The International Monetary Fund is striking an optimistic tone on Canada’s recovery from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, upgrading its view of Canada’s economic growth this year by the most among all advanced economies.
In its World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, the IMF said it now expects the Canadian economy to grow five per cent over the course of 2021, 1.4 percentage points higher than its previous forecast. That’s even more optimistic than the Bank of Canada’s expectation for four per cent economic growth this year, though the central bank’s last official estimate was made in January as COVID vaccines were just beginning to be administered.
Overall, the IMF is expecting global economic output will rebound six per cent in 2021, and a further 4.4 per cent in 2022. It did warn, however, that significant uncertainties remain as new COVID variants of concern spread and vaccines are rolled out unevenly across continents and countries.
In a release, IMF Economic Counsellor and Research Department Director Gita Gopinath said a multi-speed global economic recovery could give rise to unexpected circumstances, which could put the recovery at risk.
“A high degree of uncertainty surrounds our projections. Faster progress with vaccinations can uplift the forecast, while a more prolonged pandemic with virus variants that evade vaccines can lead to a sharp downgrade. Multi-speed recoveries could pose financial risks if interest rates in the United States rise further in unexpected ways,” she said.
“This could cause inflated asset valuations to unwind in a disorderly manner, financial conditions to tighten sharply, and recovery prospects to deteriorate, especially for some highly leveraged emerging markets and developing economies.”
While the overall global economic outlook is improving, it will take time for output to return to pre-pandemic levels. Among advanced economies, only the United States is projected to exceed pre-pandemic expectations for overall output in 2022. While the Canadian economy has expanded for nine straight months through January, output remains about three per cent below pre-pandemic levels.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
