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Canadian house prices to jump this year, but will slow in 2022: Reuters poll

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Canadian house prices will rise sharply in 2021, supported by ultra-low interest rates and robust demand driven by massive fiscal support, according to a Reuters poll of analysts who however said risks were skewed to the downside.

Even with the economy at an early stage of recovery, Canada‘s housing market has been on a tear in recent months, with home prices escalating sharply to record highs this year, driven by investor activity and solid demand from first-time buyers.

While Canadian home sales, prices and starts all fell in April compared with record high figures in March as some of the frenzy of previous months began to unwind, the May 11-20 poll of 15 property analysts showed activity would remain strong.

House prices were forecast to rise 15.0% on average this year nationally, the largest expected annual gain since Reuters began polling for 2021 over two years ago and three times the 5.0% February prediction.

“Headlines will probably flag housing market declines in April, but don’t let them fool you…this market is still extremely strong across geography and segment, even if we’ve likely seen peak momentum it’s still a long way back from the moon,” noted Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

(Graphic: Reuters poll graphic on the Canada housing market outlook: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/qzjvqbgzqpx/Canada%20housing.PNG)

Still, the pace of home price gains was forecast to slow over the coming years on expectations of tighter mortgage rules and a hawkish Bank of Canada, which in April was the first among Group of Seven central banks to announce a scale back to its pandemic support.

Home prices were predicted to rise at a much slower pace and average 3.7% next year, lower than 4.0% predicted previously.

That broad trend of double-digit price gains this year followed by a moderate rise next was expected for major Canadian cities as well. In Toronto they will rise 13.9% in 2021 and in Vancouver 10.3%.

But a majority of analysts, 10 of 13, in response to an additional question said the risks to their outlook for the coming year was skewed more to the downside.

In response to another question, 10 of 14 analysts said an interest rate hike would significantly tame Canada‘s housing market activity and prices.

“Canadian households high debt loads make them relatively more sensitive to interest rate changes. The experience of 2018 makes that clear. A series of interest rate hikes brought the rate of home price appreciation to an abrupt halt,” said Brendan LaCerda, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics.

“Robust fiscal stimulus, accelerating inflation and diminishing support from the Bank of Canada all signal higher interest rates in the year ahead. Rising borrowing costs will likely cool down housing market activity.”

Despite affordability remaining a major concern, when asked on demand this year nationally, in Vancouver and in Toronto, a majority of analysts expected an increase across.

“We expect demand to remain robust, but moderation towards more normal levels of activity is expected. Affordability erosion from high prices, increased contract mortgage rates and reversal of some pandemic era purchasing trends due to greater vaccine rollouts contributes to this trend,” said Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union.

“A record pace of home sales and price acceleration is expected to give way to a moderation in the back half of this year”

(For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)

 

(Reporting by Mumal Rathore; Polling by Manjul Paul; Editing by Rahul Karunakar and Marguerita Choy)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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