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BOC Governor Says Canada Will Lean On Real Estate Because “We Need The Growth” – Better Dwelling

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Canada’s central bank isn’t really that worried about real estate, it appears. Bank of Canada (BoC) governor Tiff Macklem held a Q&A after a speech for the Edmonton and Calgary Chambers of Commerce yesterday. During the Q&A, the governor dismissed concerns about an overheated housing market. In fact, he welcomed its contribution to the economy as something needed.

Canada’s Economy To Further Lean On Housing

When asked if Canada needs new measures to cool the market, the governor wasn’t worried. Macklem responded, “I think right now the economy is weak… I think we need the support.” Further adding, “We need the growth we can get.” Yeah, it’s an odd take, let’s unpack what he may be referencing, if anything at all.

Canadian Residential Investment

Canadian residential investment as a percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Source: Stat Can, Better Dwelling.

One big red flag is Canada’s residential investment as a percent of GDP. Residential investment reached 9.43% of GDP in Q3 2020, up from 7.71% last year. For context, US residential investment peaked at 6.7% in 2006, during their housing bubble. The current rate in the US is just 4.3%, which is still considered high. Reading between the lines, that may have been subtle acknowledgment that Canada doesn’t have much else to lean on at this point. Further, a rise in household debt means a long-term slowdown in growth, which is a gamble they’re taking.

Bank of Canada Is “Surprised” By The Housing Rebound

The governor also stated they were surprised by housing activity during the pandemic. Macklem said, the BoC was “… surprised by the extent and strength of the housing rebound.” Further adding, they only see “some signs of excess exuberance.” It would appear a typical home rising more than the median household income is fairly normal to the BoC.

Canadian Real Estate Prices

The benchmark price of a typical home across Canada, in Canadian dollars. Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Canadians Shift To Living Outside of Cities

The BoC governor also thinks these are “fundamental” market shifts. Macklem continued, “with respect to single family homes, underlying this demand, is a genuine, fundamental shift in preferences.” Adding, people “want more space. They don’t [want to] commute.” This repeats the perspective the central bank shared a few weeks ago in their FSR report. At the time they said, the rise in sales is just a temporary bump, that will subside later in the year.

When does this become a concern? The governor said he’s watching for buyer expectations. He asked rhetorically, “Are people expecting the kind of unsustainable house prices we’ve seen?” Answering himself, “if people start to think those [price gains] go on indefinitely, that becomes a concern.” Must have been his first day looking at Canada’s real estate market.

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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem on whether Canadian real estate needs cooling measures. Feb 23, 2021.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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