Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada would reject claims that his leadership style is similar to that of former U.S. President Donald Trump or British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. But in at least in one respect the comparison is getting closer to hitting its target.
To win back the majority government his Liberal Party lost in the 2019 election, Trudeau is engaging in populist pandering that, if acted upon, could damage Canada’s economic performance.
Consider what happened last week. First the prime minister pledged to ban foreigners from purchasing homes for two years in an effort to cool Canadian house prices. The goal, he said: “No more foreign wealth being parked in homes that people should be living in.”
The next day, Trudeau announced a plan to impose a 3 per cent surtax on Canada’s largest financial institutions, raising their top rate from 15 per cent to 18 per cent. This would apply to profits over $1 billion (US$793 million) earned by big banks and insurers.
Whether originating on the right or left, such proposals will backfire, stifling growth and diverting attention from solutions that would actually help solve the problems that people care about.
Corporate tax rates should be uniform across industries to allow for investment decisions to be driven by economic considerations, not tax policy. By reducing after-tax profits relative to other industries, Trudeau’s surtax would lead to inefficient investment, hurting the productivity of the banking sector and the economy overall.
To make matters worse, the surtax would only apply to Canada’s largest banks and insurers. This makes it a barrier to growth — and arguably targets the most successful financial institutions in the country. Penalizing success is a bad idea.
Trudeau’s proposed restrictions on home purchases by non-Canadian buyers are aimed at improving affordability. Canadians have long chafed at stories of Chinese and Hong Kong investors buying up property in Vancouver, bidding up values there and in other cities, and also at foreign speculation in cheaper housing options. Toronto and Vancouver have already imposed a 15 per cent and 20 per cent tax, respectively, on home buying by foreigners. With housing prices nevertheless continuing their surge, Trudeau is calling for a two-year ban on such purchases.
It’s not as if Trudeau lacks more substantive proposals to address the problem — including a promise to increase the number of houses. But these ideas aren’t getting top billing, even though they would likely be much more effective. Blaming foreigners for domestic problems is more politically appealing.
To be sure, his proposals to go after big corporations and foreigners on behalf of “the people” are a long way from the provocations of Boris Johnson, who was a prominent figure in Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, or Trump, who demonized immigrants and championed protectionism in U.S. manufacturing.
We know that populist governance is bad for economic performance. In a recent paper, economists Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick and Christoph Trebesch studied 118 years of data in 60 countries, including Canada. Out of approximately 1,500 presidents and prime ministers, they identified 50 as populist. Those 50 placed the alleged conflict between “the people” and “the elites” at the center of their campaign and governing style.
According to the authors, Trump fit the bill. Trudeau did not.
The economists found that countries lost around one percentage point of economic growth every year after a populist came to power. This underperformance existed relative both to each country’s long-run growth rate and to the current global growth rate, and held for at least 15 years. They concluded that after a decade and a half, national income per person was 10 per cent lower than it would have been if a populist hadn’t come to power.
“Rising economic nationalism and protectionism, unsustainable macroeconomic policies, and institutional decay under populist rule do lasting damage to the economy,” they said.
Maybe Trudeau’s proposals are just political positioning, intended to help get him through the Sept. 20 election. But if his party is successful, he should think twice before continuing to flirt with this style of leadership. Getting the populist genie back in the bottle is very difficult. And it can do great damage once it’s out.
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.
Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.
The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.
Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.
Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.
Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.
Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.
She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.
The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.
Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.
Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.
The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.
The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.
The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.
The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.
Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.
Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.
In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
