adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Business

2024 housing market and interest rate forecasts – Mortgage Rates & Mortgage Broker News in Canada

Published

 on

As we look back at the year that was, we can say 2023 was a year that tested the resilience of Canadian mortgage holders. And as we look forward, there’s optimism that 2024 will be the year of rate relief.

Building on the 400 basis points worth of rate hikes by the Bank of Canada in 2022, borrowers faced an additional three quarter-point hikes in 2023, raising payments for some variable-rate borrowers and those renewing their mortgage.

While mortgage delinquency rates have risen slightly from their record lows, borrowers have largely proven resilient thus far. By the Bank of Canada’s own estimation, roughly 40% of mortgage-holders have already seen their mortgage renew at a higher rate.

The bulk of renewal pain, however, is coming up in the next several years. Analysts estimate about $251 billion in mortgages will come up for renewal in 2024, with another $352 billion worth in 2025.

While the Bank of Canada expects that at least 8 in 10 mortgage holders will face a “relatively large” mortgage payment increase by the end of 2025, expected interest rate cuts in the years ahead should help ease that payment shock.

Falling interest rates in 2024 are also expected to support a rebound in home sales and prices. But forecasters differ on what those growth rates could look like.

For a look at what 2024 could hold in store for interest rates and the country’s housing market, we’ve compiled a selection of forecasts below…

Real Estate Market

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)

  • 2024 home sales forecast: 490,257 (+9% year-over-year)
    • “National home sales are forecast to rebound…as interest rates get closer to, and eventually start, trending down and housing markets make a turn back towards their long-term trends. This forecast would place activity close to the pre-pandemic 10-year average, below levels recorded in 2007, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.”
  • 2024 home price forecast: $690,916 (+1.5%)
    • Commentary: “Despite a lot of monthly volatility, this forecast would actually mark the fourth year in a row that the annual national average price has remained in the $680,000-$700,000 range…Prices in Alberta are expected to outperform the rest of Canada in 2024, with a forecast gain of 4.8% compared to 2023. In contrast, Ontario is forecast to see virtually no growth in prices next year (+0.2%).”
  • Link

Royal LePage

  • 2024 aggregate house price forecast by Q4: $843,684 (+5% year-over-year)
    • Commentary: “We see 2024 as an important tipping point for the national economy as the majority of Canadians acknowledge that the ultra-low interest rate era is dead and gone,” said Phil Soper, President and CEO, Royal LePage. “We believe that the ‘great adjustment’ to tolerable, mid-single-digit borrowing costs will have a firm grip on our collective consciousness after only modest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.”
  • Link

Re/Max

  • 2024 national average price increase: +0.5% year-over-year
    • Commentary: “The slower market we’ve been experiencing across the country [earlier] this fall could be an early indicator of an active 2024, as reflected in the modest price increase and sales outlook for next year, and the balancing of conditions in several regions across the country,” said Christopher Alexander, President of Re/Max Canada.
  • Link

RBC Economics

  • 2024 home resales forecast: 496,000 (+9.4% year-over-year)
    • Commentary: “We expect home resale activity to stay especially quiet in Ontario and British Columbia until interest rates fall materially. And then, the recovery that will follow is likely to be gradual at first. Buyers in other markets may respond more quickly to easing rates. Those in the Prairies (including Calgary) still display strong confidence levels at this juncture.”
  • 2024 home price forecast by Q4: $799,900 (+1.9%)
    • Commentary: “The good news is the latest bout of housing affordability deterioration has likely run its course and the third quarter will prove to be the cyclical-worst point for RBC’s affordability measure. We see the situation improving from now on as home prices drift lower or stabilize in the majority of markets, and household income continue to grow at a solid pace.”
    • “Nonetheless, there’s a very long way to go before affordability is meaningfully restored. Buyers in many of Canada’s large markets will contend with extremely difficult conditions for some time.”
  • Link

TD Economics

  • 2024 home sales growth forecast: +5.2%
  • 2024 home price growth forecast: +0.5%
    • Commentary: “A weaker-than-expected economy poses an important downside risk to the outlook for housing, as it would negatively impact demand and could also precipitate forced selling. Another key risk is that rates will remain higher than forecast, should inflation linger at levels that are higher than we expect. On the opposite end, Canada’s population continues to grow strongly, meaning that housing shortages are likely to persist. This could push prices higher than we anticipate.”
  • Link

2024 interest rate forecasts

As noted above, 2024 could be the year of interest rate relief. Bond markets are pricing roughly 15% odds of a rate cut as early as January. While that’s unlikely, most economists do expect the first Bank of Canada rate cut to happen by mid-year.

Forecasts from most of the Big 6 banks see the overnight target rate falling back to at least 4.00% by the end of 2024 from its current rate of 5.00%.

Bond yields, which lead fixed mortgage rates, are also expected to have reached their peak. Since early October, the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield has now fallen more than a full percentage point, resulting in numerous fixed mortgage rate cuts by the big banks and other mortgage lenders across the country.

The following are the latest interest rate and bond yield forecasts from the Big 6 banks, with any changes from their previous forecasts in parenthesis.

Target Rate:
Year-end ’24
Target Rate:
Year-end ’25
5-Year BoC Bond Yield:
Year-end ’24
5-Year BoC Bond Yield:
Year-end ’25
BMO 4.00% (-50bps) NA 3.20% (-45bps) NA
CIBC 3.50% 2.50% NA NA
NBC 3.25% (-75 bps) 2.75% (-25bps) 2.60% (-75bps) 2.85%
RBC 4.00% 3.00% 3.30% 3.20%
Scotia 4.00% 3.25% 3.50% 3.50%
TD 3.50% 2.25% 2.90% (-40bps) 2.60%

 

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

Published

 on

 

VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

Published

 on

 

MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending