The Liberal government faces a slowing economy and an uphill battle in the polls as it prepares to table its 2024 federal budget on Tuesday.
Global News spoke to Canada’s former parliamentary budget officer ahead of April 16, who said he’s expecting a tight spending plan with little room for surprises or hotly demanded relief on cost-of-living issues for Canadians.
Heading into the third budget under the government’s current mandate, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been on a cross-country tour plugging a series of measures that will be included in the coming year’s spending plans.
Since late March, the Liberals have announced just over $37 billion in new spending and loans planned for the federal budget, according to a Global News analysis. Some of the Liberal announcements have spending spread out over multiple years, while other items come with little to no price tag attached.
1:59 Budget 2024: Here’s what Canadians want from the federal government
All the while, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has pledged that the Liberals will not increase the federal deficit past its current $40.1-billion levels.
Liberals have little fiscal room to ‘manoeuvre’: former PBO
Kevin Page, Canada’s first PBO and the president of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa, tells Global News the Liberals are facing significant headwinds in trying to keep the deficit stable while also meeting the needs of Canadians.
“Their challenge is, they just don’t have a lot of fiscal room to manoeuvre,” Page explains.
An RBC economics report released last week also warns of consequences for Canadians if governments are tempted to stray from their fiscal anchors, whether that be maintaining the overall size of the deficit or keeping a steady debt-to-GDP ratio.
1:51 CEOs urge CPP investment in Canadian companies in open letter to Chrystia Freeland
Governments, federal or provincial, keeping to their fiscal anchors instils “confidence in voters and financial markets,” author Rachel Battaglia, an economist with RBC, wrote.
Canada’s sovereign triple-A credit rating heading into the 2024 federal budget is “strong,” Battaglia said, but the country risks a downgrade if Ottawa were to stray from its fiscal anchors.
A hit to this key credit rating would trickle down to large banks, and by extension, the rates paid by their customers on products like mortgages, according to Battaglia.
“Even though deeper deficits and higher associated sovereign borrowing costs may feel like a distant problem for many Canadians, the impact has the potential to trickle down to most households and businesses,” Battaglia wrote.
“Therefore, all Canadians have a stake in seeing the federal government meet its fiscal targets.”
Another tactic to increase revenues when economic growth is stalling is by hiking or introducing new taxes. While Freeland has pledged that no new taxes will be levied against the middle class in the 2024 budget, she has been mum on whether taxes on wealthier individuals or corporations could be in the cards.
That’s giving the Liberals a bit more spending room than they would’ve otherwise had amid pressures to maintain the deficit, Page says. But he expects this bandwidth will have been mostly eaten up with the already announced measures, and he does not expect any new big-ticket items will be unveiled on April 16.
Some 44 per cent of those surveyed in March said they wanted help with rising daily expenses, followed by 38 per cent who prioritized health-care investments and 33 per cent asking for a reduction in personal taxes.
“Pocketbook issues dominate the list of the things that Canadians want to see addressed in the budget,” Sean Simpson, senior vice-president at Ipsos Global Affairs, told Global News earlier this month.
But Page sees little room for those kinds of relief efforts in the 2024 budget if the Liberals want to maintain the deficit.
The best the Liberals can do is make it look to Canadians like they’re “trying their best” when it comes to acting in a fiscally responsible way while providing support to the most vulnerable, he says.
“I don’t think we’re going to see much new that can make a big difference for families in 2024 with respect to affordability,” Page says.
“It’s possible we see some small measures, but they will be small and targeted.”
The already announced efforts to get more homes built are “incremental steps” to solving the housing crisis, but Page says the country is “millions of units short” of what’s needed to restore affordability. Even efforts to put more housing supply in the pipeline will take years before homes are move-in ready, he says.
“It’s not something that we’re going to solve in the 2024 budget,” Page adds.
Liberals could have better prospects in 2025
Ipsos’s latest political polling from March 28has the Conservatives up 18 points over the incumbent Liberals, who are themselves only three points ahead of the NDP. Simpson said the Liberals will need to “stop the bleeding” to avoid falling into third place behind the NDP.
A federal election is currently slated for no later than October 2025, but could be called earlier if the Liberals fail a confidence vote or bring down the government themselves.
Page expects a “pretty thin budget” this year, with some major items reserved for a hopeful pre-election budget next year.
But if the Liberals do get to put up another budget before the next federal election is called, Page thinks the incumbent party might find better fortunes in 2025.
By that point, many economists, as well as the Bank of Canada, forecast that the economy will be starting to recover amid anticipated cuts to the central bank’s benchmark interest rate.
1:32 Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 5%
This time next year, the Liberals might find rising revenues will boost their electoral prospects and give them more ammunition to deliver a 2025 budget that would have a better chance at restoring voter confidence in the government, Page says.
“The government knows it’s going to be a hard year economically for Canadians and probably a hard year politically,” he says. “But I think they’re hoping that this will rebalance when we get to 2025.”
