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Global property markets ready to soar this year

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Residential property markets in major economies will soar this year on huge monetary and fiscal support and amid a recovery from the pandemic, according to Reuters polls, which showed risks for prices skewed to the upside.

Average home selling prices have hit eye-watering levels in 2021 in some countries. That trend is expected to continue, driven by low mortgage rates, swift vaccine rollouts and the easing of restrictions after deep pandemic-induced recessions last year.

The global boom in property prices comes alongside soaring stock markets, which quickly bounced back from a slump on pandemic-driven economic damage and devastating job losses, to focus on unprecedented stimulus and the recovery at hand.

Reuters polls of more than 100 property market experts taken May 11-24 showed big upgrades to house price forecasts for the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia and Dubai compared with just three months back, outpacing expected GDP growth and consumer price inflation.

“Consumer confidence has risen strongly due to the success of vaccination programmes and survey evidence suggests the pandemic has led to more people looking to move home. Supply shortages point to upward pressure on prices in the short term,” said Andrew Harvey, senior economist at Nationwide.

Almost 60% of analysts, or 55 of 92, who responded to a separate question on property markets across the globe, said risks to the outlook were skewed to the upside over the coming year. The remaining 37 said more to the downside.

 

Graphic: Reuters poll graphic on the global housing market outlook, 

 

The trend in the latest Reuters polls showed expectations for strong gains this year followed by slower appreciation in the next few years, moderated by increased supply, lower immigration and as affordability becomes a bigger constraint.

While there has been higher demand for both single- and multi-family homes in cities and towns, when asked how demand for office space would change more broadly over the next few years, respondents were split.

Forty-one of 78 respondents said it would decrease, including five who said decrease significantly, while the remaining 37 said demand for office space would increase, including two who said a significant increase.

“The enforced remote-working experiment of recent months will cause a dramatic demand shift in the office sector, with as many as 50% of office-based employees working from home at least once a week,” said Matthew Pointon, senior property economist at Capital Economics.

“Even with a heroic supply response through substantial conversions and demolitions, we expect vacancy to rise markedly in the next five years and still be elevated in 2030.”

INDIA TO MISS BOOM TIMES

House prices in Australia and Canada were forecast to gain in double-digits this year, while in Dubai they were expected to rise for the first time in six years.

Britain’s housing boom was set to roll on too on ongoing government support alongside increased demand for more living space.

U.S. house prices were expected to race ahead, rising at double the rate expected in February, driven by low supply and cushioned by hefty spending by the White House administration and near-zero interest rates.

“Unexpected demand during the pandemic and chronically tight inventories have pushed home prices well above levels warranted by underlying fundamentals such as employment and income,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

The outlook for the Indian housing market was one notable exception to the global trend.

Indian house prices were predicted to stagnate this year, hurt by a devastating second wave of the coronavirus which has crushed demand and offset government tax rebates and incentives for property developers.

India is currently accounting for one in every three coronavirus-related deaths reported worldwide each day, according to a Reuters tally.

“Normalcy in mobility and housing would remain muted over the next 18 months. But the larger issue of income and jobs also remains muted,” said Ashish Nainan, assistant professor at Saintgits said of the Indian market.

“While the first wave provided some relief to the sector, post the second wave, buyers would become fence-sitters for an extended period.”

 

(Reporting by Shrutee Sarkar in BENGALURU; Additional reporting and polling by correspondents in BENGALURU and LONDON; Editing by Rahul Karunakar)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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