adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Economy

The coronavirus could be much worse for China's economy than SARS – CNN

Published

 on


The virus outbreak escalated just before the new year, one of China’s most significant economic events. Chinese consumers spent more than 1 trillion yuan ($145 billion) last year on holiday shopping, dining, entertainment and travel, according to state news agency Xinhua.
Extensive travel restrictions and fears about the virus mean people aren’t spending as much this week. But the extended holiday — to February 2 nationwide and for another week beyond that in Shanghai and several provinces — will impact millions of people in other ways as government offices and schools remain closed.
How the coronavirus is already hurting global business
Major companies such as Tencent (TCEHY), Huawei and Alibaba (BABA), will feel the effects, too, as head offices remain shut. Tencent (TENC) has told its roughly 54,000 employees that it will be extending holidays until February 9.
Exactly how big the economic hit will be is hard to predict. China hasn’t come to a complete standstill — the Shanghai Stock Exchange is reopening on February 3. Grocery stores and food delivery services are still up and running, even in areas under lockdown.
ING economist Iris Pang said Wednesday that the outbreak would knock a modest 0.3 percentage points off China’s first quarter growth.
But Tommy Wu, analyst at Oxford Economics, said the impact could be worse than the SARS outbreak in 2003, given the coronavirus is spreading rapidly and coincides with the holiday travel rush. Economists at Nomura warned that the outbreak could knock more than two percentage points off growth in the first quarter — larger than the quarterly drop registered during SARS.
Patrick Perret-Green, an economist with research firm AdMacro, said the hit to China’s annual growth rate could be even more severe.
“There will be no quick recovery. China was growing strongly [during SARS], as was the rest of the world,” he said. “Now China and the global economy is like a patient on dialysis, and somebody just pulled an IV out.”

A big hit to growth

Before the outbreak escalated this month, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank had forecast China’s annual economic growth to fall to about 6%, down from 6.1% in 2019.
Perret-Green said the outbreak and measures to contain it could push China’s 2020 GDP growth rate near levels last seen in 1990, when it was 3.9%, according to World Bank data.
The Wuhan virus is the last thing China's economy needs right nowThe Wuhan virus is the last thing China's economy needs right now
“Officially it may be closer to 4.5% and possibly the reality could be close to zero,” said Perret-Green, who suggested the government severely overstates its GDP figures to begin with.
Margaret Yang, an analyst at brokerage firm CMC Markets, said the “adverse economic impact is enormous.”
All sectors will likely feel the effects of the delay in getting back to work, she said in a research note Tuesday, singling out transportation, tourism, entertainment, retail and commercial property.
The Wuhan coronavirus has already killed 132 people, and infected over 6,000 others in China, but is not yet as lethal as the 2003 SARS outbreak. SARS had a roughly 10% fatality rate, compared to the estimated 3% for the coronavirus right now.
But the economic costs aren’t only about how deadly the virus is, according to Andrew Batson and Ernan Cui, analysts at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics.
“These costs are instead going to be determined by the measures China’s government takes to contain its spread — measures which have rapidly escalated to an unprecedented severity,” they wrote in a research note on Tuesday.
Travel and tourism will have an outsized effect, Batson and Cui said. They noted that the sector raked in 514 billion yuan ($74 billion) during the seven-day holiday in 2019, equivalent to 2% of first quarter GDP.

Travel industry suffering

There has already been a plunge in the number of trips made during the holiday. Liu Xiaoming, China’s vice minister for transport, told reporters on Sunday that the overall number of trips made across the country on the first day of the Lunar New Year fell nearly 30% from a year ago. Travel by plane and train fell more than 41%, he added.
Major travel companies, hotels and airlines are waiving cancellation fees and offering refunds through most of February. Some airlines are suspending services.
British Airways suspends all flights to China as coronavirus spreadsBritish Airways suspends all flights to China as coronavirus spreads
Meanwhile, major tourist spots including museums, Beijing’s Forbidden City and even Disney’s (DIS) parks in Shanghai and Hong Kong have shuttered their doors. Beijing and other cities across China also canceled Lunar New Year celebrations, trying to limit crowds.
“This will mean a permanent loss of revenue from tourist activities, as the canceled excursions are not going to be repeated after the holiday is over,” wrote Batson and Cui.
Even after the extended vacation ends, China won’t be returning to business as usual. Many people will likely remain cautious, staying indoors and avoiding crowded areas.
— CNN’s Vanessa Yung, Serenitie Wang and Yong Xiong contributed to this report.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

Published

 on

 

VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

Published

 on

 

FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

Published

 on

 

ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending