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This little known investment could double in seven years: GMO – MarketWatch

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If you want to retire earlier or richer than you had expected, look east.

Like Spinal Tap, the famous and fake rock group, you want to be big in Japan. Or, even better, small in Japan.

So, at least, argue white-shoe, ultra-cautious Boston money managers GMO, in a surprising break from their generally gloomy outlook.

Cheap so-called “value” stocks in Japan, and especially cheap small value stocks in Japan, are a stunning investment bargain in a world of overpriced assets, GMO strategists Drew Edwards and Rick Friedman argue in a new research paper.

Thanks to low stock prices, booming profit margins, huge cash piles, and a backdrop of economic reform, Japanese value stocks could double your money over the next seven years, GMO’s number-crunchers estimate.

(In hard numbers they see large Japanese value stocks earning 5.2% a year on average after inflation, and small value stocks 8.2% a year. Meanwhile U.S. inflation expectations are currently about 2.3% a year.)

By contrast GMO thinks almost everything else is going to lose you money in relation to inflation. They see our broad U.S. stock index funds, such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY,
+0.47%

or the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index mutual fund
VTSMX,
+0.68%
,
losing us 40% of our purchasing power by 2028.

The important caveat here is that everyone can make forecasts and many prove to be wrong. GMO has been too gloomy on stocks for most of the past 20 years. On the other hand, it has made some spectacularly good calls against the mainstream. The best known are the house’s predictions in advance of the 2000-3 dot com crash and the 2007-9 global financial crisis. But there are others. In the summer of 2007, for example, while (correctly) warning against markets in general, GMO singled out one area of comparative bargain: So-called U.S. “quality” stocks, a technical term rather than one of mere approbation, meaning U.S. stocks that met certain numerical standards in terms of balance sheet strength, cash flow, profitability and earnings stability.

If you’d followed their advice you’d be laughing. The MSCI index of U.S. quality stocks has quintupled your money since — vastly outperforming the S&P 500. (Oh, and they weathered the financial crisis much better as well.)

The trick for investors may be to treat forecasts like these as “directional” (as management consultants like to say) rather than specific. In a nutshell: GMO finds Japanese value stocks, and especially small value stocks, a bargain.

Corporate profit margins there have boomed since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was elected nearly a decade ago and introduced economic reforms, GMO calculates. About half the nonfinancial companies on the Tokyo stock exchange now have more cash on their balance sheets than debt (the figure for U.S. companies: Just 15%). Like U.S. companies after the Great Depression, Japanese companies responded to the 1990s collapse of their financial bubble by playing defense and hoarding cash. Many are now sitting pretty.

There are ways for ordinary investors to play this simply in a 401(k), IRA or other retirement account.

The iShares MSCI Japan Value ETF
EWJV,
+0.58%

is the most obvious. Fees are just 0.15% a year, or $15 a year on every $10,000 invested. This ETF is heavily weighted toward large-company stocks.

The WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund
DFJ,
+0.34%

wades into small company value stocks, where GMO finds the best bargains. But fees are higher, at 0.58%, or $58 a year per $10,000 invested.

Will we make it big by going small in Japan? We’ll have to wait and see.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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