Climate change, Indigenous and economic issues replace COVID-19 response as top of mind
July 16, 2021 – Active speculation that the country is no more than a month away from a federal election campaign means political leaders are already trying to pierce the long-deserved summer reverie of Canadian voters.
In the earliest days of this horse-race, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that would-be voters put the parties most likely to end up forming government in a statistical tie – with the incumbent Liberals under leader Justin Trudeau a mere two points ahead of the Conservative Party led by Erin O’Toole (33% versus 31%). The NDP remains in third place at 20 per cent, with the Green Party (3%) and Bloc Quebecois (7%) in single digits nationally.
These numbers come as focus on the Trudeau government’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic falls to its lowest point since the crisis began.
Handling of the pandemic has been a relative strength for the Liberal government over the last year and a half. Now, just one-in-five (19%) identify it as a top issue, down from 45 per cent in March. Replacing this issue in the public consciousness are matters of climate change, economic recovery, the size of the deficit, and Indigenous issues, the latter of which has picked up notable traction in recent months.
And while issues may galvanize voters, they appear to be less inspired by the leaders in main contention. As the favourability of Trudeau and O’Toole decline, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet enjoy slight net positive favourability.
As for the prospect of another Liberal victory – the nation is split. While few say they’d be “thrilled” (6%), a significant segment say it’s an outcome that would leave them “content” (33%). The rest are less sunny about it: one-quarter would be unhappy with that result (25%), while close to three-in-ten would be distraught (28%).
More Key Findings:
While the Liberal lead is slim, it is concentrated in key regions of the country. The party leads the CPC by four points in British Columbia and Ontario, and is competitive with the BQ in Quebec, well ahead of the Conservatives.
Prime Minister Trudeau has an approval rating of 40 per cent this quarter. Just nine per cent strongly approve of his performance, while 39 per cent strongly disapprove.
Three-in-five Canadians (58%) have an unfavourable view of CPC leader Erin O’Toole, the highest level since he took over leadership of the party
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Part One: Top Issues
Top national issues
Which voters care about what – and where?
Part Two: Federal leaders
Trudeau approval
Opposition leaders
Part Three: Vote intention
Competitive picture sees Liberals lead by two points
Regional vote intent
Age and gender
Part Four: Feelings about a third Liberal victory?
Part One: Top Issues
When a federal election is called this year, it will take place in an exceptional time in Canadian history. The nation is coming out of – and actively working to prevent the prolongation of – a once-in-100-year pandemic that has dominated the lives of potential voters for nearly 18 months. As COVID-19 loosens its grip on Canadians, their priorities are shifting to other issues, including another potential global crisis in climate change and the urgency of stimulating an economy that dipped into the worst recession since the Great Depression amid lockdowns and closures.
Top national issues
As nearly 80 per cent of the eligible population has been jabbed with at least one dose of a vaccine — with half having received two — and as countrywide daily case counts plunge to levels not seen since last summer, concern for COVID-19 has plummeted down the list of issues Canadians care most about.
Even as recently as June, the coronavirus response was the second highest priority for the public. Now, just one-in-five Canadians say it is among their top three broad concerns for the country. In its stead, health care and climate change have risen to their own level of heightened priority, followed by key economic issues:
In the face of continuing confirmations of the number of unmarked graves at former residential schools across the country, Indigenous issues continue to be prioritized at levels much higher than those noted over the past 18 months.
Which voters care about what – and where?
