a cost perspective, the landlord versus tenant needs.

“Real estate has very much become a recruiting tool for companies. It’s not just a place to have a meeting because you need to have a meeting. It’s a place that you advertise as part of your culture and that enables you to hire talent and bring talent on board.

“I think the talent is going to dictate what the space requirements are in the future and what people want to see. Our job is to be flexible and quick to respond to that.”

With more store closures expected, Rosenfeld thinks people will find new ways to utilize the spaces. He believes it may benefit the arts and artists who, previously, have been pushed to the periphery but now may have an opportunity to access these spaces.

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