adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Politics

The Politics Behind Erdogan's Central Bank Decision – Bloomberg

Published

 on


On the same day that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sacked Naci Agbal, his third central bank governor in two years, he also announced Turkey’s exit from the Istanbul Convention, a Council of Europe agreement designed to protect women. Both decisions immediately drew international criticism, but they are best understood in the context of domestic politics — and specifically, Erdogan’s re-election campaign.

Turkey is not required to go to the ballot box before 2023, for both presidential and parliamentary polls. But the president seems to have decided to hold an early vote to alter the dynamics of the political landscape. That is the only way to explain recent moves, including the decision by the public prosecutor to close down the second largest opposition party, the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party.

Erdogan’s prospects aren’t looking good: Opinion polls show a steady decline in support for his Justice and Development Party. The March survey by the polling agency Research Istanbul placed the ruling party’s  share of the vote below 30% for the first time since almost two decades.

The numbers reflect a growing perception among Turks that their leader of 18 years has mismanaged the economy. Per capita income has been on a declining trend since the 2013 peak of $12,000 in nominal terms; in 2020 it had declined to $7,700. The hyper centralization of power introduced by the transition to a presidential system in 2018 has handicapped governance. Decision-making has become less predictable, creating uncertainties for economic agents domestic and foreign. As a result, private investments have dropped, making it harder for the government to cope with rising unemployment.

To stand any chance of stretching his rule into a third decade, Erdogan needs to change the status quo — and his decisions over the weekend are designed to do just that. The president blames Agbal’s positive interest-rate policy, which led Turkey to adopt the second-highest nominal interest rate in the OECD after Argentina, for hindering economic recovery and job creation, and consequently his popular support. Sahap Kavcioglu, the new governor, is a former lawmaker from his party and a firm believer in the Erdogan orthodoxy that high interest rates cause inflation.

With a pliant new governor at the helm of the bank, Erdogan is likely to return to expansionary monetary policy, easing credit conditions and lending practices. In his view, a credit stimulus is essential for an economic rebound.

The market begs to differ: The lira and stocks both plunged on Monday. Investors believe that credit-fueled growth is at the root of the economy’s underlying vulnerabilities, and expect a cycle of currency depreciation, inflationary pressures and shortfall in capital flows. If the lira comes under sustained pressure, the government will further deplete its reserves to shore it up.

Ironically, by forcing a reversal in monetary policy and undermining the independence of the central bank, Erdogan may have imperiled his election prospects.

 Nor is it clear that his decision to abandon the Istanbul Convention will turn the tide in his favor. Paradoxically, the agreement was originally Ankara’s brainchild. It was championed by Turkey within the Council of Europe and eventually turned into a multilateral agreement at the Summit of the European organization held in Istanbul back in 2011.

By pulling Turkey out of the agreement, the president is hoping to appeal to far-right Islamists whose suppose is critical to his reelection and who dislike the convention for its provisions designed to enhance the protection of minority lifestyles including LGBT rights.

The president has recently been lashing out at the LGBT community in his speeches. But there was little public support for a withdrawal from the agreement, especially at a time when the country is having difficulty in stemming violence again women. World Health Organization data show that 38% of women in Turkey are subject to violence from a partner in their lifetime, compared with about 25% in Europe. Erdogan’s opponents will undoubtedly use his withdrawal from the convention in their bid to draw women voters away from the president and his party.

Even for a politician with a penchant for high-risk, high-reward strategies, these two decisions represent major political gambles for Erdogan.

    This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    To contact the author of this story:
    Sinan Ulgen at sulgen@edam.org.tr

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    Bobby Ghosh at aghosh73@bloomberg.net

    Let’s block ads! (Why?)

    728x90x4

    Source link

    Politics

    Youri Chassin quits CAQ to sit as Independent, second member to leave this month

    Published

     on

     

    Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.

    He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.

    In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.

    Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.

    He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.

    Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.

    He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

    Source link

    Continue Reading

    Politics

    ‘I’m not going to listen to you’: Singh responds to Poilievre’s vote challenge

    Published

     on

     

    MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.

    “I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.

    “I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”

    Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”

    “I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.

    “It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”

    While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.

    “I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.

    Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.

    Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.

    “I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.

    New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.

    The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.

    It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.

    While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.

    Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.

    He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.

    Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

    The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.

    With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.

    The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.

    The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

    Source link

    Continue Reading

    Politics

    Social media comments blocked: Montreal mayor says she won’t accept vulgar slurs

    Published

     on

     

    Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.

    She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.

    Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.

    They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.

    However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.

    Her statement on X is closed to comments.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

    Source link

    Continue Reading

    Trending