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Brazil's Guedes says political conflict mars economy – Financial Post

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BRASILIA — Brazil’s Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said on Friday that political conflict is contaminating the economy and overshadowing positive news on economic growth and the prospect of a much smaller primary budget deficit next year.

Guedes spoke to investors as the country’s political climate became even more tense after far-right President Jair Bolsonaro’s request to the Senate https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-asks-senate-impeach-supreme-court-justice-2021-08-20 on Friday to impeach a Supreme Court judge. Critics have accused Bolsonaro of sowing doubts about Brazil’s voting system so he can question next year’s election results if he loses.

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The political clashes are worsening, Guedes said.

“There is much political noise – it is understandable, but it has to be reduced,” Guedes said.

Guedes also said the budget deficit would drop to 0.3% of GDP in 2022, compared to 1.7% this year.

Earlier, Special Treasury and Budget Secretary Bruno Funchal, speaking on the legal news website Jota, said there was room to revise down the 2022 primary budget deficit, currently targeted at 170 billion reais.

Brazil can expect to see a budget surplus in 2023 as the economy begins to grow again, recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, Funchal said.

But Funchal said fiscal uncertainty has been causing market turbulence in the past few weeks, with the real currency weakening against the dollar, as investors worry about the public debt and court-ordered payments the government owes.

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Funchal said any increase in these liabilities is now the main challenge facing the Treasury, one that will hurt spending on social welfare programs and other government policies if it is not dealt with.

The 2022 budget that the Economy Ministry will send Congress will include the payment of 89 billion reais ($16.57 billion) in court-ordered obligations, and discretionary spending will have to be reduced to allow for that, Funchal said. Discretional spending is projected at 120 billion reais next year, Funchal added.

Funchal said the 2022 budget plan will allow 35 billion reais for the Bolsa Familia welfare program for Brazil’s poorest families, the same amount as this year.

Guedes said the program’s monthly payments to Brazil’s poorest families will be increased in 2022 to about 300 reais on average. Guedes assured investors in a webcast that this would remain within the constitutionally mandated spending cap. ($1 = 5.3711 reais)

(Reporting by Marcela Ayres; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Will Dunham)

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Economy

Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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