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Japan’s Economy Returns to Growth, but Virus Threat Looms – The New York Times

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Even as other major economies have roared back to life, Japan’s has been stuck in a cycle of growth and contraction.

TOKYO — Japan stepped back into economic growth in the second three months of 2021, but prospects for a more robust recovery looked dim as the country grappled with its worst coronavirus outbreak since the pandemic began.

The country’s economy, the third-largest after the United States and China, grew at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent during the April-to-June period, recording a quarterly increase of 0.3 percent. The expansion followed a quarter-to-quarter drop of 0.9 percent in the previous three-month period.

Even as other major economies have roared back to life, Japan’s has been stuck in a cycle of growth and contraction as the country has struggled with a persistent spread of infections that has kept its shops, bars and restaurants under constricted schedules.

Currently, case levels in Japan are at record highs. The country reported almost 18,000 new infections on Sunday, with nearly 4,300 in Tokyo, which entered its fourth state of emergency in July. The declaration has since been expanded to cover the country’s other major economic centers.

Just over 36 percent of the population is fully vaccinated, well behind the levels in most other developed nations, and analysts say that the economy will not recover until a large majority of the country has received its shots.

Japan just emerged from a “state of emergency from late April to May that damaged consumption significantly,” said Tomohiro Ota, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs in Japan. But “consumption recovered in June, which improved G.D.P.,” he said, adding that the result was better than analysts had expected.

The country’s slow start in vaccinations has left it struggling to regain economic momentum, even as other countries like the United States and China have seen their growth rocket as people come out of isolation and return to workplaces and shopping centers. G.D.P. in the United States grew 1.6 percent in the second quarter, for an annualized increase of 6.5 percent.

The recoveries in countries like the United States and China have helped Japanese exports bounce back from their nadir in the early stages of the pandemic, but Japanese consumption levels remained weak.

In the first three months of the year, “business dropped because of the state of emergency and the spread of infections, and the recovery in the second quarter has been sluggish, meaning that we’re in a slump. Growth is stagnating,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist of the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

Japan saw a burst of economic activity in the second half of 2020, with two consecutive quarters of growth, as consumers returned to empty restaurants, bars and theaters and began to crisscross the country on trips underwritten by a government recovery plan.

But the winter brought an increase in coronavirus cases, and since then, the country has continued to seesaw between opening up and closing down. The measures are largely voluntary, and each iteration has been less effective at keeping people home. But even so, they have powerfully suppressed economic activity in Japan, which even before the pandemic was struggling to produce more than modest levels of growth.

Now, recovery will depend on whether the government’s vaccination program and other efforts can control the virus’s spread. The country is giving over a million shots a day. If it can keep up that pace, it will top vaccination levels in the United States and Britain by early autumn.

But the appearance of the more contagious Delta variant in Japan raises the possibility that the country may no longer be able to keep the virus at manageable levels. Case numbers have raced up since July, with no end in sight, as control measures seem to have lost their potency.

With people tired of limiting their daily activities and less willing to stay home, Japan may have to make a “qualitative” change to its virus control tactics, such as putting stricter curbs on business activity, said Mr. Ota, the Goldman Sachs economist.

“The current state of emergency can’t really contain people and mobility,” he said, adding that “one possible kind of risk is that the government decides to tighten the regulations once again,” with a correspondingly large impact on consumption.

If the vaccine program proceeds apace, however, Japan “will return to normal economic activity,” said Keiji Kanda, a senior economist at the Daiwa Institute of Research.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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