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What will Canada’s 4th COVID-19 wave look like? Here’s what the experts, data say – Global News

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The fourth wave of COVID-19 that public health experts have been warning about for months has arrived.

“The latest national surveillance data indicate that a fourth wave is underway in Canada and that cases are plotting along a strong resurgence trajectory,” said Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer, at a press conference Thursday.

Read more:
Fourth wave of COVID-19 now underway in Canada, Dr. Theresa Tam says

However, experts say this wave might look a little different than previous ones. Here’s what could happen.

It’s already here

If the word of the chief public health officer of Canada isn’t enough, data from PHAC shows a clear rise in cases.

“We are seeing an increase in numbers, and it’s mostly amongst the unvaccinated,” said Dr. Cora Constantinescu, a pediatric infectious diseases specialist with the University of Calgary.

“Our hospitalizations are going up, at least in Alberta. ICU stays are going up as part of the numbers from our chief medical officer of health, and R0, which is how many people one person infects, is going up, which is all a sign of an outbreak or a wave.”

Delta will drive it

According to preliminary data from the Public Health Agency of Canada, the Delta variant has essentially taken over in Canada. It was only about eight per cent of cases during the week of May 9, 2021.

By July 11, it was 78 per cent — though the data remains incomplete, so this number could change.

However, public health experts have no doubt that Delta is driving the fourth wave.

“The Delta variant is a very highly contagious variant with a very high R0,” said Craig Janes, director of the school of public health sciences at the University of Waterloo.

“So it just means that we’re going to see probably this doubling (of case numbers) fairly quickly. With each week you’re going to see increasing cases.”


Click to play video: 'Concerns about holding federal election during 4th wave'



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Concerns about holding federal election during 4th wave


Concerns about holding federal election during 4th wave

“Although we’re heading into the fourth wave driven by the Delta variant, the good news is that millions of Canadians have rolled up their sleeves to help build a strong wall of vaccination production,” Tam said Thursday.

The unvaccinated are most at risk

Experts agree that people who aren’t vaccinated — including children under 12 who are too young to be eligible for the shot — are most at risk in this wave of the pandemic.

“They call it the ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated,’” Dr. Anna Banerji, an infectious diseases specialist with the University of Toronto, told Global News earlier in the week.

“The vast majority of people that will get COVID will be the unvaccinated people. So, adults who continue to be unvaccinated or under-vaccinated and children under the age of 12 that are not eligible for vaccination right now.”


Click to play video: 'Beyond the facts: Why some Canadians remain vaccine hesitant'



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Beyond the facts: Why some Canadians remain vaccine hesitant


Beyond the facts: Why some Canadians remain vaccine hesitant

With the combination of the Delta variant affecting children in a way that original strains of COVID-19 didn’t and lower vaccination rates in younger people, “We’re going to see a lot of younger people getting sick and winding up in the hospital,” Janes said.

Ontario recently started releasing data on hospitalization numbers that include vaccine status.

At first look, unvaccinated people represent 81 per cent of non-ICU hospital patients with COVID-19 in the province. Partially-vaccinated people represent 8 per cent and fully-vaccinated people are 11 per cent.

However, it’s worth remembering that most Ontarians — 64 per cent — are fully vaccinated right now. So, taking that into account, the unvaccinated are 15 times more likely to be in hospital with COVID-19 than people who are fully vaccinated: a rate of 1.5 per 100,000 compared to 0.1 per 100,000.

Read more:
How to reach the vaccine-hesitant – What experts, reluctant Canadians say

Alberta is showing similar figures. According to the government website, 92 per cent of hospitalized cases since January occurred in unvaccinated people, or in people who got sick less than two weeks after their first dose. Unvaccinated people account for the vast majority of people with COVID-19 currently in Alberta hospitals and ICUs.

“I think the picture has changed for adults because of vaccination and because of our fantastic rate of vaccination in Canada,” Constantinescu said.

Read more:
Doctors predict potential 4th wave of COVID-19 could hit Canada’s youth

“I think this has changed for adults to a huge extent. We’re not seeing the same hospitalization and death, but for children, it’s the same. So because our kids are unvaccinated, the only way our children are safe is if the numbers in our society are low.”

Hospitalizations might not match case numbers

Because of the high vaccination rate, epidemiologists suggest that we might not see hospitalizations stay as closely linked to case numbers as they were in the past.


Click to play video: 'COVID-19 case numbers in Ontario surpass 500'



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COVID-19 case numbers in Ontario surpass 500


COVID-19 case numbers in Ontario surpass 500

“You’ll see cases going up, but without the corresponding increase in hospitalization,” Janes said. He thinks that this is because older people, who are most likely to end up in the hospital, tend also to be the most-vaccinated group.

So even if younger people get infected, they likely won’t be going to hospital in the same numbers as older people were earlier in the pandemic, he thinks.

We might be seeing this now in the U.K., he said, where case numbers are rising but hospitalization isn’t at the same rate.

