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5 charts show why the global economy is more vulnerable now

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Kevin Frayer | Getty Images

 

Chinese men wear protective masks as they walk in a nearly empty shopping street on February 2, 2020 in Beijing, China

As authorities in China race to contain the spread of a new coronavirus that has killed hundreds, investors are bracing for global economic fallout that some analysts said could be more severe than the SARS outbreak in 2003.

SARS, which stands for severe acute respiratory syndrome, first emerged in China’s Guangdong province before spreading to other countries. The virus claimed around 800 lives worldwide and shaved 0.5 to 1 percentage points off China’s growth in 2003, according to various estimates.

But the new coronavirus — believed to have originated in Wuhan city — has struck China at a time when its economy has grown larger and established greater connections with the world. That means any pressure on China’s growth now would hit the global economy harder than before.

Here are five charts that show how China’s economy has changed since the SARS epidemic.

World’s second-largest economy

Taimur Baig, chief economist and managing director for group research at Singaporean bank DBS, said “the whole world didn’t even notice” when China’s growth slowed by around 1 percentage point following SARS.

“It was just business as usual,” he told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” last week. “Now, China accounts for nearly a-fifth of global growth. China slowing by half a percent would be seismic.”

Services play a bigger role

As with the SARS outbreak 17 years ago, the spread of the new coronavirus is likely to first hit consumer spending. But the decline in consumption this time could be more severe than 2003, some analysts said, especially after authorities shut down much of China in a bid to contain the virus.

Lower consumer spending will pressure China’s services industry, which today account for a larger share of the country’s gross domestic product compared to 2003. That also means any drag from services will weigh more on the Chinese and global economies today.

Tourism spending overseas

Chinese consumers have also been spending big overseas. Since 2014, China has been the largest source country of international tourism expenditure, climbing from seventh place in 2003, according to the World Tourism Organization.

Travel bans and flight cancellations put in place since the emergence of the new coronavirus could curtail Chinese tourism spending overseas. That’s a threat to many economies, especially those in Asia, said Kelvin Tay, regional chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

“If you look at Asia itself, Chinese tourism is now a bigger part of the economy for almost all countries,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.

Major global importer

On the trade front, rising demand within China has made the country the world’s second-largest importer since 2009, data by the World Trade Organization showed.

World’s largest exporter

The virus outbreak could also affect the global economy through China’s exports channel.

China has been the world’s top exporter since 2009, climbing from fourth place in 2003, according to data by the WTO. Countries such as Japan and Vietnam have “a huge amount of reliance on the Chinese supply chain,” said DBS’ Baig, explaining that those economies import materials and parts from China to make their own products to export.

“Not only will China slow and have impact on the global demand, these countries which rely on China for intermediate inputs will also be affected,” he said.

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Chipmakers Are Flashing More Warnings on the Global Economy – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Mounting concern over semiconductor demand is sending shudders through North Asia’s high-tech exporters, which historically serve as a bellwether for the international economy.

South Korean behemoths Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. have signaled plans to dial back investment outlays, while across the East China Sea, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. indicated a similar expectation.

Fading tech demand highlights a darkening picture as Russia’s war on Ukraine and rising interest rates damp activity. The following charts look at the chip industry and its implications for the world economy.

In recent weeks, major chip manufacturers Micron Technology Inc. Nvidia Corp., Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. have warned of weaker export orders. 

Gartner Inc. predicts an abrupt end to one of the industry’s biggest boom cycles. The research firm slashed its outlook for revenue growth to just 7.4% in 2022, down from 14% seen three months earlier. Gartner then sees it falling 2.5% in 2023.

Memory chips are among the most vulnerable segments in the $500 billion semiconductor market to global economic performance, and Samsung and SK Hyinx’ sales of dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, a chip that holds bits of data, are central to Korean trade.

Next year, demand for DRAM is likely to rise 8.3%, the weakest bit growth on record, says tech researcher TrendForce Corp., which sees supply climbing 14.1%. Bit growth refers to the amount of memory produced and serves as a key barometer for global market demand.

South Korea’s exports are bolstered when demand outpaces supply in bit growth. But with supply likely to expand at almost twice the pace of demand next year, exports may be headed for a major downturn.

Signs are rising that trade is already starting to deteriorate. Korea’s technology exports slipped in July for the first time in more than two years, with memory chips leading the falls. Semiconductor inventories piled up in June at the fastest pace in more than six years.

Among potential victims will be Samsung, the world’s biggest memory-chip producer and a linchpin of Korea’s trade-reliant economy.

Samsung recorded rapid sales growth when demand was strong relative to supply. As the chip outlook turns gloomy, shares of Samsung have been declining this year, with occasional rebounds on better-than-expected profits.

Samsung and SK Hynix control roughly two thirds of the global memory market, meaning they have the power to narrow the gap between supply and demand. 

Memory is loosely tied to other types of semiconductors, built by firms such as TSMC that produces chips in iPhones, and Nvidia, whose graphics cards are used in everything from games to crypto mining and artificial intelligence. 