FORT ERIE, Ont. – Midnight Mascot has been installed as the early 5-2 favourite for the $400,000 Prince of Wales Stakes.
The second jewel of the OLG Triple Crown will be run Tuesday at Fort Erie Racetrack. Midnight Mascot received the No. 5 post in the race draw Thursday.
Midnight Mascot is trained by Mark Casse and will be ridden by Kazushi Kimura.
Midnight Mascot will headline the 10-horse field, one that will feature five horses that ran in the King’s Plate on Aug. 23 at Woodbine Racetrack. Filly Caitlinhergrtness, the Plate winner trained by Kevin Attard, won’t be running at Fort Erie.
Midnight Mascot finished third in the Plate.
Pierre is the 4-1 second pick for the 1 3/16-mile dirt race while Jokestar is the third at 9-2. The horses were fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Plate.
Pierre and Jokestar are trained by Attard and owned by Al and Bill Ulwelling. They’ll all be chasing a second straight Prince of Wales title after winning last year with Velocity.
Attard, who has won this race three times, will have four horses running Tuesday. The others are Bedard and Airosa.
The field, with post, horse, jockey and odds, includes: 1. Airosa, Rafael Manuel Hernandez. 15-1; 2. Vitality, Jose Luis Campos, 6-1; 3. Wyoming Bill, Ryan Munger, 10-1; 4. Passioned, Jean Briceno, 10-1; 5. Midnight Mascot, Kimura, 5-2; 6. Jokestar, Emma-Jayne Wilson, 9-2; 7. Bedard, Sahin Civaci, 10-1; 8. Scat Factor, Kirk Johnson, 30-1; 9. Pierre, David Cohen, 4-1; 10. Essex Serpent, Patrick Husbands, 8-1.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 5, 2024.
MADRID (AP) — With his 900th career goal, Cristiano Ronaldo got the best of Luka Modric in the duel of veterans in the Nations League on Thursday.
The 39-year-old Ronaldo became the first man to reach the 900-goal milestone in official matches for club and country by scoring in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Modric’s Croatia.
“It means a lot,” Ronaldo said. “It was a milestone I wanted to reach for a long time. I knew I would reach this number, because as I continue to play, it would happen naturally.”
Spain was held at Serbia in its first match since winning the European Championship, while San Marino won a competitive game for the first time by beating Liechtenstein.
Ronaldo vs. Modric
Ronaldo and Modric, the former Real Madrid teammates, are nearing the end of their careers but are still going strong with their national teams. Modric will turn 39 on Monday.
Ronaldo found the net in the 34th minute at the Stadium of Light in Lisbon to put Portugal up 2-1. He put his hands to his head and dropped to his knees during the celebration.
“It was emotional because it’s a milestone,” he said. “It seems like any other milestone, but only I know, and the people around me, how hard it is to work every day, to be physically and psychologically fit, to score 900 goals. It’s a unique milestone in my career.”
It was Ronaldo’s 131st international career goal.
He was coming off a disappointing performance at the European Championship, when he went scoreless in all five of Portugal’s games before it was eliminated in a penalty shootout by France in the quarterfinals.
Diogo Dalot had put Portugal ahead seven minutes into the match, and his own-goal in the 41st made it 1-1.
Lewandowski strikes
Another veteran who left his mark on Thursday was 36-year-old Robert Lewandowski, who scored from the penalty spot in Poland’s 3-2 win at Scotland. Poland’s winner came with another penalty kick — converted by Nicola Zalewski — seven minutes into stoppage time.
Vancouver Whitecaps captain Ryan Gauld came off the bench in the 71st minute to make his Scotland senior debut.
Ronaldo, Modric and Lewandowski have combined for 542 national-team games and 239 goals heading into this week.
Spain held
Spain was held to a 0-0 draw at Serbia in its first match since winning Euro 2024. La Roja has been the hottest team in Europe recently, having won the 2023 Nations League, Euro 2024 and the men’s gold medal at the Paris Olympics.
Youngsters Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, the stars at Euro 2024, were kept in check from the start.
Spain has another away game next, against Switzerland in Geneva.
San Marino finally wins
San Marino defeated Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first-ever competitive win thanks to Nicko Sensoli’s 53rd-minute goal.
It had beaten Liechtenstein by the same score in 2004, but in a friendly.
San Marino, a tiny nation surrounded by Italy, is No. 210 — last — in FIFA’s world rankings. Liechtenstein isn’t far ahead at No. 199.
The victory came in Group D1 of the competition.
Other results
Denmark defeated Switzerland 2-0 in Group A4. In League C, Sweden beat Azerbaijan 3-1 and Northern Ireland got past Luxembourg 2-0. Slovakia won 1-0 at Estonia and Belarus and Bulgaria drew 0-0.
The European qualifying groups for the 2026 World Cup will be drawn in Zurich in December, likely with seedings decided by FIFA world rankings updated in November after Nations League group play ends.