Public health measures need to maintained to control it

How do we stop the fourth wave? “Get vaccinated!” said Constantinescu.

“If you haven’t had the first dose, have the first dose,” she said, but, “the second dose is much more magical.”

Because children can’t be vaccinated, it’s especially important that those around them are, she said.

Aside from vaccination, she thinks that it’s a good idea to continue to wear masks indoors. “There’s no doubt in my mind that when indoor masking went down, COVID came up again,” she said.

Finally, if you’re feeling sick, even with just a sore throat, you should stay home, she said.


Click to play video: 'Federal election amid fourth wave & schools reopening? Dr. Bogoch shares reaction and the risks involved'



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Federal election amid fourth wave & schools reopening? Dr. Bogoch shares reaction and the risks involved


Federal election amid fourth wave & schools reopening? Dr. Bogoch shares reaction and the risks involved

Over time, Janes said, “This pandemic may end in terms of waves of hospitalizations and some serious illness, but it’s not going to go away. It’ll just simply become endemic.”

Public health practitioners are most concerned about serious illness, he explained. “It’s really the spikes in hospitalization. I think when those level off, we don’t see those anymore, that’s when I think we can feel we can be somewhat confident that the pandemic is over.”

© 2021 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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As sports betting addiction takes hold in Brazil, the government moves to crack down

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SAO PAULO (AP) — “King” doesn’t disclose his real name. Even clients of his Sao Paulo newsstand have to call him by his moniker. The Brazilian online sports gambling addict lowered his profile after a loan shark threatened to put bullets in his head if he didn’t pay up.

Broke and embarrassed, King sought treatment and support earlier this year.

“I was once addicted to slot machines, but then sports betting was so easy that I changed. I got carried away all the time,” he told The Associated Press.

King’s story is that of many vulnerable Brazilians in recent years. The country has become the third-biggest market in the world for sports betting, following the U.S. and the U.K., a report by data analysis company Comscore said last year. But unlike those countries, rampant advertising and sponsorship have been coupled with an unregulated market. The government is now — belatedly, some say — striving to get a handle on the epidemic.

On a recent evening, King’s Gamblers Anonymous meeting took place in an improvised classroom inside a church, with coffee and cookies to keep everyone awake, and supportive messages scrawled onto the blackboard. One that’s become ubiquitous in Brazil and beyond: “Only for today I will avoid the first bet.”

King and other attendees, all Christian, started a prayer and the meeting began.

King said his financial problems arose from his addiction to online sports betting, chiefly on soccer.

“I miss the adrenaline rush when I don’t bet,” he said before the gathering. “I have managed to stop for a couple of months, but I know that if I do it once again, even a small bet, it will all come back.”

Driven by the pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic was a key driver for Brazilians embracing sports betting. King said he transformed almost every sale during that time into a bet. His hook was the non-stop advertising on TV, radio, social media as well as sponsorship of local soccer teams’ jerseys. He asked for bank loans to pay his gambling debts and then, to cover those, went to the moneylender. His total debt now amounts to 85,000 reais ($15,000) — impossible to pay off with his monthly income of 8,000 reais.

Digging oneself out of debt in Brazil is especially daunting with its sky-high interest rates. Loans from Brazilian banks could add interest of almost 8% per month to the borrowed sum, and from loan sharks could be even more.

Four Gamblers Anonymous meetings attended by the AP in October featured discussions about difficulties paying down debts, forcing working-class members to postpone housing payments and cancel family vacations.

Some members of impoverished Brazilian families have used welfare money for betting instead of paying for groceries and housing, official data suggests. In August, beneficiaries of Brazil’s flagship program Bolsa Familia spent 3 billion reais ($530 million) on sports betting, according to a report from the central bank. That was more than 20% of the program’s total outlay in the month.

A host of gambling related problems

Sports betting was made legal in 2018 in a bill signed by former President Michel Temer. The subsequent turmoil has recently been setting off alarm bells, with addicts venting on social media and media reports of people losing huge sums.

On Oct. 1, the economy ministry prevented more than 2,000 betting companies from operating in Brazil for having failed to provide all the required documents. Soccer-loving President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said in an interview on Oct. 17 that he will shut down the entire market in Brazil if his administration’s new regulations — presented at the end of July— fail to work. And Brazil’s Senate on Oct. 25 opened an investigation into betting companies, focusing on crime and addiction.

“There’s tax evasion, money laundering of organized crime, the use of influencers to trick people into betting. These companies need to be audited,” Sen. Soraya Thronicke, who proposed the inquiry, told journalists in Brasilia.

Sérgio Peixoto, a ride-sharing app driver in Rio, is one of many lower-middle-income Brazilians who have reduced their spending due to sports betting debt. Peixoto’s debt currently amounts to 25,000 reais ($4,400). His monthly income is four times less than that.

“It stopped being a game, it wasn’t fun. I just wanted to get the money back, so I lost even more,” said Peixoto, 26. “I could have invested that money. It would surely have given me more benefits.

