Ever since construction began a decade ago, there’s been serious contention between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a huge project straddling the Blue Nile in Ethiopia.
For Ethiopia, the project is meant to offer a solution to its severe power problem, providing electricity access for an estimated 65 million Ethiopians. Ethiopia also says its neighbours will benefit from cheap energy exports.
Egypt relies on the Blue Nile for freshwater, and maintains that the dam represents an existential threat.
For its part, Sudan has had to balance its own concerns about water supply with the dam’s promise of cheap power and flood control. Recently it appears that Sudan has firmed up on its opposition to the Dam.
For my doctoral thesis, I am studying the geopolitical realities on the governance of the Nile’s resources. This isn’t the first time that relations in the region have been strained by dam politics – its history is a long one and the tensions felt today are rooted in the imperial past.
The beginning
It started with the occupation of Egypt by Britain in 1882. Egypt became independent in 1922, though British influence remained strong for another three decades until the last British troops left in 1956.
Great Britain ’s textile industries depended on Egyptian cotton, which relied on irrigation using the River Nile’s water. To conserve water during the rainy seasons for dry seasons, British hydrologists developed a plan called the Century Storage Scheme.
The plan envisaged the regulation of the Nile waters along different seasons and years (drought and flood) by building several dams and reservoirs in Ethiopia and other upstream countries. The plan ruled out storing the Nile waters in downstream countries, mainly because of immense water losses that could happen due to evaporation.
But the plan had one major flaw. It didn’t consider the interests of nine upstream countries including Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. Its aim was to safeguard Great Britain’s interests.
Aswan High Dam
The biggest project on the Nile was initiated by Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt’s prime minister between 1954-56 and then president until 1970. Nasser wanted to build a dam which would end Egypt’s dependency on upstream countries by storing the Nile waters in Egypt. It would also end flooding and bring more electricity to Egyptians.
Nasser decided to build the dam at Aswan, creating a big reservoir in the northern border between Sudan and Egypt. The reservoir, called Lake Nasser, stretches about 125 miles from Egypt into Sudan where it is called Lake Nubia.
The Aswan High Dam was initially described by British hydrologists as “not worthy of serious consideration” and “full of mad ideas for the Nile.” This was because it was the antithesis of the Century Storage Scheme and the basin-wide approach that dominated water management on the Nile under the British.
Sudan gained its independence in 1956. The new government opposed the colonial treaties, which Great Britain signed with Egypt on behalf Sudan and favoured Egypt.
It also opposed the construction of the Aswan High Dam because of the high social, economic and environmental costs. These, according to an American historian of East Africa and Nile expert Professor Robert Collin, included the forced relocation of tens of thousands of Sudanese Nubians, the destruction of historical cities, the threat of increased in soil salinity and water-logging, and increase seismic activity from the weight of the reservoir on fault lines.
Sudan instead favoured the Century Storage Scheme which involved a series of smaller dams in Uganda and Ethiopia, together with the Jonglei Canal. The canal was meant to divert the flow of the White Nile, bypassing the vast swamps of the Sudd, in South Sudan, where water is lost to evaporation. The construction of the Jonglei Canal started in 1978 but was suspended in 1983.
As part of the Century Storage Scheme, in 1956 Sudan went ahead with plans to construct the Roseires Dam on the Blue Nile and expand the country’s Gezira irrigation scheme.
To implement their respective projects, both Egypt and Sudan tried to get funds from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, later to become the World Bank. However, since the Roseires Dam would alter the flow of the Nile, and the Aswan High Dam would have significant socio-economic impacts on Sudan, the bank required the two countries reach an agreement to get the funds.
This proved impossible. The Sudanese parliament refused to consent to the construction of the Aswan High Dam while Egypt was committed to start the construction work.
A dramatic turn of events in 1958 changed the course of history.
General Ibrahim Abboud deposed the Sudanese government and Abboud signed the 1959 Nile Waters Treaty with Egypt and consented to the construction of the Aswan High Dam.
Egypt completed the construction of Aswan High Dam in 1971. The dam continued to operate in favour of Egypt, providing water for irrigation and generating a huge amount of electricity.
The Grand Renaissance Dam
Aswan High Dam and the 1959 Nile Waters Treaty, which totally disregarded the interest of upstream countries, also frustrated Ethiopia. The dam, which evaporates 10-15 BCM of waters annually, would also foreclose Ethiopia’s future use of the Nile.
In 1959 Ethiopia commissioned a survey on the Blue Nile for irrigation and hydropower. The survey, carried out by the US Bureau of Reclamation, issued its final report in 1964 which proposed various projects including a “border dam,” which later became the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Ethiopia was not immediately able to implement the project due to a lack of finance. Egypt also used extensive diplomatic connections and the colonial-era 1929 and 1959 agreements to prevent the construction of any major infrastructure projects on the tributaries of the Nile.
Finally, after decades of political stability and economic growth, Ethiopia managed to raise a significant portion of money for the dam’s construction from people locally and from its diaspora. The construction of the dam eventually began in 2011.
Basin-wide cooperation
The dam now joins a number of existing dams, including the Aswan High Dam and the Roseires Dam. This makes a basin-wide cooperation and management imperative.
Given the ever increasing importance of coordinated management and operation downstream and upstream dams due to climate change, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt should manage all dams through the Nile Basin Commission – an organisation envisaged in the Cooperative Framework Agreement.
The Agreement, which was negotiated for a more than a decade by all riparian states to prepare a basin-wide framework to regulate the inter-state use and management of the Nile River, is accepted by all states except Egypt and Sudan. Egypt and Sudan should, therefore, accede into it.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
