Three of the four biggest months for U.S. trade ever are the latest three months, according to my analysis of government data released Friday.
Three months in 2021 rank among the top 15 ever — the three most recent.
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More trade occurred in March than any month in U.S. history, with May third and April fourth all-time. The Census Bureau data released Friday covers through May.
That strength is not coming from the usual suspects. This will present another data set for financial markets and economists to digest, who are still wrestling with whether inflation is picking up only short-term or more long-term.
On the import side, motor vehicles, often the leading U.S. import, are off 22.62% from pre-pandemic total registered in May of 2019. That’s $3.45 billion.
The value of crude oil, the second-ranked import, was off 21.82% from May 0f 2019. That’s equal to $2.92 billion. The value of gasoline and other refined petroleum products, the seventh-ranked import, is down $514.02 million from May of 2019.
On the export side, the category led by civilian aircraft, which had ranked first for 76 consecutive months, has ranked second to oil three of the last five months, with May totals down 43.35% in May from the same month in 2019, before the pandemic.
Even oil, one of the nation’s fastest-growing exports, is down 5.13% from May of 2019. Motor vehicle parts, a key cog in the automotive supply chain, have yet to recover fully from the pandemic and are down $997.79 million, or 25.05%, from May of 2019.
So how to explain the record growth in U.S. trade?
As with total trade, three of the top 15 exports of all time are this year.
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The growth on the export side, when comparing May of this year to May of 2019, is from:
No. 5-ranked natural gas and other petroleum gases, up $2.06 billion, 79.08%,
No. 6 computer chips, up $1.46 billion, 45.87%,
No. 9 vaccines, plasma and other blood fractions, up $934.31 million, a robust 45.86% from May two years ago.
No. 13-ranked corn, up 172.14%, equal to $1.5 billion.
No. 17 platinum, up $1.07 billion, 301.32% from May 2019.
To be clear, May 2019 was no slouch of a month. It was the second biggest May in history for U.S. exports, behind only May of 2021, and the 12-busiest of all time. Overall exports increased a meager 1.07% between May 2019 and May 2021.
March, April and May of 2021 have been strong years for U.S. imports as well as total trade.
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On the import side, if not cars and oil, then what? And do these fast-growing imports suggest inflationary pressures?
Well, the effects of Covid-19 can still be seen in several high-flyers, including two of which registered values in May of 2021 more than $1 billion above the May 2019 total.
No. 18, a primary lumber category that has been well-publicized for being caught up in the supply chain shortage brought on my home repairs and other construction,. was up $1.33 billion in May, an increase of 245.14% over May of 2019.
No. 21 platinum is up $1.16 billion, an increase equal to 255.83%.
No. 3 computers are up $799.71 million, a less stratospheric 9.84% that is nevertheless slightly better than twice the rate of growth for all U.S. imports. Technology tends not to be hit by inflation; in fact, it is often quite the opposite, In this case, think home offices needing to be outfitted. Still. One year after the pandemic struck.
No. 10 computer chips were up $948.57 million in May, when compared to May of 2019, an increase of 35.26%.
No. 30, a category dominated by non-surgical rubber or latex gloves, was up $982.40 million, an increase of 418.42%. Think all those people wearing those blue gloves to serve you.
No. 40 exercise and gym equipment, is pumped up as well, increasing $525.35 million, a 87,07% jump. More than a few people didn’t like what they saw in that full-length mirror while stranded at home — and those sales seem to still be strong.
As was the case with exports, on the import side, it isn’t like May 2019 was a down year, making it easier to post big percentage gains this May. May of 2019 was the sixth biggest month in U.S. history.
Given the strong month of May, it should come as no surprise that U.S. trade is still running at a record pace, with overall trade at $1.79 trillion, a 4.36% gain on the record pace set in 2019. Exports stood at $692.28 billion through May, up a sliver, 0.83% above the 2018 record pace. Imports topped $1.09 trillion, an increase of 6.55% over the 2019 pace.
For the first time ever, the U.S. trade deficit topped $400 billion in the first five months of a year, ending at $401.34 billion. The percentage of trade that is a U.S. export, which tends to run somewhat parallel to the trade deficit, was at its lowest level since 2008, at 38.76%.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
