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Economy

Canadian dollar hits a three-year high, playing catch-up with oil

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Canadian dollar

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO (Reuters) – The Canadian dollar strengthened to its highest level in three years against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, as oil prices rose and Canadian bond yields climbed at a faster pace than their U.S. counterparts.

The loonie was trading 0.5% higher at 1.2523 to the greenback, or 79.85 U.S. cents, having touched its strongest intraday level since February 2018 at 1.2521.

“The medium term direction for CAD is pretty clear,” said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets in New York. “Unless oil corrects lower, we should see further CAD strength as it slowly catches up to the oil move that has already happened.”

Oil, one of Canada‘s major exports, has rallied more than 30% since the beginning of the year, while the Canadian dollar is up 1.7%.

U.S. crude oil futures settled 2.5% higher at $63.22 a barrel on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed a drop in crude output after a deep freeze disrupted production last week.

Canada‘s economy will see a solid and sustained rebound this year as COVID-19 inoculations ramp up, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said on Tuesday, while warning that Canada‘s red-hot housing market is starting to show signs of “excess exuberance”.

Canadian government bond yields were higher across a steeper curve on Wednesday. The 10-year yield touched its highest since February last year at 1.360% before pulling back to 1.316%, up 7.1 basis points on the day.

The gap between Canadian and U.S. 10-year yields narrowed by 5.5 basis points to 6.4 basis points in favour of the U.S. bond.

 

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Chizu Nomiyama)

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Economy

PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales fell 1.3% to $69.4B in August

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales in August fell to their lowest level since January 2022 as sales in the primary metal and petroleum and coal product subsectors fell.

The agency says manufacturing sales fell 1.3 per cent to $69.4 billion in August, after rising 1.1 per cent in July.

The drop came as sales in the primary metal subsector dropped 6.4 per cent to $5.3 billion in August, on lower prices and lower volumes.

Sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector fell 3.7 per cent to $7.8 billion in August on lower prices.

Meanwhile, sales of aerospace products and parts rose 7.3 per cent to $2.7 billion in August and wood product sales increased 3.8 per cent to $3.1 billion.

Overall manufacturing sales in constant dollars fell 0.8 per cent in August.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

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