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OPEC+ Set to Meet as Cartel Edges Toward End of Standoff – Bloomberg

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OPEC and its allies will meet on Sunday, the latest sign that a bitter standoff between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has been resolved.

Oil ministers will meet at noon Vienna time, the group confirmed. Officials have said privately in recent days that a full meeting would only be called if a deal was in reach.

A truce would open the way to more oil coming onto the market, easing a looming supply squeeze and averting an inflationary price spike. It would also put an end to a diplomatic spat that has unnerved oil traders, as the fight between the two long-time allies risked unraveling the broader OPEC+ accord that’s underpinning the recovery in crude prices.

The UAE has been arguing that the way its quota is calculated is unfair. To make its point, the country blocked a deal that the rest of the cartel had agreed to, which would have added 400,000 barrels a day each month.

The collapse of talks briefly sent crude to a six-year high in New York, although prices have dropped since to trade just below $72 a barrel on Friday.

Read: Oil and Dollars: Why the UAE Is Risking a Falling-Out With OPEC+

Earlier this week, there were signs of progress between Saudi Arabia and the UAE toward an outline agreement that would have given the UAE a more generous output quota. Then on Saturday, ministers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain and Oman met online to discuss the matter, delegates said, asking not to be named because the information isn’t public.

The spat has been unusually public as tensions between the two countries go beyond oil diplomacy amid growing economic rivalry. As the ministers of each country used media interviews to make their case, memories were stirred of the 2020 price war, and Abu Dhabi’s veiled threat later that year to leave the alliance.

“Over the past year it has become increasingly clear that a necessary if not sufficient condition for OPEC+ cohesion is alignment between not only Russia and Saudi Arabia, but also the UAE,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former White House official, predicting a deal would be done. “Odds favor success.”

Read: High-Stakes Oil Diplomacy Puts Future of OPEC+ Deal at Risk (1)

If there is a deal on Sunday, it is unclear how quickly additional supplies can be delivered to the market. August sales volumes are largely locked in and most Gulf countries are preparing for an Islamic holiday that will close government offices and businesses for most or all of next week.

Without extra output from OPEC+, the International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday that the oil market will “tighten significantly” and potentially damage the economic recovery.

The UAE’s dispute with OPEC+ centers around its demand for a higher production limit next year, in return for backing an extension of the cartel’s current agreement from April 2022 until December 2022.

At the previous OPEC+ meeting, Abu Dhabi asked to reset the baseline for its production cuts to about 3.8 million barrels a day next year, potentially increasing its production limit by more than 600,000 barrels a day.

Last week, the UAE was ready to set its new baseline at 3.65 million barrels a day, one delegate said. Another delegate said that figure was likely to change.

Oil analysts have warned that the UAE’s demand could open a “Pandora’s Box” for OPEC+ as other members seek better terms to redress grievances of their own. Sure enough, Iraq is also pursuing a higher production baseline, according to a delegate, who didn’t specify the number it’s requesting or when it would take effect.

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    Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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    TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

    Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

    Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

    SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

    The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

    WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

    SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

    SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

    SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

    The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

    ___

    Yuri Kageyama is on X:

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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    Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

    “There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

    “We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

    Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

    On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

    If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

    These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

    If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

    However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

    He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

    “Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

    Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

    The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

    Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

    Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

    Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

    Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

    Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

    In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

    “Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

    Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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    RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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    TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

    The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

    The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

    RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

    The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

    RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

    Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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