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Canada potash project may cost BHP growth elsewhere

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BHP Group is under pressure from Canada to greenlight a giant potash project when it makes a final investment decision by mid-year but some investors said the world’s biggest miner may obtain better returns by ploughing the funds elsewhere.

The fertiliser ingredient will be in oversupply over much of the next decade, crimping returns from the project, and BHP may be better off investing more in commodities like copper and nickel which are seeing booming demand from the adoption of electric vehicles and solar power, they said.

The Anglo-Australian company would ease investor concerns if it firms up a plan to sell a stake in the project, one investor said. BHP has said a stake sale was an option.

The Jansen project in Canada‘s Saskatchewan province is estimated to cost up to $5.7 billion in the first phase which is expected to take five years and have an annual capacity to produce around 4.4 million tonnes of potash with an estimated mine life of 100 years. It will have capacity for an additional 12 million tonnes in stages thereafter.

BHP has already sunk $4.5 billion into the project, its first foray into potash, led by previous chief executive Andrew Mackenzie. The world’s biggest miner estimates demand for the ingredient could double by the late 2040s to become a $50 billion market.

The project would be Saskatchewan’s largest investment ever, said the province’s Energy and Resources Minister Bronwyn Eyre.

“We’re cautiously optimistic that this year will bring good news for the project. We hope it’s full steam ahead,” she said.

BHP’s annual capital expenditure of as much as $1.1 billion for the project would be significant compared with the $6.3 billion it expects to spend this year, and some investors said the money could be put to better use.

“I can understand the logic of developing it to diversify the earnings stream and create a long-return channel,” said Ben Cleary, portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners in Singapore, which owns BHP shares.

“But I would be surprised not to see the majority of capex spend on base metals, given how positive they are on the latter. Are they really going to put potash ahead of base metals?”

IDLED CAPACITY

Market economics for potash currently are a challenge, say industry executives.

BHP would compete with Nutrien Ltd, Mosaic Co and K+S AG, all of which operate mines in Saskatchewan.

Nutrien has five million tonnes of idled potash capacity currently, Chief Executive Mayo Schmidt told Reuters earlier in May, though he expects rising demand to absorb that by 2030.

“Both Nutrien and Mosaic have latent capacity that could come on, and it’s certainly going to come on at better economics than a greenfield would,” Mosaic Chief Executive Joc O’Rourke told Reuters in an interview this month.

Some analysts, like Ben Isaacson of Scotiabank, though, are positive on Jansen.

The first phase would not significantly disrupt the market and the steady growth in global potash demand means the extra output will be needed by 2030, he said. Scotiabank in April pegged the probability of BHP approving Jansen’s first phase at 90%.

BHP chief executive Mike Henry has said he was not comfortable with the project’s spending but that a decision on its fate will be taken based on what it sees as the best use of shareholder capital. BHP declined to offer additional comment.

The silver lining in all the spending that has “de-risked” the project is that it may be easier for BHP to sell a stake, said one institutional investor who owns BHP shares and declined to be named because it was against his firm’s policy.

“They do need to start investing (more) in future facing commodities,” said the investor.

“They have said they may look to sell down the project once they have de-risked it. That sort of option could still be on the table.”

 

(Reporting by Clara Denina in London, Jeff Lewis in Toronto, Rod Nickel in Winnipeg and Melanie Burton in Melbourne; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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