The country, however, is not unified in its concern over the environment. Albertans are primarily concerned with the economy, the energy sector, and the federal deficit. Those in Saskatchewan also put these three issues at top of mind, while every other region of the country prioritizes climate change among its top three concerns. Conspicuously absent from the regional priorities list is COVID-19 response. That issue does not rank in the top three in any region of the country:
Priorities also vary for different party supporters. The economy, and issues related to it including the growing deficit and taxes, top the list for those who say they will support the Conservative Party. Potential Liberal and Bloc Quebecois supporters are more keyed into discussions about the future of health care, while all non-Conservative voters currently rank climate change among their top three national concerns:
Part Two: Federal leaders
Trudeau approval
A majority continue to disapprove of the Prime Minister – even as half of Canadians now say he has done a good job of handling the pandemic. Over half (56%) say they moderately disapprove or strongly disapprove of him, while just 40 per cent say they strongly approve or moderately approve:
Strong disapproval of Trudeau is also at a pandemic peak and is nearing a return to pre-COVID-19 levels when over 40 per cent of respondents strongly disapproved of him:
While over half of all age and gender groups voice net disapproval of Trudeau, he enjoys the most support from women aged 55 and older, importantly, the largest voting block in the 2019 election. That said, among the second largest voting block, men over the age of 55, he enjoys the strongest disapproval, with two-thirds saying they moderately or strongly disapprove of him:
Opposition leaders
Little has changed for Conservative leader Erin O’Toole over the last month. While his 58 per cent unfavourable mark is a new low (or high) since he took over party leadership, opinions towards him are statistically identical to those from June as he continues to experience an overall unfavourable view from the electorate:
O’Toole’s unfavourability is at majority levels among all age and gender groups, though men over the age of 54 offer him a 43 per cent favourability – his highest such mark:
The Liberals and Conservatives can only look enviously at the favourability of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet. Both enjoy net favourable ratings amongst the electorate (Blanchet in Quebec only). On the other hand, and more importantly, Bloc and NDP supporters may in turn look enviously at Liberal and Conservative vote intent levels.
Meanwhile, voters aren’t warming up to embattled Green leader Annamie Paul, whose party is considering revoking her membership as the fight over her leadership grows ever more public, and publicly uncomfortable. While two-in-five (39%) don’t know enough to form an opinion, slightly more (42%) see her in an unfavourable light:
Jagmeet Singh’s net favourability is driven by younger demographics, in particular women under the age of 35. Within this group, 64 per cent view him favourably, while just 21 per cent disagree:
In terms of net favourability, only Jagmeet Singh and Yves-Francois Blanchet receive a positive score. Each of the other three major federal party leaders are much worse off:
Part Three: Vote intention
Competitive picture sees Liberals lead by two points
Federal vote intention is competitive, with the Liberals and Conservatives locked in a neck-and-neck race. One-in-three (33%) say they would vote for a third Liberal term if an election were held, while 31 per cent would support the opposition CPC. Despite having the most optimistically viewed leader, the NDP garners just 20 per cent of the vote:
The picture remains largely unchanged from recent snapshots. The largest gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals this year was in January, when five percentage points separated the two parties. Even at the peak of the Liberals’ pandemic climb in May 2020, the gap between the two parties was six percentage points:
Regional vote intent
The regional picture also looks familiar since ARI last checked in. The Conservatives continue to enjoy majority support in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and a plurality of support from Manitobans, while the three-way NDP-CPC-Liberal split in B.C. has narrowed since June.
In Ontario and Quebec, the Liberals fare well. Trudeau’s party leads by four points in Ontario and leads the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec by three. Importantly, the CPC generates the support of just 16 per cent of voters in Quebec.
Age and gender
Each party will enter a potential election with its own demographic strengths and weaknesses. The Liberals lead by a considerable margin among women over the age of 34, while the NDP hold the advantage with younger women. Men of all ages show a preference for the CPC, though among young men all three parties receive considerable support:
Part Four: Feelings about a third Liberal victory?
Reflecting Trudeau’s majority disapproval noted above, feelings about the prospect of another Liberal victory inspire more anger than euphoria, a far cry from the “Trudeaumania 2.0” of the 2015 election.
Just two-in-five would be pleased with a Liberal majority.
Meantime, 25 per cent say that result would leave them “unhappy” while nearly three-in-ten say they would be outright “distraught”:
Interesting, though they say they would support the Liberal Party if an election were held, just one-in-five supporters of the incumbent party would be thrilled if it resulted in a majority. Half of NDP supporters say a Liberal majority would be fine with them, while CPC voters are near unanimous that it would result in very negative feelings for them:
The people unhappiest about the possibility of a Trudeau majority are in Alberta and Saskatchewan (where the CPC enjoys majority support). A majority in Alberta (57%) and half (49%) in Saskatchewan say they would be “distraught” by that outcome, while those in Ontario and on the east coast in the Atlantic provinces would be happiest if that came to pass:
A plurality of women of all ages, and of men under the age of 35, would be “content” with a Liberal majority, while a plurality of men age 35 to 54 and men over the age of 55 would be “distraught”:
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from July 14-16, 2021, among a representative randomized sample of 1,625 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
