This year is on pace to be the hottest ever for real estate in Chilliwack and across B.C., but things may cool down in 2022.
After six months of sales, the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) forecasts 4,600 home sales in the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB) area, which would be a 31.6 per cent increase over the 3,496 sales in 2020.
There were 2,927 homes sold over the first seven months of the year, a pace that would top 5,000 if it continued all year.
The third quarter forecast issued this month by BCREA predicts sales to drop by 17.4 per cent to 3,800 for 2022.
“The pace of home sales in the province has slowed in recent months but an unprecedented start to the year still has B.C. on track for a record-breaking year,” according to a BCREA press release.
A somewhat unexpected second-half slowdown arrived, which BCREA says is prompted by eroding affordability and a tightening of mortgage qualification rules.
“However, with the B.C. economy on track for very strong growth this year and next, along with the eventual return of normal migration flows, home sales are anticipated to remain well above long-run average levels into 2022.”
Even with sales moderating slightly in the second half of this year, the BCREA forecasts home sales in 2021 across B.C. will set a new record of 118,350 units before slowing to 100,150 units in 2022.
As for home prices, the average selling price in 2020 in the CADREB area was $577,201, a 10.3 per cent increase over 2019. The average selling price for 2021 is forecast to be $698,000, up 20.9 per cent, a price expected to rise to $716,400 in 2022.
The average price of a home sold in Chilliwack in July 2021 was $722,000, while the average price of a home sold in January was $632,495.
To compare, the average selling price in the next door Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (Abbotsford to White Rock) is expected to top $1 million in 2022, in Greater Vancouver that’s $1.2 million, and for all of B.C., $937,300.
BCREA says that with strong demand being supported by low mortgage rates and a rapidly rebounding post-COVID economy, the more significant concern is whether there will be an adequate supply of listings in the market. While listings hit all-time lows in Chilliwack and other markets in some months this year, the supply situation is even more severe in markets outside the Lower Mainland, where new listings activity has been lacklustre.
“Even if sales come back down to long-run average levels, total listings would need to nearly double to bring markets back into balance,” according to the BCREA. “Prices are under significant upward pressure due to extremely tight market conditions, while buyer preferences are still tilted toward extra space and larger homes. As a result, the average price in 2021 is on track to post a second consecutive year of double digit gains. We are forecasting the provincial average price to rise 16.6 per cent to $911,300 this year, followed by a 2.9 per cent gain next year to $937,300.”
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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.
The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.
However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.
Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.
OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.
The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”
The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.
The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
