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Canadian economy tops growth forecasts, avoids second-wave downturn with ‘pleasant upside surprise’

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A banner hangs outside a restaurant in Toronto’s Financial District on Jan. 4, 2021.

Fred Lum/The Globe and Mail

The Canadian economy showed resilience over the winter months, managing to escape the second wave of COVID-19 without a decline in overall output.

Real gross domestic product rose 0.7 per cent in January, outrunning a previous estimate of 0.5 per cent, Statistics Canada said Wednesday. That leaves economic activity about 3 per cent lower than prepandemic. A further 0.5-per-cent expansion is estimated for February.

Heading into the winter, the fear was that economic output would fade somewhat on account of rapidly rising COVID-19 cases that prompted tighter restrictions. Notably, the Bank of Canada forecast that real GDP would drop at a 2.5-per-cent annualized pace in the first quarter.

Instead, the economy has emerged from the second wave in seemingly better shape, helped by resurgent commodity prices, a breathless housing boom and minimal job losses outside of public-facing industries. That leaves Canada on course for a year of stellar growth that undoes a great deal of the damage inflicted by the pandemic.

“This is yet another pleasant upside surprise,” said Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter in a note to investors. “Given that we are now facing yet new restrictions in many regions, the economy’s ability to soldier forward through the shutdowns is truly encouraging.”

Wednesday’s report was emblematic of the localized nature of economic troubles. Real GDP fell in January in the hospitality, retail and transportation industries, all subject to tighter public-health measures that month. Still, that weakness was offset elsewhere.

Wholesale trade jumped 3.9 per cent in January, bolstered by imports of machinery and demand for building supplies. Manufacturing rose 1.9 per cent, supported by higher sales and inventories. Mining, oil and gas extraction expanded 2.7 per cent – a fifth consecutive monthly increase – as oil sands facilities in Alberta ramped up production.

Over all, growth was stronger in the goods-producing sector (1.5 per cent) than in services (0.4 per cent).

The impact from the real-estate industry was apparent. Construction activity rose 1.4 per cent, with residential construction growing 3.1 per cent. Furthermore, Statscan noted that banks benefited from a 7.1-per-cent increase in households’ total mortgage debt, relative to a year earlier.

As ever, economic momentum is tenuous, in light of rising COVID-19 cases in much of the country. B.C. is grappling with a third wave and recently imposed a three-week “circuit breaker” lockdown that prohibits dine-in service at restaurants and bars, among other things.

“A faster distribution of vaccines would go a long way to easing the weight of the pandemic on the economy,” said Toronto-Dominion Bank senior economist Sri Thanabalasingam in a note. “The pace of the rollout has accelerated in recent weeks, but it must continue to do so in order to allow for a safer reopening of the economy through the spring and summer. Supply-chain issues or vaccine hesitancy could further complicate the economic recovery.”

For now, the third wave hasn’t provoked a rethink of Canada’s recovery path. The median estimate from private-sector economists is that real GDP will grow 5.4 per cent this year, and several domestic banks have pencilled in growth of around 6 per cent.

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Source: – The Globe and Mail

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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