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which includes these firms, has ebbed and flowed together with memory demand in recent years.

Korean exports have long correlated with global trade, meaning their decline will add to signs of trouble for a world economy facing headwinds from geopolitical risks to higher borrowing costs.

Micron Technology, the world’s third-largest memory maker, last week issued a warning about deteriorating demand, triggering a selloff in global chip stocks.

Korea’s stock market has been among leading indicators of the country’s trade performance, with investors dumping shares well before exports slump.

“The trend is important for Asia as its economic cycle is very dependent on tech exports,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis SA. “Fewer new orders and the large inventory pile-up mean Asia’s tech sector will see a long destocking cycle and a shrinking profit margin.”

The International Monetary Fund last month downgraded its global growth forecast and said 2023 may be tougher than this year. 

Deutsche Bank AG sees a U.S. recession starting in mid-2023 and Wells Fargo & Co. expects one in early 2023. A Bloomberg Economics model sees a 100% probability of a US recession within the next 24 months.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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Russia ministry says economic slump less severe than feared – Al Jazeera English

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Economy ministry says gross domestic product to shrink 4.2 percent this year amid sanctions over the war in Ukraine.

Russia’s economy will contract less than expected and inflation will not be as high as projected three months ago, economy ministry forecasts showed, suggesting the economy is dealing with sanctions better than initially feared.

The economy is plunging into recession after Moscow sent its armed forces into Ukraine on February 24, triggering sweeping Western curbs on its energy and financial sectors, including a freeze of Russian reserves held abroad, and prompting scores of Western companies to leave.

Yet nearly six months since Russia started what it calls a “special military operation”, the downturn is proving to be less severe than the economy ministry predicted in mid-May.

The Russian gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink 4.2 percent this year, and real disposable incomes will fall 2.8 percent compared with 7.8 percent and 6.8 percent declines, respectively, seen three months ago.

At one point, the ministry warned the economy was on track to shrink by more than 12 percent, in what would be the most significant drop in economic output since the fall of the Soviet Union and a resulting crisis in the mid-1990s.

The ministry now sees 2022 year-end inflation at 13.4 percent and unemployment of 4.8 percent compared with earlier forecasts of 17.5 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively.

GDP forecasts for 2023 are more pessimistic, though, with a 2.7 percent contraction compared with the previous estimate of 0.7 percent. This is in line with the central bank’s view that the economic downturn will continue for longer than previously thought.

The economy ministry left out forecasts for prices for oil, Russia’s key export, in the August data set and offered no reasons for the revision of its forecasts.

The forecasts are due to be reviewed by the government’s budget committee and then by the government itself.

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China’s premier urges pro-growth policies as economy sputters – Al Jazeera English

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Li Keqiang calls on provinces to bolster growth after consumption and output fall short of expectations.

China’s Premier Li Keqiang asked local officials from six key provinces that account for about 40% of the country’s economy to bolster pro-growth measures after data for July showed consumption and output grew slower than expectations due to Covid lockdowns and the ongoing property slump.

Li told officials at a meeting to take the lead in helping boost consumption and offer more fiscal support via government bond issuance for investments, state television CCTV reported Tuesday evening. He also vowed to “reasonably” step up policy support to stabilize employment, prices and ensure economic growth.

“Only when the main entities of the market are stable can the economy and employment be stable,” Li was cited as saying at the meeting in a front-page report carried in the People’s Daily, the flagship newspaper of the Communist Party.

The meeting came after Monday’s surprise interest-rate cut did little to allay concern over the property and Covid Zero-led slowdown. Economists have warned of even weaker growth and have called for additional stimulus, such as further cuts in policy rates and bank reserve ratios and more fiscal spending.

Li acknowledged the greater-than-expected downward pressure from Covid lockdowns in the second quarter and asked the local officials to strike a balance between Covid control measures and the need to lift the economy. “Only by development shall we solve all problems,” Li said, according to the broadcaster.

Indicating China may resort to more local debt issuance to pump-prime the economy, Li said “the balance of local special bonds has not reached the debt limit” and the country should “activate the debt limit space according to law,” according to the People’s Daily report.

Based on the government budget, local authorities may be able to issue an estimated 1.5 trillion yuan ($221 billion) of extra debt and bonds this year to support infrastructure spending, after top leaders urged better use of the existing debt ceiling limit in a key July Politburo meeting. The arrangement could be approved in August, according to some analysts.

China’s 10-year government yield rose for the first time this week, up one basis point to 2.64% from the lowest in more than two years.

Li urged local governments to accelerate the construction of projects with sound fundamentals in the third quarter to drive investment, the report said, and also asked officials to expand domestic consumption of big-ticket items such as automobiles and support housing demand.

He also stressed the importance of opening up the domestic market to foreign investors, noting that the six major provinces — Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan and Shandong — account for nearly 60% of the country’s total foreign trade and foreign investment.

“Opening up is the only way to make full use of the two markets and resources and improve international competitiveness,” Li was cited as saying.

Li’s appearance suggests state leaders have completed their annual two-week policy retreat in resort area of Beidaihe.

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