Pressure to bet

Pressure on people to gamble is everywhere. Current and former soccer players, including Vinicius Júnior, Ronaldo Nazário and Roberto Rivellino, are among the poster boys for local and foreign brands. All but one of the top-tier soccer clubs have betting companies among their main sponsors, with their name and logo emblazoned on their kits. There have been cases of kids and teenagers setting up accounts using their parents’ personal information and money, multiple local media outlets have reported.

Brazil’s economy ministry estimates that Brazil’s sports betting market had $21 billion in transactions last year, a 71% increase compared with the first year of the pandemic, 2020.

The ministry’s newly presented regulations include facial recognition systems for gamblers to bet, the identification of a single bank account for transactions involving sports betting, new protections against hackers and the government-authorized domain, bet.br, which will host all betting sites that are legal in Brazil. Once they are in place, come January, between 100 and 150 betting companies will continue to operate in the South American nation.

The changes in Brazil have prompted some companies to take preemptive action. A report by Yield Sec, a technical intelligence platform for online marketplaces, said several betting companies voluntarily restricted their operations in different places after the latest editions of the European Championships and Copa America in the hopes of presenting “the best possible license application face to the Brazilian authorities.”

Magnho José Santos de Sousa, the president of the Legal Gambling Institute, a betting think tank, said Brazil is currently “invaded by illegal websites that have licenses in Malta, Curação, Gibraltar and the United Kingdom.”

De Sousa expressed hope that the new regulations for advertising, responsible gambling and qualification of sports betting companies will transform the country’s deregulated arena into a more serious one that doesn’t exploit the vulnerable.

“The whole operation could turn from water into wine,” he said.

Gamblers Anonymous in high demand

Meantime, the demand for Gamblers Anonymous meetings in Sao Paulo has grown so much in recent years that the weekly gathering, in place since the 1990s, was no longer enough. Many groups have added a second day in the week to help new people recover, mostly sports bettors.

Earlier in October, a group on Sao Paulo’s northern edge admitted a man who was struggling with sports betting and card games. The 13 other people in the room stressed that he wasn’t alone.

“Welcome,” one long-time attendee said, in a greeting that has become a regular for the group. “Today, you are the most important person here.”

___

Dumphreys reported from Rio de Janeiro.



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Saskatchewan’s Jason Ackerman improves to 6-0 at mixed curling nationals

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SAINT CATHARINES, Ont. – Saskatchewan’s Jason Ackerman remained undefeated on Wednesday with a 7-4 win over Newfoundland and Labrador’s Trent Skanes at the Canadian mixed curling championship.

After going down 3-1 through four ends, Ackerman (6-0) outscored Skanes (3-3) 6-1 the rest of the way, including three points in the seventh end.

Alberta’s Kurt Alan Balderston also earned a win, defeating New Brunswick’s Charlie Sullivan 9-2 in another matchup in the final draw.

The win improved Balderston’s record to 4-2 and sits in third in Pool B.

The top four teams from each pool will play four more games against the survivors from the other pool. The remaining three teams from the pool will play three more seeding games to help set the rankings for next year’s event.

The championship final is scheduled for Saturday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Oilers fall 4-2 to Golden Knights in McDavid’s return from injury

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EDMONTON – Noah Hanifin had a pair of goals as the Vegas Golden Knights won their first road game of the season, coming from behind to shock the Edmonton Oilers 4-2 on Wednesday.

Jack Eichel had a goal and two assists and Mark Stone also scored for the Golden Knights (9-3-1), who have won two in a row and six of their last seven. The Knights entered the game 0-3-1 on the road this year.

Brett Kulak and Zach Hyman replied for the Oilers (6-7-1), who have lost two straight despite getting captain Connor McDavid back from injury earlier than expected for the game.

Adin Hill made 27 saves for Vegas, while Stuart Skinner managed 31 stops for Edmonton.

Takeaways

Golden Knights: With an assist on the Knights’ second goal, William Karlsson has recorded at least a point in all five games he has played this season (two goals, four assists).

Oilers: McDavid was a surprise starter for the Oilers, coming back just nine days after suffering an ankle injury in Columbus and initially being expected to miss two to three weeks. The star forward came into the contest with 11 points (three goals, eight assists) during a six-game point streak versus the Golden Knights, but was held pointless on the night.

Key moment

With just 48.4 seconds left to play, the Golden Knights won a race to the corner and Ivan Barbashev was able to send it out to a hard-charging Hanifin, who sent a shot glove-side that beat Skinner for his second goal of the third period and third of the season.

Key stat

It was Hyman’s third goal in the last four games after the veteran forward went scoreless in his first 10 games this season following a 54-goal campaign last year. Hyman now has five goals in his last six games against Vegas.

Up next

Golden Knights: Head to Seattle to face the Kraken on Friday.

Oilers: Travel to Vancouver on a quick one-game trip to clash with the Canucks on Saturday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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