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2020 Stock Market Crash: Worse Times Ahead for Stocks – The Motley Fool Canada

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After the 2020 stock market crash, stocks are whipsawing wildly on a mix of good and bad news. Investors are reacting strongly to any positive or negative developments. Even after the latest rally, which saw the headline Dow Jones Industrial Average gain 1,000 points in a single session, stocks are still substantially lower than at the start of 2020. The Dow has lost 23% for the year to date while the S&P/TSX Composite Index has shed 21%.

The recent rally can be attributed to Washington’s announcement of a US$2 trillion stimulus package to battle the economic impact of the coronavirus.

Some of the biggest beneficiaries will be among the sectors most harshly affected by the coronavirus, includes airline, retail, manufacturing and entertainment stocks. While the latest announcement has breathed life into beaten down stocks and sparked a renewed sense of optimism, it may not be enough in the short term.

Poor short-term outlook

Based upon the experience of Italy and Spain, there is likely to be a surge in U.S. coronavirus cases and related fatalities. When that occurs, it will spook an already extremely nervous Wall Street, causing stocks to tumble further.

Even recent stimulus measures won’t be enough to prevent further falls and a prolonged bear market. Economic stimulus including rate cuts announced by central banks earlier this month failed to prevent the Dow from suffering its worst one-day fall ever.

Canadian investors should brace for further weakness. The measures being implemented across the globe to contain the coronavirus and slow its spread are weighing heavily on the economy. Social distancing, mandated quarantine periods and travel bans have caused consumption to decline sharply.

That in turn is weighing on business confidence and earnings. While cheaper credit, because of lower rates, typically sparks higher consumption and business activity, this won’t occur due to the banning of most public activities and implementation of curfews.

The latest oil price collapse, which sees the Brent benchmark trading at around US$30 per barrel, will do little to invigorate the economy for those same reasons.

Some pundits are even claiming that despite the latest stimulus led rally, the stock market has yet to bottom and will fall a further 10%. The economic fallout from the pandemic will be severe and could be worse than the Great Recession of 2008 just over a decade ago.

There are claims by some economists and financial institutions that the U.S. economy has already fallen into recession. If the U.S., the world’s largest economy, slows countries around the globe will follow.

That global recession will be deep, sparking a bear market that could be longer than the one which emerged during the Great Depression and ran for around 17 months.

What investors should do

Despite the 2020 stock market crash and poor short-term outlook for stocks, this is not the time to panic. The key is to ignore the sensationalist headlines.

Instead, focus on your reasons for investing, stick to your plans and stay invested for the long haul. While the short-term outlook for stocks is poor, the economy will certainly return to growth.

By the end of 2019, Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 28% compared to 2008. The S&P/TSX Composite benefited from that economic growth, gaining a whopping 62% since the end of 2008 even after the latest rout.

Some of Canada’s top dividend growth stocks have performed even better. The largest mortgage lender, Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY)(NYSE:RY). After including dividends, it delivered a stunning 253% or a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just under 11%.

Canada’s largest bank will bounce back from the latest market downturn. Royal Bank possesses solid fundamentals including a high credit quality evident from its conservative gross impaired loans ratio of 0.45%. It is also adequately capitalized with a common equity tier one capital ratio of 12%.

Royal Bank’s focus on implementing efficiencies, including expanding its digital footprint, will lower costs and boost profitability —  an important strategy to be undertaking in the current difficult operating environment.


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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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